Inverse analysis of deformation mechanism by geodetic surveys−a case study

In 1988 two large earthquakes with magnitude of Ms 7.6 and Ms 7.2 occurred in Lancang-Genma area, Southwest China. This paper discusses the determination of the spatial distribution of fault slip caused by the earthquakes using geodetic surveys. The prior information obtained from geological surveys and seismological investigations was used to determine the geometry of the fault plane and the average fault slip. The smooth constraints on the fault slips have been described by a normal distribution with hyperparameters, which are incorporated in the inversion analysis with a Bayesian model. Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is used to get the optimal values of hyperparameters. Once the hyperparameters are determined, the maximum likelihood method is employed to estimate the patterns of a fault slip. Based on the results of inverse analysis monitoring geodetic surveys can be properly designed and conducted to obtain crust deformations and predict potential earthquake sources.     

Temporal variability in summertime bottom hypoxia in shallow areas of Mobile Bay,Alabama

This paper addresses temporal variability in bottom hypoxia in broad shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Time-series data collected in the summer of 2004 from one station (mean depth of 4 m) exhibit bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) variations associated with various time scales of hours to days. Despite a large velocity shear, stratification was strong enough to suppress vertical mixing most of the time. Bottom DO was closely related to the vertical salinity gradient (ΔS). Hypoxia seldom occurred when ΔS (over 2.5 m) was <2 psu and occurred almost all the time when ΔS was >8 psu in the absence of extreme events like hurricanes. Oxygen balance between vertical mixing and total oxygen demand was considered for bottom water from which oxygen demand and diffusive oxygen flux were estimated. The estimated decay rates at 20°C ranging between 0.175–0.322 d⁻¹ and the corresponding oxygen consumption as large as 7.4 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ fall at the upper limit of previously reported ranges. The diffusive oxygen flux and the corresponding vertical diffusivity estimated for well mixed conditions range between 8.6–9.5 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.6–2.9 m² d⁻¹, respectively. Mobile Bay hypoxia is likely to be associated with a large oxygen demand, supported by both water column and sediment oxygen demands, so that oxygen supply from surface water during destratification events would be quickly exhausted to return to hypoxic conditions within a few hours to days after destratification events are terminated.     

Wind profile development above a locally adjusted sea surface

Results are presented from a numerical experiment of wind and shear stress profile development away from a shore line; the water surface is assumed to obey the Charnock-Ellison relation between surface roughness and friction velocity. In typical cases the upwind, land surface is rough relative to the sea and the velocity and shear stress results are qualitatively similar to those for flows from relatively rough to relatively smooth solid surfaces. In the present case, however, the downwind surface roughness and friction velocity vary with position and we find that wind profile development may play a significant role in the relationship between sea surface roughness and fetch.     

Numerical simulations of the tropical air-sea planetary boundary layer

A one-dimensional numerical model of the planetary boundary layer was used to investigate thermal and kinetic energy budgets. The simulation experiments were based on two sets of data. The first set was based on a ‘typical’ June with climatological data extracted for the oceanic region slightly northeast of Barbados. The second set used data from the third phase of project BOMEX, for approximately the same area and time of year as the first set. Comparison with observations of three simulated elements (viz., sea surface temperature and wind and humidity at 6 m) which are important in determining the near-interface energy transports shows that:

1. the model is capable of realistic simulations of both ‘typical’ conditions, and conditions for a specific four-day period;
2. the model is capable of realistically simulating the differences between prevailing values of these parameters in the two cases (‘typical’ and specific four-day period).

The simulated interface fluxes are those of incoming and outgoing short- and long-wave radiation; transmitted radiation at -0.5 m in the ocean, sensible heat transfer into the ocean and air, and latent heat flux of evaporation. Comparison with observational analyses shows that the diurnal variations in net radiation and heat storage in the mixed layer are realistically simulated. The simulated values of evaporation are consistent with other estimates for both ‘typical’ conditions and specific conditions during this four-day period. The rate of heat storage varies between +51 and -37 percent of the diurnal maximum incoming radiation, and the evaporation varies between +16% and -13% of this term. The non-dimensional transfer coefficients (C _D, C_T, C_q) computed from the model show general agreement with the coefficients calculated from observations in the simulated region (Pondet al., 1971). The simulated vertical profiles of temperature are in general agreement with observed profiles, except in the uppermost portions of the atmospheric boundary layer where deviations of approximately 1.5C occur. Simulated vertical profiles of wind speed are generally consistent with observed profiles, with the largest deviations appearing to be of the order of 0.5 m s^-1. Simulated vertical profiles of the eddy fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum are generally consistent with Bunker's (1970) aircraft-based measurements of these quantities. The time averages of these simulated profiles show regular decreases with height, while simulated profiles for specific hours of the day show intermediate maxima and minima, which are also seen in the measured profiles. The vertically integrated kinetic energy budgets of the modelled atmospheric layer are presented through the four terms of the kinetic energy budget, viz., the upper and the lower boundary drags, dissipation, and potential-to-kinetic conversion. The dominant terms in the atmospheric energy budgets are the production and dissipation terms, with kinetic energy being exported both to the overlying atmospheric layer and to the underlying oceanic layer at rates of about 2 to 6% of the production, respectively. Comparisons between the climatological and BOMEX simulations are presented. The vertically integrated humidity budgets are presented for the two simulation experiments. Under ‘typical’ conditions, the humidity budget reveals an upper boundary flux of about +29% of the lower boundary flux with the vertically integrated advective flux being -59% of the lower flux. For the specific four-day simulation, the upper boundary flux and advection are about +28 and -70%, respectively, of the lower boundary flux.     

