Predicting shoreline evolution on a centennial scale using the example of the vistula (Baltic) spit

The proposed algorithm comprises three main steps. The first step is the evaluation of the sediment transport and budget. It was shown that the root segment of the Vistula Spit is dominated by eastward longshore sediment transport (up to 50 thousand m³/year). Over the rest of the spit, the shoreline??s orientation causes westward sediment transport (more than 100 thousand m³/year). The gradients of the longshore and cross shore sediment transport become the major contributors to the overall sediment balance. The only exception is the northeastern tip of the spit due to the appreciable imbalance of the sediment budget (13 m³m^?1 yr^?1). The second step in the prediction modeling is the estimation of the potential sea-level changes during the 21st century. The third step involves modeling of the shoreline??s behavior using the SPELT model [6, 7, 8]. In the most likely scenario, the rate of the recession is predicted to be about 0.3 m/year in 2010?C2050 and will increase to 0.4 m/year in 2050?C2100. The sand deficit, other than the sea-level rise, will be a key factor in the control of the shoreline??s evolution at the northeastern tip of the spit, and the amount of recession will range from 160 to 200 m in 2010?C2100.     

Russian studies of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014

This review contains the most significant results of Russian studies in the field of atmospheric electricity in 2011–2014. It is part of the Russian National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences to the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS). The report was presented and approved at the XXVI General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG).¹ The review is followed by a list of the main published works on the studies of atmospheric electricity of Russian scientists in 2011–2014.     

Seismic Activity and Structures of the Crust and Upper Mantle in the Areas of Source Zones of the Largest Earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan Region

The results of studies of the shear wave attenuation field in source zones of the 2003 Chuya, 1970 Ureg-Nur, 1991 Busingol, 2011 Sayan, and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are presented. Attenuation fields in these source zones include blocks with a high Q-factor and linear weakened zones. The surface ruptures from the mainshocks of the 2003 Chuya and 2011–2012 Tuva earthquakes are located in the zones of strong attenuation. Epicenters of the mainshocks are located where the maximum contrast in attenuation is observed. In the source zones of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region or near them, the zones similar to so-called seimogenic bodies described in the literature are found. These objects tend to linear zones with high attenuation and are characterized by an increased density of deepened earthquakes and also by deformations of near-vertical elongation. The obtained data suggest that the fluid factor could play certain role in the occurrence of large earthquakes in the Altai–Sayan region.     

Geographical and Ecological Characteristics of the Caspian Sea and Modern Tendencies in the Evolution of Its Ecosystem

The Caspian Sea is characterized in the geographic and ecological aspects, and the state of its ecosystem is estimated. The natural and anthropogenic processes that control the formation of the environmental conditions in the Caspian Sea and the distribution of principal commercial hydrobionts and their food items are analyzed. Data on modern tendencies in changes in the abiotic and biotic parameters of the ecosystem, their causes and mechanisms are summarized. Prospects of further changes related to the development of shelf fields of petroleum hydrocarbons are assessed.     

Problem of transient turbulent convection and a semiempirical profile of turbulent heat exchange coefficient in freshwater bodies

A problem of convective cooling of both freshwater and saltwater lake is formulated. A transient one-dimensional turbulent model with variable layer depth is proposed to describe the process of freezing. The dependence of layer depth on time is determined by a universal equation describing the propagation of Deardorff convective layer. A combination of the main form of equations of Kolmogorov–Obukhov theory and available experimental data is shown to allow the construction of a universal profile of turbulent exchange coefficient, depending on the height.     

The age and thermal history of Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia

 Cerro Rico de Potosi, Bolivia, is the world’s largest silver deposit and has been mined since the sixteenth century for silver, and for tin and zinc during the twentieth century, together with by-product copper and lead. The deposit consists primarily of veins that cut an altered igneous body that we interpret to be a dacitic volcanic dome and its underlying tuff ring and explosion breccia. The deposit is compositionally and thermally zoned, having a core of cassiterite, wolframite, bismuthinite, and arsenopyrite surrounded by a peripheral, lower-temperature mineral assemblage consisting principally of sphalerite, galena, lead sulfosalt, and silver minerals. The low-temperature assemblage also was superimposed on the high-temperature assemblage in response to cooling of the main hydrothermal system. Both the dacite dome and the ore fluids were derived from a larger magmatic/hydrothermal source at depth. The dome was repeatedly fractured by recurrent movement on the fault system that guided its initial emplacement. The dome was extruded at 13.8±0.2 Ma (2σ), based on U-Th-Pb dating of zircon. Mineralization and alteration occurred within about 0.3 my of dome emplacement, as indicated by a ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar date of 13.76±0.10 Ma (1σ) for sericite from the pervasive quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration associated with the main-stage, high-temperature, mineralization. The last thermal event able to reset zircon fission tracks occurred no later than 12.5±1.1 Ma (1σ), as indicated by fission-tract dating. Minor sericite, and magmatic-steam alunite veins, were episodically formed around 11 Ma and between 8.3 and 5.7 Ma; the younger episodes occurring at the time of extensional fracturing at Cerro Rico and widespread volcanism in the adjacent Los Frailes volcanic field. None of these younger events appear to be significant thermal/mineralizing events; the exceptionally flat thermal release pattern of ³⁹Ar from sericite and the results of the fission-tract dating of zircon show that none of the younger events was hot enough, and lasted long enough, to cause significant loss of Ar or annealing of zircon fission tracks. U-Th-Pb dating of zircon cores indicates a Precambrian progenitor for some zircons, and REE analyses of dated samples of hydrothermally altered dacite show the presence of a prominent positive Eu anomaly, which constrains interpretations of the origin and evolution of the magmatic/hydrothermal system. Received: 14 October 1995/Accepted: 29 January 1996     

