The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Patterns of pH change inferred from chrysophyte microfossils in Adirondack and northern New England lakes

The silica-scaled chrysophytes are being used increasingly in paleolimnological studies of lake acidification. This study compares the distribution of scaled chrysophytes in the surface sediment of a calibration set of lakes from the Adirondack Park and from northern New England. With the exception of two taxa, species distributions with respect to pH are similar in the two regions. The stratigraphic distribution of chrysophytes is then compared in five Adirondack and three New England lakes. All the presently acid lakes indicate recent lake acidification, with more acid tolerant chrysophytes increasing in relative frequency in the recent sediments. Because the timing of these species changes is unrelated to any watershed disturbances that may have occurred in the lakes' catchments, atmospheric deposition of acids is believed responsible for these recent pH changes.This is the seventh of a series of papers to be published by this journal which is a contribution of the Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification (PIRLA) project. Drs. D. F. Charles and D. R. Whitehead are guest editors for this series.     

Influence of wind upon water quality in Liverpool Bay

Comprehensive distribution patterns of physical and chemical characteristics have been obtained from a series of cruises in Liverpool Bay. The marked feature of these distributions was their temporal variability, suggesting that the surface residual circulation is also temporally variable. The influence of wind stress upon the circulation pattern and hence water quality of this sea area is illustrated.     

Rock salt mass in the Paleoproterozoic sequence of the Onega trough in Karelia (from the Onega parametric well data)

A thick (200 m) rock salt mass covering Late Archean granitoids was exposed for the first time in the Early Proterozoic volcanogenic-sedimentary formations in the Onega trough of the east Baltic Shield by the Onega parametric well. The mineral composition of salts, their geochemical features, and the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon and oxygen have been studied. After fluid inclusions present in salts, their metamorphism temperature and isotopic composition of helium and argon were determined. The obtained results give evidence of the fact that rock salts and magnesites associated with them were formed in an evaporate basin with participation of deep crustal processes. The age of the underlying granitoids (2.716 ± 9 Ma) is determined using the Pb—Pb method.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.     

The Karoo Basin of South Africa: type basin for the coal-bearing deposits of southern Africa

The coal-bearing sediments and coal seams of the Karoo Basin, Southern Africa are described and discussed. The Karoo Basin is bounded on its southern margin by the Cape Fold Belt, onlaps onto the Kaapvaal Craton in the north and is classified as a foreland basin. Coal seams are present within the Early Permian Vryheid Formation and the Triassic Molteno Formation.The peats of the Vryheid Formation accumulated within swamps in a cool temperate climatic regime. Lower and upper delta plain, back-barrier and fluvial environments were associated with peat formation. Thick, laterally extensive coal seams have preferentially accumulated in fluvial environments. The coals are in general inertinite-rich and high in ash. However, increasing vitrinite and decreasing ash contents within seams occur from west to east across the coalfields. The Triassic Molteno coal seams accumulated with aerially restricted swamps in fluvial environments. These Molteno coals are thin, laterally impersistent, vitrinite-rich and shaly, and formed under a warm temperate climatic regime.Palaeoclimate, depositional systems, differential subsidence and basin tectonics influence to varying degrees, the maceral content, thickness and lateral extent of coal seams. However, the geographic position of peat-forming swamps within a foreland basin, coupled with basin tectonics and differential subsidence are envisaged as the primary controls on coal parameters. The Permian coals are situated in proximal positions on the passive margin of the foreland basin. Here, subsidence was limited which enhanced oxidation of organic matter and hence the formation of inertinitic coals. The coals in this tectonic setting are thick and laterally extensive. The Triassci coals are situated within the tectonically active foreland basin margin. Rapid subsidence and sedimentation rates occurred during peat formation which resulted in the preservation of thin, laterally impersistent, high ash, vitrinite-rich, shaly coals.     

Coupling mechanisms in double sandbar systems. Part 2: impact on alongshore variability of inner‐bar rip channels

Double sandbar systems are common morphological features along sandy, wave‐dominated, micro‐ to meso‐tidal coastlines. In the companion paper, we demonstrated how various alongshore inner‐bar rip‐channel patterns can develop through morphological coupling to an alongshore‐variable outer bar. The simulated coupling patterns are, however, scarcely observed in the field. Instead, inner‐bar rip channels more often possess remarkably smaller and more variable alongshore length scales, suggesting that coupling mechanisms do not play a substantial role in the overall double‐sandbar dynamics. Here we use a numerical model to show that the relative importance of self‐organization and morphological coupling changes in favour of the latter with an increase in waterdepth variability along the outer‐bar crest. Furthermore, we find that the typical alongshore variability in inner‐bar rip‐channel scale is indicative of a mixture of self‐organization and morphological coupling rather than self‐organization alone. Morphological coupling may thus be more important to understanding and predicting the evolution of inner‐bar rip channels than previously envisaged. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.