Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data

Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and “true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.     

Calculations of the seasonal loadings of North Sea sediments with persistent aromatic organochlorines

The content and distribution of ΣPCB (as the sum of 24 individual components), HCB and p,p′-DDE was determined in sediments taken from the North Sea during two seasons. The mass-balance of aromatic organochlorine compounds in the upper 2 cm of sediments is calculated and dicussed in relation to pollutant dispersal.     

Promoting green industrial development through local content requirements: India's National Solar Mission

In order to make renewable energy technology deployment strategies politically acceptable, many countries are linking them to other socio-economic goals. A controversial industrial policy tool that is increasingly popular is the use of local content requirements (LCRs). These regulate the extent to which certain projects must use local products and are often justified on the basis of supporting local employment and private sector development. The LCR debate has centred on the rights and wrongs of protecting infant industry, with little progress being made in finding common ground. This article aims to move beyond this stalemate to understand conditions under which LCRs might be an effective tool for promoting local manufacturing. To do so, an effectiveness framework is applied to LCRs for solar photovoltaics in India's National Solar Mission. The article finds that for LCRs to be effective, they must be (1) limited in duration and incorporate planned evaluation phases, (2) focused on technologies and components for which technical expertise is available and global market entry barriers are manageable, and (3) linked to training and promotion of business linkages and linked to support for other stages of the value chain and wider services integral to success of renewable energy industries.

Policy relevance

It is widely appreciated that governments need to support renewable energy technology deployment in order to mitigate climate change. However, policy makers face increasing pressure to link such support with other socio-economic goals, such as job creation, economic development, and poverty reduction. One such policy support mechanism is the use of local content requirements (LCRs) linked to feed-in tariffs. Policy makers are faced with a difficult choice as manufacturing interest groups lobby for the establishment of protection measures such as LCRs whilst the international trade community led by the World Trade Organization (WTO) seeks to limit their use. This difficulty is amplified by the limited information on the impact of LCRs on job creation and economic development. In this context, this article documents the use of LCRs in India's National Solar Mission and seeks to understand the conditions under which LCRs are an effective policy tool for building a competitive local manufacturing industry.     

A study on the dependency of GNSS pseudorange biases on correlator spacing

We provide a comprehensive overview of pseudorange biases and their dependency on receiver front-end bandwidth and correlator design. Differences in the chip shape distortions among GNSS satellites are the cause of individual pseudorange biases. The different biases must be corrected for in a number of applications, such as positioning with mixed signals or PPP with ambiguity resolution. Current state-of-the-art is to split the pseudorange bias into a receiver- and a satellite-dependent part. As soon as different receivers with different front-end bandwidths or correlator designs are involved, the satellite biases differ between the receivers and this separation is no longer practicable. A test with a special receiver firmware, which allows tracking a satellite with a range of different correlator spacings, has been conducted with live signals as well as a signal simulator. In addition, the variability of satellite biases is assessed through zero-baseline tests with different GNSS receivers using live satellite signals. The receivers are operated with different settings for multipath mitigation, and the changes in the satellite-dependent biases depending on the receivers’ configuration are observed.     

Fault‐controlled fluid flow inferred from hydrothermal vents imaged in 3D seismic reflection data,offshore NW Australia

Fluid migration pathways in the subsurface are heavily influenced by pre‐existing faults. Although studies of active fluid‐escape structures can provide insights into the relationships between faults and fluid flow, they cannot fully constrain the geometry of and controls on the contemporaneous subsurface fluid flow pathways. We use 3D seismic reflection data from offshore NW Australia to map 121 ancient hydrothermal vents, likely related to magmatic activity, and a normal fault array considered to form fluid pathways. The buried vents consist of craters up to 264 m deep, which host a mound of disaggregated sedimentary material up to 518 m thick. There is a correlation between vent alignment and underlying fault traces. Seismic‐stratigraphic observations and fault kinematic analyses reveal that the vents were emplaced on an intra‐Tithonian seabed in response to the explosive release of fluids hosted within the fault array. We speculate that during the Late Jurassic the convex‐upwards morphology of the upper tip‐lines of individual faults acted to channelize ascending fluids and control where fluid expulsion and vent formation occurred. This contribution highlights the usefulness of 3D seismic reflection data to constraining normal fault‐controlled subsurface fluid flow.     

Reprint of “Seasonal and daily variation of mercury evasion at coastal and off shore sites from the Mediterranean Sea”

Dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) was measured continuously using two newly developed techniques and a manual technique. The continuous techniques were based on the equilibrium between the aqueous and gaseous phase (DGM = Hg_extr / H', Hg_extr is the measured mercury concentration in the gas phase, H' is the Henry's Law coefficient at the desired temperature). In order to calculate the annual mercury evasion from the Mediterranean Sea, diurnal and seasonal measurements of DGM, total gaseous mercury in air (TGM), water temperature and wind speed were performed. During August 2003, March–April 2004 and October–November 2004 measurements of these parameters were conducted on board the RV Urania. The continuous measurements of DGM showed a diurnal variation in concentration, at both coastal and off shore sites, with higher concentrations during daytime than nighttime. The concentration difference could be as large as 130 fM between day and night. The degree of saturation was calculated directly from the measurements, S = Hg_extr / TGM and was found to vary between the different seasons. The highest average degree of saturation (850%) and the largest variation in saturation (600–1150%) was observed during the summer. The spring showed the lowest variation (260–360%) and the lowest average degree of saturation (320%). The autumn also showed a large variation in saturation (500–1070%) but a lower average (740%) compared to the summer cruise. This might be explained by the temperature difference between the different seasons, since that parameter varied the most. The flux from the sea surface was calculated using the gas exchange model developed by Nightingale et al. [Nightingale, P.D., Malin, G., Law, C.S., Watson, A.J., Liss, P.S., Liddicoat, M.I., Boutin, J., Upstill-Goddard, R. C., 2000. In situ evaluation of air–sea gas exchange parameterization using novel conservative and volatile tracers. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14(1):373–387]. The evasion varied between the different seasons with the highest evasion during the autumn, 24.6 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1. The summer value was estimated to 22.3 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1 and the spring to 7.6 pmol m^− 2 h^− 1. Using this data the yearly evasion from the Mediterranean Sea surface was estimated to 77 tons.