Gradient-based Pareto optimal history matching for noisy data of multiple types

The advantages of the simultaneous integration of production and time-lapse seismic data for history matching have been demonstrated in a number of previous studies. Production data provide accurate observations at particular spatial locations (wells), while seismic data enable global, though filtered/noisy, estimates of state variables. In this work, we present an efficient computational tool for bi-objective history matching, in which data misfits for both production and seismic measurements are minimized using an adjoint-gradient approach. This enables us to obtain a set of Pareto optimal solutions defining the optimal trade-off between production and seismic data misfits (which are, to some extent, conflicting). The impact of noise structure and noise level on Pareto optimal solutions is investigated in detail. We discuss the existence of the “best” trade-off solution, or least-conflicting posterior model, which corresponds to the history-matched model that is expected to provide the least-conflicting forecast of future reservoir performance. The overall framework is successfully applied in 2D and 3D compositional simulation problems to provide a single least-conflicting posterior model and, for the 2D case, multiple samples from the posterior distribution using the randomized maximum likelihood method.     

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

     

Solar Activity and Deep Convection Modeling

We suggest from synoptic charts of radial magnetic field and intensities of spectral lines (Fe?i, He?ii, and Fe?ix/x) over Carrington rotations 1942??C?2050 that deep convective layers control the pattern of large-scale solar activity. A new result is a Kolmogorov-type energy spectrum of the longitudinal variations of solar activity. This spectrum for nonphotospheric scales of convection (harmonic number m<100) is a new ??fingerprint?? of turbulence in the deep layers of the solar convection zone (CZ). The manifestation of one source of convective turbulence in the deep CZ is revealed as the excess in the power spectrum over the Kolmogorov spectrum. This source may be identified with giant convection cells at the CZ bottom. The convective cascade of the turbulence starts at the vortex size corresponding to the trans-CZ convective cells with the turnover time which the mixing length theory (MLT) predicts. This connection between the MLT formalism and real features in the Sun could account for the success of the MLT in stellar modeling.     

Scientific program construction principles and time allocation scheme for the World Space Observatory—Ultraviolet mission

We present scientific program construction principles and a time allocation scheme developed for the World Space Observatory—Ultraviolet (WSO-UV) mission, which is an international space observatory for observation in UV spectral range 100–300 nm. The WSO-UV consists of a 1.7 m aperture telescope with instrumentation designed to carry out high resolution spectroscopy, long-slit low resolution spectroscopy and direct sky imaging. The WSO-UV Ground Segment is under development by Spain and Russia. They will coordinate the Mission and Science Operations and provide the satellite tracking stations for the project.     

Vertical profiling of SO2 and SO above Venus’ clouds by SPICAV/SOIR solar occultations

New measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and monoxide (SO) in the atmosphere of Venus by SPICAV/SOIR instrument onboard Venus Express orbiter provide ample statistics to study the behavior of these gases above Venus’ clouds. The instrument (a set of three spectrometers) is capable to sound atmospheric structure above the clouds in several observation modes (nadir, solar and stellar occultations) either in the UV or in the near IR spectral ranges. We present the results from solar occultations in the absorption ranges of SO₂ (190–230 nm, and at 4 μm) and SO (190–230 nm). The dioxide was detected by the SOIR spectrometer at the altitudes of 65–80 km in the IR and by the SPICAV spectrometer at 85–105 km in the UV. The monoxide’s absorption was measured only by SPICAV at 85–105 km. We analyzed 39 sessions of solar occultation, where boresights of both spectrometers are oriented identically, to provide complete vertical profiling of SO₂ of the Venus’ mesosphere (65–105 km). Here we report the first firm detection and measurements of two SO₂ layers. In the lower layer SO₂ mixing ratio is within 0.02–0.5 ppmv. The upper layer, also conceivable from microwave measurements by Sandor et al. (Sandor, B.J., Todd Clancy, R., Moriarty-Schieven, G., Mills, F.P. [2010]. Icarus 208, 49–60) is characterized by SO₂ increasing with the altitude from 0.05 to 2 ppmv, and the [SO₂]/[SO] ratio varying from 1 to 5. The presence of the high-altitude SO_x species could be explained by H₂SO₄ photodissociation under somewhat warmer temperature conditions in Venus mesosphere. At 90–100 km the content of the sulfur dioxide correlates with temperature increasing from 0.1 ppmv at 165–170 K to 0.5–1 ppmv at 190–192 K. It supports the hypothesis of SO₂ production by the evaporation of H₂SO₄ from droplets and its subsequent photolysis at around 100 km.     

