Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Numerical simulation of migration–accumulation of oil resources

Numerical simulation of oil migration and accumulation is to describe the history of oil migration and accumulation in basin evolution. It is of great value to the evaluation of oil resources and to the determination of the location and amount of oil deposits. This thesis discusses the characteristics of petroleum geology and permeation fluid mechanics. For the three-dimensional problems of Dongying hollow of Shengli Petroleum Oil Field, it puts forward a new model and a kind of modified method of upwind finite difference fractional steps implicit interactive scheme. For the famous hydraulic experiment of secondary migration–accumulation, the numerical simulation test has been done, and both the computational and experimental results are basically identical. For the actual problem of Dongying hollow, the numerical simulation test and the actual conditions are basically coincident. Thus, the well-known problem has been solved.     

A continuous/discontinuous Galerkin framework for modeling coupled subsurface and surface water flow

We consider conjunctive surface-subsurface flow modeling, where surface water flow is described by the shallow water equations and ground water flow by Richards’ equation for the vadose zone. Coupling between the models is based on the continuity of flux and water pressure. Numerical approximation of the coupled model using the framework of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods is formulated. In the subsurface, the local discontinuous Galerkin (LDG) method is used to approximate ground water velocity and hydraulic head; a DG method is also used to approximate surface water velocity and elevation. This approach allows for a weak coupling of the models and the use of different approximating spaces and/or meshes within each regime. A simplified LDG method based on continuous approximations to water head is also described. Numerical results that investigate physical and numerical aspects of surface–subsurface flow modeling are presented. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS-0411413.     

A coupling of mixed and discontinuous Galerkin finite-element methods for poroelasticity

In this paper, we formulate a finite-element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. We approximate the flow variables by a mixed finite-element space and the displacement by a family of discontinuous Galerkin methods. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived and, in particular, are shown to be independent of the constrained specific storage coefficient, c _o . This suggests that our proposed algorithm is a potentially effective way to combat locking, or the nonphysical pressure oscillations, which sometimes arise in numerical algorithms for poroelasticity.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

Fractional crystallization models and B–Be–Li systematics at Mt Somma-Vesuvius volcano (Southern Italy)

A compilation of B–Be–Li data on rocks that cover the entire eruptive history of Somma-Vesuvius is presented and interpreted in the light of evolution models for the Somma-Vesuvius rocks. Using major and trace element data, fractional crystalllization models are presented for different geochemical units. These data were used to constrain the source mineralogy of the Somma-Vesuvius rocks (ol-opx-cpx-gar-amp of 0.4-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1), the amount of sediment added (5–10%) and the melt fraction from batch partial melting computations (0.05–0.1). From the B–Li data it is inferred that the main process responsible for the B isotopic signature is sediment recycling. However, the B–Li data show a major variation in Li abundances respect to B which is explained with Li dehydration before the fluid enriched the mantle wedge that produced the arc magmas. The Somma-Vesuvius B isotope composition is intermediate between that of the Campi Flegrei and the broad field of the Eolian Island arc. A low Be isotopes in the recent volcanic rocks can be explained as: (a) the top 1–22 m of the incoming sediment is accreted, (b) large amounts of sediment erosion, (c) a slow rate of subduction which have provoked a long magmatic history for the Vesuvius magma, (d) the sediment component takes several Myr longer than the subducting plate to reach the magma source region beneath Italy.     

Heat flow and crustal thermal structure in the Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith,south India

The Late Archaean Closepet Granite batholith in south India is exposed at different crustal levels grading from greenschist facies in the north through amphibolite and granulite facies in the south along a ∼400 km long segment in the Dharwar craton. Two areas, Pavagada and Magadi, located in the Main Mass of the batholith, best represent the granitoid of the greenschist and amphibolite facies crustal levels respectively. Heat flow estimates of 38 mW m⁻² from Pavagada and 25 mW m⁻² from Magadi have been obtained through measurements in deep (430 and 445 m) and carefully sited boreholes. Measurements made in four boreholes of opportunity in Pavagada area yield a mean heat flow of 39 ± 4 (s.d.) mW m⁻², which is in good agreement with the estimate from deep borehole. The study, therefore, demonstrates a clear-cut heat flow variation concomitant with the crustal levels exposed in the two areas. The mean heat production estimates for the greenschist facies and amphibolite facies layers constituting the Main Mass of the batholith are 2.9 and 1.8 μW m⁻³, respectively. The enhanced heat flow in the Pavagada area is consistent with the occurrence of a radioelement-enriched 2-km-thick greenschist facies layer granitoid overlying the granitoid of the amphibolite facies layer which is twice as thick as represented in the Magadi area. The crustal heat production models indicate similar mantle heat flow estimates in the range 12–14 mW m⁻², consistent with the other parts of the greenstone-granite-gneiss terrain of the Dharwar craton.     

Provenance of late Palaeozoic metasediments of the Patagonian proto-Pacific margin (southernmost Chile and Argentina)

In this provenance study of late Palaeozoic metasediments of the Eastern Andean Metamorphic Complex (EAMC) along the south Patagonian proto-Pacific margin of Gondwana, the palaeogeological setting of the continental margin in Devonian–Carboniferous and Permian times is reconstructed. The study is based on detrital heavy mineral contents, chemical compositions of tourmaline grains, and whole rock element and Nd-Sr isotopic compositions. Element and isotopic compositions reveal that Devonian–Carboniferous metaturbidites deposited before the development of a Late Carboniferous–Permian magmatic arc along the margin were mainly fed from felsic, recycled, old continental rocks. The last recycling phase involved erosion of metasediments that were exposed in Patagonia. Feeder systems to the basin cut either through epidote-rich or garnet-rich metasediments. In Permian time, EAMC metaturbidites were deposited next to the evolving magmatic arc and were derived from felsic, crustal rocks. Two provenance domains are recognised. The metasediments of the northern one are chemically similar to those of the Devonian–Carboniferous metasediments. This domain was fed from the metasedimentary host rocks of the magmatic arc. The southern domain probably was fed from the arc proper, as indicated mainly by the dominance of metaplutonic lithic fragments, abundant detrital biotite, and the major element composition of the metasediments.     

High heat flow anomalies on an old oceanic plate observed seaward of the Japan Trench

Thirty-three new measurements on the seaward slope and outer rise of the Japan Trench along a parallel of 38°45′N revealed the existence of high heat flow anomalies on the subducting Pacific plate, where the seafloor age is about 135 m.y.. The most prominent anomaly with the highest value of 114 mW/m² is associated with a small mound on the outer rise, which was reported to be a kind of mud volcano. On the seaward slope of the trench, heat flow is variable: high (70–90 mW/m²) at some locations and normal for the seafloor age (about 50 mW/m²) at others. The spatial variation of heat flow may be related to development of normal faults and horst/graben structures due to bending of the Pacific plate before subduction, with fluid flow along the fault zones enhancing the vertical heat transfer. Possible heat sources of the high heat flow anomalies are intra-plate volcanism in the last several million years like that discovered recently on the Pacific plate east of the Japan Trench.