Mineralization time and tectonic setting of the Zhengguang Au deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field,Heilongjiang Province,NE China

The Zhengguang deposit, a representative large gold deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field in NE China, is located in the northeast of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Ore body emplacement was structurally controlled and occurs mainly at the contact zone between the strata of Duobaoshan Formation and an Ordovician diorite stock. The diorite rocks have a close genetic relationship with Au mineralization. Re–Os isotope dating of Au-bearing pyrite yields an isochron age of 506 ± 44 Ma (MSWD = 15). Based on present and previous dating results, it can be concluded that the Zhengguang deposit formed at ~480 Ma. The mineralization time of the Zhengguang deposit is nearly identical to those of the Duobaoshan and Tongshan deposits, indicating they are all derived from the same metallogenic system. The Duobaoshan-style porphyry Cu–Mo mineralization may exist at deeper levels at Zhengguang. The geochemical characteristics of the Zhengguang dioritic rocks presented in this paper are similar to those of bajaitic high-Mg andesite, and the magmas originated from a mantle wedge metasomatized by melts from a subducting oceanic slab at an active continental margin setting. The Ordovician magmatic–metallogenic events in the Duobaoshan ore field were caused by the westward subduction of an oceanic slab located between the Xing’an and Songliao blocks. It is worth pointing out that the Zhengguang deposit is the oldest known Phanerozoic Au deposit in NE China. Further studies of this deposit will improve understanding of the regularity of ore formation and aid mineralization forecast across the Duobaoshan region.     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

Integrated petrographic,mineralogical, and geochemical study of the upper Kaimur Group of rocks,Son Valley,India: Implications for provenance,source area weathering and tectonic setting

The upper Kaimur Group (UKG) of the Vindhyan Supergroup in central India, primarily consists of three rock types-Dhandraul sandstone, Scarp sandstone and Bijaigarh shale. The present study aims to reconstruct the parent rock assemblages, their tectonic provenance, mineralogy, weathering intensity, hydraulic sorting and depositional tectonic setting. Samples from the UKG rocks representing the Dhandraul sandstone, Scarp sandstone and Bijaigarh shale were studied using a combination of petrographic, mineralogical, and geochemical techniques. Texturally, medium to coarse grained UKG sandstones are mature and moderate to well sorted. Deficiency of feldspars in these sandstones indicates that the rocks are extensively recycled from distant sources. Their average modal composition for Scarp (avg. Qt₉₉ F₀.₂L_0.8) and Dhandraul (avg. Qt₉₉ F_0.1L_0.8) sandstones, classifies them as quartz arenite to sub-litharenite types, which is consistent with geochemical study. Major element concentrations revealed that sandstones have high SiO₂, K₂O < Na₂O, and low Fe₂O₃, which are supported by the modal data. On the other hand, sandstone samples are enriched in most trace elements such as Ce, Sr, V, Sc and Zr and depleted in U and Th. The CIA values (43.17–76.48) of the UKG rocks indicate low to moderate weathering, either of the original source or during transport before deposition, which may have related to low-relief and humid climatic conditions in the source area. Further, petrographic and geochemical interpretations indicate that they are derived from craton interior to quartzose recycled sedimentary rocks and deposited in a passive continental margin. Therefore, granitic and low grade metamorphic rocks of Mahakoshal Group and Chotanagpur granite-gneiss, situated on the southern and south-eastern side of the Vindhyan basin are suggested as possible provenance for the UKG rocks.     

Ionosphere Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes according to the Data of Ground Based Station of the Vertical Ionospheric Sounding Wakkanai

The paper analyzes the data of manual ionograms processing of hourly measurements of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2 ionospheric layer at the Wakkanai ionospheric vertical sounding station (Japan) in a geomagnetically quiet environment before a series of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0, for which the station entered the earthquake preparation zone, in order to detect possible Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes (IDPE), and to determine their quantitative characteristics. Detected IDPE, in the opinion of the authors, can be related to the processes of preparation of the corresponding earthquakes, i.e., to be Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes (IPE).     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.     

ON LOPINITE,A NEW TYPE OF COAL IN CHINA

To the east of Nanchang,the capital of Kiangsi Province,there cropsout a continuous belt of Permian coal series~1 trending approximately in thedirection from N.E.to S.W.Broadly speaking,this coal belt forms a synclinal