The geoelectric structure at the site of “Crystal” underground nuclear explosion (Western Yakutia) from TEM data

The resistivity pattern at the site of the “Crystal” underground nuclear explosion (Daldyn–Alakit district of Yakutia) of 1974 which led to an accident has been imaged using TEM data. The local background pattern corresponds to a three-or four-layer earth with a conductor at the base. The uppermost layer, with a resistivity of tens to hundreds of ohm · m, has its bottom at 190–260 m asl and consists of perennially frozen Late Cambrian carbonates. The resistivity structure of shallow subsurface at the blast epicenter remained unperturbed though being subject to mechanic and thermal effects. The bottom of the second layer is at 20 to 190 m below the sealevel and its resistivity is 7–10 ohm · m. It is composed of frost-bound and unfrozen cold rocks that belong to a Late Cambrian water-bearing sequence (an aquifer). The third and fourth layers make up the conducting base of the section (0.2–1.4 ohm · m) while the conductor’s top matches the table of a Middle Cambrian aquifer. Anomalous transient response at the site prompts the existence of a local conductor possibly produced by highly saline waters in the containment cavity and in deformed rocks around it. However, the resistivity is too low (0.02 ohm · m) to be accounted for by any model available at the present state of knowledge. Another problem is to explain how the brines circulating at large depths may have reached the explosion cavity and the surrounding strained zones. The study has provided a first idea of the background resistivity distribution and its UNE-induced changes.     

Permafrost and groundwater settings at the site of “Kraton-3” peaceful underground nuclear explosion (Yakutia), from TEM data

Geological and geophysical interpretation of TEM data has revealed changes to the subsurface from the “Kraton-3” peaceful underground nuclear explosion (PUNE). The explosion was conducted on 24 August 1978 at a depth of 577 m in Middle Cambrian limestone on the eastern periphery of the Tunguska basin (Western Yakutia). The site is located in an area of 100 to 300 m thick permafrost and pressurized aquifers with Na-Ca-Cl brines (up to 400 g/l TDS) and cryopegs. The “Kraton-3” epicenter is only 160 m away from a fault emerging along the Markha River.TEM responses collected at 22 stations along three profiles image a layered-earth background resistivity pattern. The highly resistive uppermost layer, ~ 150–200 m thick, consists of perennially frozen ice-rich rocks. Dry permafrost on watersheds of the Markha right side reaches 1200 ohm?m, while the hypsometrically lower frozen ground along the fault is 10 to 40 times less resistive. That is exactly the place of the PUNE epicenter, and the resistivity lows may record permafrost degradation and taliks (unfrozen layers).The layers below are conductive and correspond to Upper Cambrian and Middle Cambrian (I) aquifers with brines. The top of the Upper Cambrian aquifer along the central profile is highly variable in depth, especially along the fault on the river left bank. The data indicate a local groundwater anomaly above the explosion: the Middle Cambrian I brines, which show up as a conductor in the resistivity pattern, become ~ 300 m shallower, most likely rising along the rubble chimney above the UNE containment cavity; the lateral extent of the anomaly reaches 400 m. There may exist paths for mass and heat transport maintained by pressurized brines in the system “containment cavity–rubble chimney–fault zone–ground surface”.     

Contributions from the 10th International Conference on Gas in Marine Sediments, Listvyanka (Russia), 6–11 September 2010

The 10th International Conference on Gas in Marine Sediments (GIMS10) took place from 6 to 11 September 2010 in Listvyanka (Russia), on the shores of Lake Baikal. The conference was organized as a double jubilee, celebrating both the fact that it was the 10th event in this series and the 20th anniversary of the series. A total of 72 oral and 47 poster presentations were given in eight thematic sessions and the presentations were discussed by 126 participants from academic, governmental and commercial institutions from 19 countries, consisting of geologists, biologists, microbiologists, geophysicists, geochemists, oceanographers and limnologists. Volume 32(5/6) of Geo-Marine Letters is a double issue containing 16 selected papers from GIMS10, and has been guest edited by M. De Batist and O. Khlystov. The papers reflect the broad-spectrum disciplines represented at the conference and cover a wide range of aspects of gas in marine sediments from many parts of the world, but with a special emphasis on the gas seeps, gas hydrates and mud volcanoes of Lake Baikal.     

Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming

Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin, V.V., 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors, Annals of the Hydrological Institute, vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp. 56–63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold, L.B., Wolman, M.G., 1957. River channel pattern: braided, meandering and straight, Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252, pp. 85–98.] are conventional QS-type models, which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg, J.H., 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12, 259–270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material.We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modern and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%, 15%, 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg's model predicted potential transformation of the channel types, from single- to multi-thread, at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades, and at 5 locations by the middle of the 21st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only.Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes.