Forecasting future changes in Manzala Lake surface area by considering variations in land use and land cover using remote sensing approach

This study assesses the changes in surface area of Manzala Lake, the largest coastal lake in Egypt, with respect to changes in land use and land cover based on a multi-temporal classification process. A regression model is provided to predict the temporal changes in the different detected classes and to assess the sustainability of the lake waterbody. Remote sensing is an effective method for detecting the impact of anthropogenic activities on the surface area of a lagoon such as Manzala Lake. The techniques used in this study include unsupervised classification, Mahalanobis distance supervised classification, minimum distance supervised classification, maximum likelihood supervised classification, and normalized difference water index. Data extracted from satellite images are used to predict the future temporal change in each class, using a statistical regression model and considering calibration, validation, and prediction phases. It was found that the maximum likelihood classification technique has the highest overall accuracy of 93.33%. This technique is selected to observe the changes in the surface area of the lake for the period from 1984 to 2015. Study results show that the waterbody surface area of the lake declined by 46% and the area of floating vegetation, islands, and land agriculture increased by 153.52, 42.86, and 42.35% respectively during the study period. Linear regression model prediction indicates that the waterbody surface area of the lake will decrease by 25.24% during the period from 2015 to 2030, which reflects the negative impact of human activities on lake sustainability represented by a severe reduction of the waterbody area.     

Late Quaternary solifluction sheets in the British uplands

Solifluction sheets are large-scale and extensive valley-floor and valley-side landforms developed widely in the British Isles from mass-wasting of glacial and periglacial sediments during late-glacial times. We describe their geographical distribution and review the processes that have led to their development. We use data from the Cheviot Hills, the one site in the British Isles where sedimentology and optically stimulated luminescence dating have been combined, to assess their age and nature of deposition. We also present data from central Wales where a new mapping and resistivity survey has reconstructed the nature of valley-side solifluction sheets. We explore the relative lack of recent research on these landforms and argue that solifluction sheets represent a clear example of how upland geomorphological systems have responded to late-glacial climate change. We end by identifying a number of areas where research on these enigmatic features could be focussed, including better understanding of their distribution, sedimentology and age.     

The deep geothermal potential of the Berlin area

In this study, we model the geothermal potential of deep geological formations located in the Berlin region in Germany. Berlin is situated in a sedimentary geological setting (northeastern German basin), comprising low-enthalpic aquifers at horizons down to 4–5 km depth. In the Berlin region, the temperature increases almost linearly with depth by about 30 K per kilometer, thus allowing for direct heating from deep aquifer reservoirs in principle. Our model incorporates eight major sedimentary units (Jurassic, Keuper, Muschelkalk, Upper/Middle/Lower Buntsandstein, Zechstein Salt and Sedimentary Rotliegend). Owing to lack of available petro-physical rock data for the Berlin region, we have evaluated literature data for the larger northeastern German basin to develop a thermodynamic field model which regards depth-corrected equations of state within statistical intervals of confidence. Integration over the thicknesses of the respective structural units yields their “heat in place”—energy densities associated with the pore fluid and the rock matrix under local conditions in Joule per unit area at the surface. The model predicts that aquifers in the Middle Buntsandstein and in the Sedimentary Rotliegend may well exhibit energy densities about 10 GJ m^?2 for the pore fluids and 20 GJ m^?2 to 40 GJ m^?2 for the rock matrices on average. Referring these figures to the city area of Berlin (about 892 km²), a significant hydrothermal potential results, which however remained undeveloped until today for the reason of present development risks. The model accounts for these risks through statistical intervals of confidence which are in the order of ±60 to ±80 % of the trend figures. To minimize these uncertainties, scientific field explorations were required in order to assess the petro-physical aquifer properties locally.     

