Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method to Identify Conductivity Distribution: Conditioning on Tracer Test data

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases.     

Automated Kerogen Classification in Microscope Images of Dispersed Kerogen Preparation

We develop the classification part of a system that analyses transmitted light microscope images of dispersed kerogen preparation. The system automatically extracts kerogen pieces from the image and labels each piece as either inertinite or vitrinite. The image pre-processing analysis consists of background removal, identification of kerogen material, object segmentation, object extraction (individual images of pieces of kerogen) and feature calculation for each object. An expert palynologist was asked to label the objects into categories inertinite and vitrinite, which provided the ground truth for the classification experiment. Ten state-of-the-art classifiers and classifier ensembles were compared: Naïve Bayes, decision tree, nearest neighbour, the logistic classifier, multilayered perceptron (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), AdaBoost, Bagging, LogitBoost and Random Forest. The logistic classifier was singled out as the most accurate classifier, with an accuracy greater than 90. Using a 10 times 10-fold cross-validation provided within the Weka software, we found that the logistic classifier was significantly better than five classifiers (p<0.05) and indistinguishable from the other four classifiers. The initial set of 32 features was subsequently reduced to 6 features without compromising the classification accuracy. A further evaluation of the system alerted us to the possible sensitivity of the classification to the ground truth that might vary from one human expert to another. The analysis also revealed that the logistic classifier made most of the correct classifications with a high certainty.     

Some Results on the Spatial Breakdown Point of Robust Point Estimates of the Variogram

The effect of outliers on estimates of the variogram depends on how they are distributed in space. The ‘spatial breakdown point’ is the largest proportion of observations which can be drawn from some arbitrary contaminating process without destroying a robust variogram estimator, when they are arranged in the most damaging spatial pattern. A numerical method is presented to find the spatial breakdown point for any sample array in two dimensions or more. It is shown by means of some examples that such a numerical approach is needed to determine the spatial breakdown point for two or more dimensions, even on a regular square sample grid, since previous conjectures about the spatial breakdown point in two dimensions do not hold. The ‘average spatial breakdown point’ has been used as a basis for practical guidelines on the intensity of contaminating processes that can be tolerated by robust variogram estimators. It is the largest proportion of contaminating observations in a data set such that the breakdown point of the variance estimator used to obtain point estimates of the variogram is not exceeded by the expected proportion of contaminated pairs of observations over any lag. In this paper the behaviour of the average spatial breakdown point is investigated for cases where the contaminating process is spatially dependent. It is shown that in two dimensions the average spatial breakdown point is 0.25. Finally, the ‘empirical spatial breakdown point’, a tool for the exploratory analysis of spatial data thought to contain outliers, is introduced and demonstrated using data on metal content in the soils of Sheffield, England. The empirical spatial breakdown point of a particular data set can be used to indicate whether the distribution of possible contaminants is likely to undermine a robust variogram estimator.     

Stability Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Differential Frost Heave

Differential frost heave is often implicated in the formation of patterned ground in regions subject to recurrent freezing and thawing. A linear stability analysis (LSA) indicates that a continuum model of frost heave is linearly unstable under typical natural freezing conditions of silty-clay soils. A two-dimensional non-linear numerical analysis corroborates the frozen time LSA results, and also indicates the importance of non-linear and time-dependent terms that ultimately lead to a preferred mode, which the LSA fails to predict. Instability of the one-dimensional solution occurs at shallow freezing depths and near-zero surface loads when positive perturbations in the ice content at the freezing front lead to a concomitant increase in thermomolecular pressure and upward ice velocity. Differential frost heave can then occur because of the increased heat flux from the perturbed surfaces. A three-dimensional model using random initial surface perturbations indicates that regular surface patterns will evolve with a length scale in the order of 2–4 meters, which corresponds quite closely with naturally-occurring non-sorted patterned ground.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Long-term seismic noise investigations on Shikotan Island: First results

In 2003–2004, long-term seismic noise observations were launched on Shikotan Island (Lesser Kuril Range) based on the “Shikotan” dormant regional seismic station. The geological and geophysical data on the registration area are reported. Information about the equipment and its technical specifications is given. The precursors to the strongest local earthquakesthat occurred in the Shikotan Island region in January 2005–March 2007 are identified.     

The contact binary system YY Eri

Relatively new and unanalysed photometric data-sets of the contact binary system YY Eri are presented. The light curves have been analysed using information limit optimization techniques, and the Binary Maker program of Bradstreet (1992).Comparison of the results allows insight into determinacy questions affecting the W UMa type of light curve, which relates to our general understanding of contact binaries. A limiting contact configuration cannot be ruled out on the basis of empirical data-analysis alone.Very careful analysis of the photospheric flux distribution over the surface of the Sun may help establish appropriate values of the gravity brightening parameter for cool dwarf stars. At present, however, empirical photometric information on contact binaries is non-discriminatory: i.e. alternative cosmogonies can find alternative support from available evidence. The implication is then for more and better observational data to allow better real independent parameter determination.     

Effects of water on strength and failure mode of coarse-grained granites at 300°C

Summary Deformation experiments have been performed in a triaxial compression cell at a temperature of 300°C and confining pressures up to 65 MPa using samples of homogeneous, fresh two-mica-granite (RM) and monzogranite (CM). The cylindrical specimens (d=70 mm, h=140 mm, V=540 cm³) were tested undrained under dry (105°C), as received, and water saturated conditions at deformation rates between and . The mechanical behaviour of the two types of coarse-grained, crystalloblastic granites is critically influenced by mineralogical composition, porosity, and the amount of intergranular water present in the samples. The failure stress of the CM granite is at about 65% of that of the RM granite; in both rocks strength decreases with increasing porosity and water content.The presence of interstitial water causes a failure mode of non-localized, homogeneously distributed microcracking in the central parts of the samples, whereas, in runs with dry granites, strain localization along a single shear fracture was observed. When aqueous fluids are present, the macroscopic style of deformation of granites appears to be ductile even at lowP andT conditions. Strength and angle of internal friction are reduced to very low values. The style of deformation, as well as the reduction of strength of the water-saturated rock samples, is due to mechanical and chemical effects of intergranular water at elevated temperatures.The maximum differential stresses measured for these coarse-grained granites are much lower than the strength commonly reported for other granites, e. g. Westerly and Charcoal granites. Our data suggest that the strength of the granitic crust under differential stress is lower than currently deduced from laboratory experiments.     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.