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41.
We report here on X-ray and IR observations of the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar (AXP) 1RXS J170849-400910. First, we report on new XMM-Newton, Swift-XRT and Chandra observations of this AXP, which confirm the intensity–hardness correlation observed in the long term X-ray monitoring of this source. These new X-ray observations show that the AXP flux is rising again, and the spectrum hardening. If the increase of the source intensity is indeed connected with the glitches and a possible bursting activity, we expect this source to enter in a bursting active phase around 2006–2007. Second, we report on deep IR observations of 1RXS J170849-400910, taken with the VLT-NACO adaptive optics, showing that there are many weak sources consistent with the AXP position. Neither star A or B, as previously proposed by different authors, might yet be conclusively recognised as the IR counterpart of 1RXS J170849-400910. Third, using Monte Carlo simulations, we re-address the calculation of the significance of the absorption line found in a phase-resolved spectrum of this source, and interpreted as a resonant scattering cyclotron feature.  相似文献   
42.
The Northern Marche coastal belt is characterised by a series of NW-SE trending, NE verging folds forming the easternmost edge of the Apennines thrust front. Several geomorphic features suggest that the folds are still growing and hence that the thrust front is active. The occurrence of several historical and instrumental earthquakes (e.g. 1672, 1690, 1786, 1875, 1916, 1930, 1972, all having Me 5.2) suggests that the thrust faults are also seismogenic.We performed a geomorphological analysis to identify and characterise the faults driving the active folds. Our approach assumes that anomalous drainage patterns and deformed Middle-Late Pleistocene alluvial and coastal terraces are indicators of the vertical component of tectonic strain. We identified, mapped and correlated with sea-level fluctuations a sequence of alluvial and coastal terraces. Longitudinal profiles of six rivers (Conca, Foglia, Metauro, Cesano, Misa, and Esino) show that terraces (1) consistently converge downstream, suggesting that they result from regional uplift that dies out near the coast, and (2) some are slightly warped where they cross anticline axes. We interpreted as coastal terraces several land-surface remnants arranged parallel to the present coastline. Lower remnants clearly top off gently landward-tilted coastal deposits. Reconstructed coastal terraces also seem to be tectonically warped.Our results help characterise the geometry and segmentation of a system that generated the largest earthquakes of the region and suggest the loci of potential seismic gaps. We conclude that the earthquake potential of the densely populated northern Marche coastal belt may be substantially higher than currently estimated.  相似文献   
43.
Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.  相似文献   
44.
We review past work using broad emission lines as virial estimators of black hole masses in quasars. Basically one requires estimates of the emitting region radius and virial velocity dispersion to obtain black hole masses. The three major ways to estimate the broad-line emitting region (BLR) radius involve: (1) direct reverberation mapping, (2) derivation of BLR radius for larger samples using the radius-luminosity correlation derived from reverberation measures, and (3) estimates of BLR radius using the definition of the ionization parameter solved for BLR radius (photoionization method). At low redshift (z ? 0.7) FWHM Hβ serves as the most widely used estimator of virial velocity dispersion. FWHM Hβ can provide estimates for tens of thousands of quasars out to z  3.8 (IR spectroscopy beyond z  1). A new photoionization method also shows promise for providing many reasonable estimates of BLR radius via high S/N IR spectroscopy of the UV region 1300–2000 Å. FWHM Mgiiλ2800 can serve as a surrogate for FWHM Hβ in the range 0.4 ? z ? 6.5 while civλ1549 is affected by broadening due to non-virial motions and best avoided (i.e. there is no clear conversion factor between FWHM Hβ and FWHM Civλ1549). Most quasars yield mass estimates in the range 7 ? log MBH ? 9.7. There is no strong evidence for values above 10.0 and there may be evidence for a turnover in the maximum black hole mass near z  5.  相似文献   
45.
Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (TR), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.  相似文献   
46.
Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
47.
We utilized an extensive data set (1977–2013) from a water quality monitoring program to investigate the recovery of a Danish estuary following large reductions in total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) loading. Monthly rates of net transport and biogeochemical transformation of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP) were computed in two basins of the estuary using a box model approach, and oxygen-based rates of net ecosystem production (NEP) were determined. Since 1990, nutrient loading was reduced by 58 % for nitrogen and 80 % for phosphorus, causing significant decreases in DIN (60 %) and DIP (85 %) concentrations. Reductions in nutrient loadings and concentrations reduced annual chlorophyll levels by 50 % in the inner estuary and improved Secchi depth by approximately 1 m during the same period, particularly in the summer period. In the outer, deeper region of the estuary trends in water quality was less evident. Improvements in the inner estuary were strongly coupled to declines in DIN. Thresholds of DIN and DIP concentrations limiting phytoplankton growth indicated that both regions of the estuary were nitrogen limited. NEP rates indicated the development of more net autotrophic conditions over time that were likely associated with higher benthic primary production stimulated by improved light conditions. Box model computations revealed a modest reduction in summer net production of DIP over time, despite the persistence of elevated fluxes for several years after external loads were reduced. Since the mid-1990s, nutrient loading and transformation were stable while nutrient concentrations continued to decline and water quality improved in the inner estuary. The oligotrophication trajectory involved an initial fast transformation and modest retention of nutrients followed by a gradual decline in the rate of improvement towards a new stable condition.  相似文献   
48.
We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   
49.
The ground acceleration is usually modeled as a filtered Gaussian process. The most common model is a Tajimi–Kanai (TK) filter that is a viscoelastic Kelvin–Voigt unit (a spring in parallel with a dashpot) carrying a mass excited by a white noise (acceleration at the bedrock). Based upon the observation that every real material exhibits a power law trend in the creep test, in this paper it is proposed the substitution of the purely viscous element in the Kelvin Voigt element with the so called springpot that is an element having an intermediate behavior between purely elastic (spring) and purely viscous (dashpot) behavior ruled by fractional operator. With this choice two main goals are reached: (i) The viscoelastic behavior of the ground may be simply characterized by performing the creep (or the relaxation) test on a specimen of the ground at the given site; (ii) The number of zero crossing of the absolute acceleration at the free field that for the classical TK model is \(\infty \) for a true white noise acceleration, remains finite for the proposed model.  相似文献   
50.
Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.  相似文献   
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