耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型

为提高跨流域引水工程受水水库引水有效性,研究了耦合长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型。首先选取汛期径流预报信息,采用径流预报概率修正先验概率来描述径流的不确定性,建立了贝叶斯随机动态规划模型(BSDP-LTF)。然后将模型应用于碧流河水库,并与仅考虑径流相关的随机动态规划模型(SDP-I)、仅考虑长期预报信息的随机动态规划模型(SDP-LTF)进行比较。比较结果得出在供水保证率基本一致且不增加调度风险的情况下,BSDP-LTF模型相比SDP-I、SDP-LTF模型,可分别减少引水8.2%、4.1%。表明贝叶斯随机动态规划模型BSDP-LTF有效改进了径流描述,提高了跨流域引水的有效性。     

Tsunamis generated by landslides at the coast of conical islands: experimental benchmark dataset for mathematical model validation

This paper presents a new experimental campaign aimed at reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of conical islands. In order to describe in high details the wave field around the island a special acquisition system, which consists of both fixed and movable wave gauges, has been employed. Indeed, each experiment has been repeated several times by changing the configuration of the movable gauges, then obtaining a single virtual experiment with high spatial resolution measurements. Fixed run-up gauges measure the waves at fixed locations to statistically quantify the repeatability of the experiments. Selected experimental results are illustrated within the paper that is mainly aimed at defining a benchmark dataset, available on request, for the development/calibration/validation of analytical and numerical models of tsunamis generated by landslides.     

Activity and kinematic behaviour of deep-seated landslides from PS-InSAR displacement rate measurements

Large landslides and deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) represent an important geo-hazard in relation to the deformation of large structures and infrastructures and to the associated secondary landslides. DSGSD movements, although slow (from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year), can continue for very long periods, producing large cumulative displacements and undergoing partial or complete reactivation. Therefore, it is important to map the activity of such phenomena at a regional scale. Ground surface displacements at DSGSD typically range close to the detection limit of monitoring equipment but are suitable for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. In this paper, permanent scatterers (PSInSAR?) and SqueeSAR? techniques are used to analyse the activity of 133 DSGSD, in the Central Italian Alps. Statistical indicators for assigning a degree of activity to slope movements from displacement rates are discussed together with methods for analysing the movement and activity distribution within each landslide. In order to assess if a landslide is active or not, with a certain degree of reliability, three indicators are considered as optimal: the mean displacement rate, the activity index (ratio of active PS, displacement rate larger than standard deviation, overall PS) and the nearest neighbor ratio, which allows to describe the degree of clustering of the PS data. According to these criteria, 66% of the phenomena are classified as active in the monitored period 1992–2009. Finally, a new methodology for the use of SAR interferometry data to attain a classification of landslide kinematic behaviour is presented. This methodology is based on the interpretation of longitudinal ground surface displacement rate profiles in the light of numerical simulations of simplified failure geometries. The most common kinematic behaviour is rotational, amounting to 41 DSGSDs, corresponding to the 62.1% of the active phenomena.     

Sensitivity analysis of automatic landslide mapping: numerical experiments towards the best solution

The automatic detection of landslides after major events is a crucial issue for public agencies to support disaster response. Pixel-based approaches (PBAs) are widely used in the literature for various applications. However, the accuracy of PBAs in the case of automatic landslide mapping (ALM) is affected by several issues. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ALM using PBA through digital terrain models (DTMs). The analysis, carried out in a study area of Poland, consisted of the following steps: (1) testing the influence of selected DTM resolutions for ALM, (2) assessing the relevance of diverse landslide morphological indicators for ALM, and (3) assessing the sensitivity to landslide features for a selected size of moving window (kernel) calculations for ALM. Ultimately, we assessed the performance of three classification methods: maximum likelihood (ML), feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and support vector machine (SVM). This broad analysis, as combination of grid cell resolution, surface derivatives calculation, and performance classification methods, is the challenging aspect of the research. The results of almost 500 experimental tests provide valuable guidelines for experts performing ALM. The most important findings indicate that feature sensitivity in the case of kernel size increases with coarser DTM resolution; however, the peak of the optimal feature performance for the selected study area and landslide type was demonstrated for a resolution of 20 m. Another finding indicated that in combining a set of topographic variables, the optimal performance was acquired for a DTM resolution of 30 m and the support vector machine classification. Moreover, the best performance of the identification is represented for SVM classification.     

Experimental calibration of vanadium partitioning and stable isotope fractionation between hydrous granitic melt and magnetite at 800 °C and 0.5 GPa

Vanadium has multiple oxidation states in silicate melts and minerals, a property that also promotes fractionation of its isotopes. As a result, vanadium isotopes vary during magmatic differentiation, and can be powerful indicators of redox processes at high temperatures if their partitioning behaviour can be determined. To quantify the partitioning and isotope fractionation factor of V between magnetite and melt, piston cylinder experiments were performed in which magnetite and a hydrous, haplogranitic melt were equilibrated at 800 °C and 0.5 GPa over a range of oxygen fugacities (\({f_{{{\text{O}}_{\text{2}}}}}\)), bracketing those of terrestrial magmas. Magnetite is isotopically light with respect to the coexisting melt, a tendency ascribed to the VI-fold V³⁺ and V⁴⁺ in magnetite, and a mixture of IV- and VI-fold V⁵⁺ and V⁴⁺ in the melt. The magnitude of the fractionation factor systematically increases with increasing log\({f_{{{\text{O}}_{\text{2}}}}}\) relative to the Fayalite–Magnetite–Quartz buffer (FMQ), from ?⁵¹V_mag-gl = ? 0.63?±?0.09‰ at FMQ ? 1 to ? 0.92?±?0.11‰ (SD) at ≈?FMQ?+?5, reflecting constant V³⁺/V⁴⁺ in magnetite but increasing V⁵⁺/V⁴⁺ in the melt with increasing log\({f_{{{\text{O}}_{\text{2}}}}}\). These first mineral-melt measurements of V isotope fractionation factors underline the importance of both oxidation state and co-ordination environment in controlling isotopic fractionation. The fractionation factors determined experimentally are in excellent agreement with those needed to explain natural isotope variations in magmatic suites. Furthermore, these experiments provide a useful framework in which to interpret vanadium isotope variations in natural rocks and magnetites, and may be used as a potential fingerprint the redox state of the magma from which they crystallise.     

克拉美丽山南缘西段盆山耦合机制

克拉美丽山位于准噶尔盆地东部,晚古生代克拉美丽洋盆向北俯冲消亡,西伯利亚板块与准噶尔地块在该地区发生碰撞造山。目前,就石炭纪之后克拉美丽山的构造活动存在持续挤压、拉分、伸展、挤压-伸展转换多种观点,构造样式也各不相同。本文应用断层相关褶皱理论,从盆山过渡带现今构造样式入手来探讨克拉美丽山南缘西段盆山耦合机制。研究结果表明,克拉美丽山西段在石炭纪之后经历了中二叠世早期、早三叠世早期、晚三叠世末期、晚侏罗世-早白垩世、晚白垩世早期和古新世末期6 次构造隆升。前4 期相对稳定沉积,晚白垩世早期,晚古生代地层沿着下二叠统底部的泥岩层滑脱面以叠瓦状构造楔样式向南楔入,构造缩短量大于15 km,现今盆山构造样式初步形成。始新世构造楔遭受后期突破断层改造。始新世后,克拉美丽山大规模的构造活动基本停止,地层遭受剥蚀最终形成现今地质结构。