FluBiDi – a model to estimate flood based on runoff: validation using extreme and natural basin conditions

FluBiDi is a two-dimensional model created to simulate real events that can take days and months, as well as short events (minutes or hours) and inclusive laboratory tests. To verify the robustness of FluBiDi, it was tested using a previous study with both designed and real digital elevation models. The results highlight good agreement between the models (i.e. Mike Flood, SOBEK, ISIS 2D, and others) tested and FluBiDi (around 90% for a specific instant and 95% for the complete time simulation). In the simulated hydrographs, the discharge peak value, time to peak, and water level results were accurate, reproducing them with an error of less than 5%. The velocity differences observed in a couple of tests in FluBiDi were associated with very short periods of time (seconds). However, FluBiDi is highly accurate for simulating floods under real topographical conditions with differences of around 2 cm when water depth is around 150 cm. The average water depth and velocities are precise, and the model describes with high accuracy the pattern and extent of floods. FluBiDi has the capability to be adjusted to different types of events and only requires limited input data.     

Structure of the inner regions of the circumstellar gas envelopes around young hot stars. II. The new cycle of spectral activity of the Herbig Ae star HD 31648

The results of the high-resolution long-term spectral monitoring of the Herbig Ae star HD 31648 in the regions of emission Hα line, Na I D resonance lines and OI 7774 lines are presented. We confirmed the conclusion, made in previous papers, that the spectral variability of the star in the region of Hα line have a cyclic character. It is manifested itself as the changing of the equivalent width and intensity of Hα line of the time scale of about 1200d. It is shown, that the stellar wind is non-homogeneous and consists of several components, which are differed each other by their velocities. They are observed as in the H line as in Na I D resonance lines. The component’s parameters are changed during the cycle of stellar activity (in the maximum of activity the velocity and density of the wind are taken the largest values and then they are gradually decreased). The investigation of rapid variability of the He I 5876 line on the time scale of a few hours allows find the correlation between the variability of the blue and the red wings of the line. It points at the connection between the accretion and the outflows. Such connection, in particularly, is predicted by the modeling of the wind from young stars made in the frame of the magneto-centrifugal model, the accordance of which for the HD 31648 was shown in the previous papers. In the present work we confirmed this conclusion on the basis of the new data. We found the weak variability of the stellar brightness (about 0.2m), which is agree with the spectral variability (the brightness of the star becomes lower in the maximum of the activity). These changes are well explained by the process of the dust transfer from CS disk by the stellar wind. This process is likely to be more effective in the maximum of activity. An analysis of the variability of other spectral lines shows the agreement between the changing of the Hα line, the Na I D resonance doublet lines and KI 7698 line. The weak connection between the He I 5876 and the Na I D lines is also found. Since the formation regions of He I 5876 and Na I D lines are essentially different, we can conclude that the phenomena, responsible for the observed cyclic variability, take place in a spacious region of the CS envelope. We believe that the most plausible reason of found cyclic variability is the reconstruction of the inner structure of the CS gas envelope, caused by the presence around the star a low mass companion or planet. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 565–588 (November 2007).     

The development of new analytic elements for transient flow and multiaquifer flow

We deal in this paper with an ongoing development of the analytic element method. We present in outline new analytic line elements that are suitable to model general flow fields, i.e., flow fields that possess a continuously varying areal inflow or outflow. These elements are constructed specifically to model the leakage through leaky layers that separate aquifers in leaky systems and to model transient effects. The leakage or release from storage underneath linear features is modeled precisely by the new elements; the singularity in leakage is matched exactly by the approximate solution. Applications are given for a problem involving leakage and for a case of transient flow. We note that the analytic elements can be used also to reproduce the effect of continuously varying aquifer properties, e.g., the hydraulic conductivity or the elevation of the base of the aquifer. In the latter case, the elements would reproduce the rotation of the flow field caused by the variation in properties, rather than the divergence as for the case of leakage.     

Environmental factors influencing aggregation of manta rays (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Manta rays inhabit tropical, subtropical and temperate waters. Aggregation sites of manta rays have been recognized worldwide, but the reasons for this behavior are still poorly understood. This study describes environmental factors influencing aggregation sites of the giant manta ray (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Observations of manta rays were obtained from scientific surveys conducted during 2006–2011. Environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery. The maximum entropy (Maxent) method for habitat modeling was used to determine the effects of environmental conditions on the species and predict suitable habitat for manta rays in this region. Primary productivity and distance to the coast were the most influential variables, suggesting that aggregation occurs in highly productive coastal waters. The distribution of manta rays predicted by the Maxent model showed that the most suitable habitat within the study area is located off the northeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, more precisely, northeast of Isla Holbox and northwest of Isla Contoy. Seasonal patterns of distribution suggest that the most suitable conditions are present from July through September.     

On the evolution of low mas binary systems

The evolution of parameters of close binary systems containing a red dwarf (with mass loss) and a condensed star is investigated. The mass loss from the system and asynchronism of the red dwarf rotation are taken into consideration. The calculations show that if the initial mass ratioq ₀2 then during 10⁷ yr the instability of mass loss process arises, and a bright X-ray source forms with luminosity close to the Eddington one. Ifq ₀>2 then during the mass loss phase the bright X-ray source arises twice. The models explain the existence of the forbidden interval of orbital periods and the absence of systems with periods less than 80 min.     

