Real-time difference imaging analysis of MOA Galactic bulge observations during 2000

We describe observations carried out by the MOA group of the Galactic bulge during 2000 that were designed to detect efficiently gravitational microlensing of faint stars in which the magnification is high and/or of short duration. These events are particularly useful for studies of extrasolar planets and faint stars. Approximately 17 deg² were monitored at a sampling rate of up to six times per night. The images were analysed in real time using a difference imaging technique. 20 microlensing candidates were detected, of which eight were alerted to the microlensing community whilst in progress. Approximately half of the candidates had high magnifications (≳10), at least one had very high magnification (≳50), and one exhibited a clear parallax effect. The details of these events are reported here, together with details of the on-line difference imaging technique. Some nova-like events were also observed and these are described, together with one asteroid.     

Seismology of stellar envelopes: probing the outer layers of a star through the scattering of acoustic waves

The outer layers of Sun-like stars are regions of rapid spatial variation which modulate the p-mode frequencies by partially reflecting the constituent acoustic waves. With the accuracy that has been achieved by current solar observations, and that is expected from imminent stellar observations, this modulation can be observed from the spectra of the low-degree modes. We present a new and simple theoretical calculation to determine the leading terms in an asymptotic expansion of the outer phase of these modes, which is determined by the structure of the surface layers of the star. Our procedure is to compare the stellar envelope with a plane-parallel polytropic envelope, which we regard as a smooth reference background state. Then we can isolate a seismic signature of the acoustic phase and relate it to the stratification of the outer layers of the convection zone. One can thereby constrain theories of convection that are used to construct the convection zones of the Sun and Sun-like stars. The accuracy of the diagnostic is tested in the solar case by comparing the predicted outer phase with an exact numerical calculation.     

Double starbursts triggered by mergers in hierarchical clustering scenarios

We use cosmological smooth particle hydrodynamical (SPH) simulations to study the effects of mergers in the star formation history of galactic objects in hierarchical clustering scenarios. We find that during some merger events, gaseous discs can experience two starbursts: the first one during the orbital decay phase, owing to gas inflows driven as the satellite approaches, and the second one when the two baryonic clumps collide. A trend for these first induced starbursts to be more efficient at transforming the gas into stars is also found. We detect that systems that do not experience early gas inflows have well-formed stellar bulges and more concentrated potential wells, which seem to be responsible for preventing further gas inward transport triggered by tidal forces. The potential wells concentrate owing to the accumulation of baryons in the central regions and of dark matter as the result of the pulling in by baryons. The coupled evolution of the dark matter and baryons would lead to an evolutionary sequence during which systems with shallower total potential wells suffer early gas inflows during the orbital decay phase that help to feed their central mass concentration, pulling in dark matter and contributing to build up more stable systems. Within this scenario, starbursts triggered by early gas inflows are more likely to occur at early stages of evolution of the systems and to be an important contributor to the formation of stellar bulges. Our results constitute the first proof that bulges can form as the product of collapse, collisions and secular evolution in a cosmological framework, and they are consistent with a rejuvenation of the stellar population in bulges at intermediate z with, at least, 50 per cent of the stars (in SCDM) being formed at high z .     

Parameter information from non-linear cosmological fields

We develop a general formalism for analysing parameter information from non-Gaussian cosmic fields. The method can be adapted to include the non-linear effects in galaxy redshift surveys, weak lensing surveys and cosmic velocity field surveys as part of parameter estimation. It can also be used as a test of non-Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background. Generalizing maximum-likelihood analysis to second order, we calculate the non-linear Fisher information matrix and likelihood surfaces in parameter space. To this order we find that the information content is always increased by including non-linearity. Our methods are applied to a realistic model of a galaxy redshift survey, including non-linear evolution, galaxy bias, shot-noise and redshift-space distortions to second order. We find that including non-linearities allows all of the degeneracies between parameters to be lifted. Marginalized parameter uncertainties of a few per cent will then be obtainable using forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys.     

Non Gaussian and Non Local Transport in the Earth's Distant Magnetotail

We study the ion dynamics in a magnetic field reversal with a constant electric field and with a model of three dimensional magnetic turbulence. By computing the mean square displacements in the plane of the current sheet we find superdiffusive and superballistic transport regimes. Since velocity increases with the length of the free path, we have accelerated Lévyflights. The possibility to generate power law velocity distribution functions is pointed out, as well as the long memory effects and non local properties of ion transport. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evolution of the luminosity function and colours of galaxies in a Λ cold dark matter universe

The luminosity function of galaxies is derived from a cosmological hydrodynamic simulation of a Λ cold dark matter universe with the aid of a stellar population synthesis model. At     , the resulting B -band luminosity function has a flat faint-end slope of     with the characteristic luminosity and the normalization in fair agreement with observations, while the dark matter halo mass function is steep with a slope of     . The colour distribution of galaxies also agrees well with local observations. We also discuss the evolution of the luminosity function, and the colour distribution of galaxies from     to 5. A large evolution of the characteristic mass in the stellar mass function as a result of number evolution is compensated by luminosity evolution; the characteristic luminosity increases only by 0.8 mag from     to 2, and then declines towards higher redshift, while the B -band luminosity density continues to increase from     to 5 (but only slowly at     .     

Variable Star Research With International Networks

Generally speaking, variable stars are monitored through observing campaigns which coordinate multi-site telescopes at various longitudes. A new practice is in progress: devoted networks involving robotic telescopes. We will review these two technologies and will emphasize the NORT (Network of Oriental Robotic Telescopes) project which we are promoting in North Africa, Middle-Eastern countries and Asia. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

A study of the magnetic helicity during eight HELIOS-observed solar proton events

We have studied the influence of the magnetic helicity on solar particle propagation using the IMF data observed by the HELIOS spacecraft in the range 0.31–0.95 AU, during eight solar proton events. For this, we have derived power and helicity spectra of the turbulence of the magnetic field during the time of the events. These are used to compute the particle pitch-angle scattering coefficients according to the quasi-linear theory (QLT) treatment of particle propagation in turbulent magnetic fields. The results show that in all the cases the helicity effects are negligible and the particle's mean free paths deduced from the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients are the same regardless of whether or not helicity effects are included in the calculations. The computed mean free paths are quite different in each case.Deceased 10 April, 1995.