The role of gametes of the macroalgae <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ascophyllum nodosum</Emphasis> (L.) Le Jolis and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fucus vesiculosus</Emphasis> L. (Fucales,Phaeophyceae) in summer nanoplankton of the White Sea coastal waters

Studies of macrophytes in the coastal zone of the Artic Seas, including the White Sea, have shown the essential role of these algae in the activity of the coastal half-latitude ecosystems. In summer, during the macrophyte reproduction period, a great number of reproduction products are released into the water. For a short time, this considerably affects the ratio of the nanoplankton in the populations that inhibit the vast and shallow coastal areas. At different coastal sites in Chernorechenskaya Inlet, Kadalaksha Bay, during the period of intensive reproduction of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus vesiculosus, 42 plankton samples were collected in 2005. During this period the concentration of antherozoids in the water reached 55000 cells/ml (216 mg C/m³). The number of eggs was within the range of 0.05–0.7 cells/ml. The proportion of antherozoids in the total biomass of nanoplankton varied at different coastal sites from 0.37 to 99%, with a mean of 46% for the reproduction period of A. nodosum, and only 7% for the reproduction period of F. vesiculosus. As was shown by counts of F. vesiculosus female gametes in sedimentation traps, 1 m² of the macrophyte bed (assuming 100% coverage) produces 18000–108000 eggs per day (0.33–2 mg C). The calculated flux of the reproductive material from the brown algae beds to the coastal water shows good agreement with the sample counts.     

Using large radio telescopes at decametre wavelengths

With the aim of evaluating the actual possibilities of doing, from the ground, sensitive radio astronomy at decametre wavelengths (particularly below ), an extensive program of radio observations was carried out, in 1999–2002, by using digital spectral and waveform analysers (DSP) of new generation, connected to several of the largest, decametre radio telescopes in the world (i.e., the UTR-2 and URANs arrays in Ukraine, and the Nançay Decametre Array in France).

We report and briefly discuss some new findings, dealing with decametre radiation from Jupiter and the Solar Corona: namely the discovery of new kinds of hyper fine structures in spectrograms of the active Sun, and a new characterisation of Jupiter's “millisecond” radiation, whose waveform samples, with time resolution down to 40 ns, and correlated measurements, by using far distant antennas (3000 km), have been obtained. In addition, scattering effects, caused by the terrestrial ionosphere and the interplanetary medium, could be disentangled through high time resolution and wide-band analyses of solar, planetary and strong galactic radio sources. Consequences for decametre wavelength imaging at high spatial resolution (VLBI) are outlined. Furthermore, in spite of the very unfavourable electromagnetic environment in this frequency range, a substantial increase in the quality of the observations was shown to be provided by using new generation spectrometers, based on sophisticated digital techniques. Indeed, the available, high dynamic range of such devices greatly decreases the effects of artificial and natural radio interference. We give several examples of successful signal detection in the case of much weaker radio sources than Solar System ones, down to the intensity level.

In summary, we conclude that searching for sensitivity improvement at the decametre wavelength is scientifically quite justified, and is now technically feasible, in particular by building giant, phased antenna arrays of much larger collecting area (as in the LOFAR project). In this task, one must be careful of some specifics of this wavelength range—somewhat unusual in “classical” radio astronomy—i.e., very high level and density of radio interference (telecommunications) and the variable terrestrial ionosphere.     

Trace constituents of Europa's atmosphere

Europa is bombarded by intense radiation that erodes the surface, launching molecules into a thin “atmosphere” representative of surface composition. In addition to atoms and molecules created in the mostly water ice surface such as H₂O, O₂, H₂, the atmosphere is known to have species representative of trace surface materials. These trace species are carried off with the 10-10⁴ H₂O molecules ejected by each energetic heavy ion, a process we have simulated using molecular dynamics. Using the results of those simulations, we found that a neutral mass spectrometer orbiting ∼100 km above the surface could detect species with surface concentrations above ∼0.03%. We have also modeled the atmospheric spatial structure of the volatile species CO₂ and SO₂ under a variety of assumptions. Detections of these species with moderate time and space resolution would allow us to constrain surface composition, chemistry and to study space weathering processes.