Recent geodynamics of dangerous faults

The analysis of the existing information concerning the present-day deformation activity of the fault zones in seismically active and aseismic regions suggests that the notions of an active fault and a dangerous fault should be distinguished. It is shown that a fault which is active for an expert in geotectonics will not be considered dangerous by an expert in geotechnical monitoring of buildings. The definition is given according to which a dangerous fault is understood as a zone of linear destruction which accommodates the contemporary short-period (a few months and years) pulsed and/or alternating motions with strain rates above 5 × 10^–5 per annum and earthquakes with M ≥ 5. A technique is developed for identifying the dangerous faults based on monitoring the recent ground surface displacements in accordance with a special protocol which ensures an increased degree of detail in time and space. Based on the idea of the probable accumulation of dangerous strains during the operating cycle of the objects, the criteria for assessing their geodynamical risks are formulated.     

Ion Pressure in Different Regions of the Dayside Auroral Precipitation

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The ion pressure in the regions of ionospheric projections of the plasma mantle, polar cusp, low-latitude boundary layer, and the region of structured precipitation of...     

Numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics with variational assimilation of observational data

Models and methods of the numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics dating back to the pioneering works of A.S. Sarkisyan are considered, with emphasis on the formulation of problems and algorithms of mathematical modeling and the four-dimensional variational assimilation of observational data. An algorithm is proposed for studying the sensitivity of the optimal solution to observational data errors in a seasurface temperature assimilation problem in order to retrieve heat fluxes on the surface. An example of a solution of the optimal problem of the World Ocean hydrodynamics with the assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity observations is offered.     

Successful application of multiscale methods in a real reservoir simulator environment

For the past 10 years or so, a number of so-called multiscale methods have been developed as an alternative approach to upscaling and to accelerate reservoir simulation. The key idea of all these methods is to construct a set of prolongation operators that map between unknowns associated with cells in a fine grid holding the petrophysical properties of the geological reservoir model and unknowns on a coarser grid used for dynamic simulation. The prolongation operators are computed numerically by solving localized flow problems, much in the same way as for flow-based upscaling methods, and can be used to construct a reduced coarse-scale system of flow equations that describe the macro-scale displacement driven by global forces. Unlike effective parameters, the multiscale basis functions have subscale resolution, which ensures that fine-scale heterogeneity is correctly accounted for in a systematic manner. Among all multiscale formulations discussed in the literature, the multiscale restriction-smoothed basis (MsRSB) method has proved to be particularly promising. This method has been implemented in a commercially available simulator and has three main advantages. First, the input grid and its coarse partition can have general polyhedral geometry and unstructured topology. Secondly, MsRSB is accurate and robust when used as an approximate solver and converges relatively fast when used as an iterative fine-scale solver. Finally, the method is formulated on top of a cell-centered, conservative, finite-volume method and is applicable to any flow model for which one can isolate a pressure equation. We discuss numerical challenges posed by contemporary geomodels and report a number of validation cases showing that the MsRSB method is an efficient, robust, and versatile method for simulating complex models of real reservoirs.     

Garnet re‐equilibration by coupled dissolution–reprecipitation: evidence from textural,major element and oxygen isotope zoning of ‘cloudy’ garnet

The analysis of texture, major element and oxygen isotope compositions of cloudy garnet crystals from a metapelite sampled on Ikaria Island (Greece) is used to assess the model of growth and re‐equilibration of these garnet crystals and to reconstruct the pressure–temperature–fluid history of the sample. Garnet crystals show complex textural and chemical zoning. Garnet cores (100–200 μm) are devoid of fluid inclusions. They are characterized by growth zoning demonstrated by a bell‐shaped profile of spessartine component (7–3 mol.%), an increase in grossular from 14 to 22 mol.% and δ¹⁸O values between 9.5 ± 0.3‰ and 10.4 ± 0.2‰. Garnet inner rims (90–130 μm) are fluid inclusion‐rich and show a decreasing grossular component from 22 to 5 mol.%. The trend of the spessartine component observed in the inner rim allows two domains to be distinguished. In contrast to domain I, where the spessartine content shows the same trend as in the core, the spessartine content of domain II increases outwards from 2 to 14 mol.%. The δ¹⁸O values decrease towards the margins of the crystals to a lowest value of 7.4 ± 0.2‰. The outer rims (<10 μm) are devoid of fluid inclusions and have the same chemical composition as the outermost part of domain II of the inner rim. Garnet crystals underwent a four‐stage history. Stage 1: garnet growth during the prograde path in a closed system for oxygen. Garnet cores are remnants of this growth stage. Stage 2: garnet re‐equilibration by coupled dissolution–reprecipitation at the temperature peak (630 < T < 650 °C). This causes the creation of porosity as the coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process allows chemical (Ca) and isotopic (O) exchange between garnet inner rims and the matrix. The formation of the outer rim is related to the closure of porosity. Stage 3: garnet mode decreases during the early retrograde path, but garnet is still a stable phase. The resulting garnet composition is characterized by an increasing Mn content in the inner rim’s domain II caused by intracrystalline diffusion. Stage 4: dissolution of garnet during the late retrograde path as garnet is not a stable phase anymore. This last stage forms corroded garnet. This study shows that coupled dissolution–reprecipitation is a possible re‐equilibration process for garnet in metamorphic rocks and that intra‐mineral porosity is an efficient pathway for chemical and isotopic exchange between garnet and the matrix, even for otherwise slow diffusing elements.