The stratigraphic record of minibasin subsidence,Precaspian Basin,Kazakhstan

Minibasins are fundamental components of many salt-bearing sedimentary basins, where they may host large volumes of hydrocarbons. Although we understand the basic mechanics governing their subsidence, we know surprisingly little of how minibasins subside in three-dimensions over geological timescales, or what controls such variability. Such knowledge would improve our ability to constrain initial salt volumes in sedimentary basins, the timing of salt welding and the distribution and likely charging histories of suprasalt hydrocarbon reservoirs. We use 3D seismic reflection data from the Precaspian Basin, onshore Kazakhstan to reveal the subsidence histories of 16, Upper Permian-to-Triassic, suprasalt minibasins. These minibasins subsided into a Lower-to-Middle Permian salt layer that contained numerous relatively strong, clastic-dominated minibasins encased during an earlier, latest Permian phase of diapirism; because of this, the salt varied in thickness. Suprasalt minibasins contain a stratigraphic record of symmetric (bowl-shaped units) and then asymmetric (wedge-shaped units) subsidence, with this change in style seemingly occurring at different times in different minibasins, and most likely prior to welding. We complement our observations from natural minibasins in the Precaspian Basin with results arising from new physical sandbox models; this allows us to explore the potential controls on minibasin subsidence patterns, before assessing which of these might be applicable to our natural example. We conclude that due to uncertainties in the original spatial relationships between encased and suprasalt minibasins, and the timing of changes in style of subsidence between individual minibasins, it is unclear why such complex temporal and spatial variations in subsidence occur in the Precaspian Basin. Regardless of what controls the observed variability, we argue that vertical changes in minibasin stratigraphic architecture may not record the initial (depositional) thickness of underlying salt or the timing of salt welding; this latter point is critical when attempting to constrain the timing of potential hydraulic communication between sub-salt source rocks and suprasalt reservoirs. Furthermore, temporal changes in minibasin subsidence style will likely control suprasalt reservoir distribution and trapping style.     

Natural hazards,extreme events,and mountain topography

The hazard of any natural process can be expressed as a function of its magnitude and the annual probability of its occurrence in a particular region. Here we expand on the hypothesis that natural hazards have size–frequency relationships that in parts resemble inverse power laws. We illustrate that these trends apply to extremely large events, such as mega-landslides, huge volcanic debris avalanches, and outburst flows from failures of natural dams. We review quantitative evidence that supports the important contribution of extreme events to landscape development in mountains throughout the world, and propose that their common underreporting in the Quaternary record may lead to substantial underestimates of mean process rates. We find that magnitude–frequency relationships provide a link between Quaternary science and natural hazard research, with a degree of synergism and societal importance that neither discipline alone can deliver. Quaternary geomorphology, stratigraphy, and geochronology allow the reconstruction of times, magnitudes, and frequencies of extreme events, whereas natural hazard research raises public awareness of the importance of reconstructing events that have not happened historically, but have the potential to cause extreme destruction and loss of life in the future.     

Rare earth abundances in Deccan trap basalts

Twenty one basaltic flows of known mineralogical and chemical composition from the Deccan of western India have been analyzed for nine rare-earth elements (REE), together with Hf, Ta and Th by instrumental neutron activation methods. The flows, which are tholeiites and transitional alkali basalts, are relatively enriched in the Light REE and have total REE abundances systematically related to their bulk petrochemistry. The results are compared with REE abundances of basalts from other provinces.     

Hydrous olivine alteration on Mars and Earth

Hydrous alteration of olivine macrocrysts in a Martian olivine phyric basalt, NWA 10416, and a terrestrial basalt from southern Colorado are examined using SEM, EPMA, TEM, and µXRD techniques. The olivines in the meteorite contain linear nanotubes of hydrous material, amorphous areas, and fluid dissolution textures quite distinct from alteration identified in other Martian meteorites. Instead, they bear resemblance to terrestrial deuteric alteration features. The presence of the hydrous alteration phase Mg‐laihunite within the olivines has been confirmed by µXRD analysis. The cores of the olivines in both Martian and terrestrial samples are overgrown by unaltered rims whose compositions match those of a separate population of groundmass olivines, suggesting that the core olivines are xenocrysts whose alteration preceded crystallization of the groundmass. The terrestrial sample is linked to deep crustal metasomatism and the “ignimbrite flare‐up” of the Oligocene epoch. The comparison of the two samples suggests the existence of an analogous relatively water‐rich magmatic reservoir on Mars.     

The first dinosaur tracksite from Xinjiang, NW China （Middle Jurassic Sanjianfang Formation, Turpan Basin） a preliminary report

A new dinosaur tracksite was discovered in a steeply inclined sandstone layer of the Middle Jurassic Sanjianfang Formation in the Shanshan area of the Turpan Basin. The site is the first record of dinosaur footprints from Xinjiang Province in northwestern China. More than 150 tridactyl theropod dinosaur footprints are preserved as positive hyporeliefs on the lower bedding plane of a fine-grained sandstone body. Most of the footprints are isolated and appear to be randomly distributed. Some show well defined phalangeal pads, heels and rarely indistinct impressions of the distal part of the metatarsus. Two distinct morphotypes are present: a larger type with relatively broad pads shows similarities to Changpeipus and Megalosauripus, and a slightly smaller, slender and gracile type which is similar to Grallator, Eubrontes and Anchisauripus. In both morphotypes, digit III is the longest with a length between 11.4 and 33.6 cm. A single imprint shows prominent scratches, probably formed during slipping of the track maker.