A new approach to verify the model core with idealized experiments

Summary ?A newly developed ocean general circulation model has been tested and verified with some idealized experiments. Generally two types of idealized experiments have been done here. First types are called as “symmetric experiments” and second types are called as “transport experiments”. The first types of experiment help to correct the model core and any deficiency from boundary conditions. The second types of experiment are the type of validation experiment. In both the experiments there are no continents, so in the first type of experiments where symmetric forcings are provided one can expect that model should maintain the symmetric nature. In the second type of experiments one can expect that model should respond correctly to the wind forcings, if no wind curl is present in the wind forcing there will be no circulation in the extratropics and if there is no wind the equator there will be no circulation. The model reproduces the possible envisaged results of these experiments and gives the confidence for performing the realistic integration. Received February 20, 2002; accepted July 7, 2002 Published online: February 20, 2003     

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

Vulnerability Assessment of the Maize and Sorghum Crops to Climate Change in Botswana

This study examines the sensitivity of maize and sorghum crops to global warming in Botswana, a country with arid climatic conditions and shortfalls in locally produced grain. The vulnerability of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change were studied using crop simulation models while climate change scenarios were generated from Global Circulation Models. Simulated yields indicated that rain-fed crop production under the observed climate was a small fraction of what could be produced under optimal conditions. The gap was attributed to both physical (especially lack of rain) and socio-economic constraints. Using the southern African core climate change scenario, simulated yields declined by 36% in the case of maize and 31% for sorghum in the sand veldt region. Yield reductions from thehard veldt region were in the order of 10% for both maize and sorghum. The growing season became shorter, the average reduction in days in the sand veldt region being 5 and 8 days for maize and sorghum respectively, and correspondingly, 3 and 4 days over the hard veldt region. The food security option currently followed in Botswana was found to be a good adaptive strategy under a changed climate.     

EVOLUTION FEATURES OF MULTI-SCALE WAVE-INTENSITY AND ITS COHERENCE DURING TORRENTIAL RAIN PROCESS*

In this paper the Morlet complex wavelet munction was applied to analyze the evolution features of multi-scale wave-intensity during a torrential rain process.Separating the suhsynoptic scale system on temperature of black body(TBB) fields during a torrential rain process over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Changjiang River in the last dekad of July 1998,the evolution of multi-scale wave-intensity can be expressed by wavelet modules,and its coherence was investigated with the cross spectrum between the multi-scale waves.The results show that the process of the accumulation and release on the energy of meso-β scale system was shown in the torrential rain process,and the meso-α scale system had an interference effect on the meso-β system in a shorter period.     

耦合海-气环流模式中双热带辐合带现象及其热收支分析

文中研究了耦合海-气环流模式中的双热带辐合带(Double ITCZ)现象,并对这一现象的成因从海洋热量收支的角度进行了初步分析。Double ITCZ现象是在热带太平洋赤道南北两侧各出现一条ITCZ的现象,这是耦合海-气环流模式中的较为普遍的一种异常现象,与实际气候中出现的Double ITCZ现象并非指同一问题。文中对比观测和模式结果,指出了Double ITCZ现象的主要特征,针对它的出现过程进行细致分析,再利用模式输出的热量收支各项进行统计,得到了从海洋热收支分析得到的海表温度变化原因。与观测到的正常模态相比,Double ITCZ是一个异常的模态,它的特征突出地表现为西太平洋暖池区的降温和东南太平洋10°S附近的升温。海洋热量收支分析表明,暖池区的降温主要是受到扩散的作用,而表层平流的异常增暖在决定异常辐合带区升温过程中占第一位的作用。     

RS与GIS集成环境下的遥感图像分析技术

通过多源数据融合，将目前GIS中包含的地理信息作为辅助数据，引入到RS图像分析过程中。GIS数据在空间信息、目标属性和目标范围等方面对RS图像分析具有重要的引导作用。     

过黄河渡槽的脉动风荷载模拟

根据脉动风压功率谱与脉动风速功率谱之间的关系，利用风压功率谱密度函数矩阵的分解，通过一组余弦函数的和对过黄河渡槽随机形式的脉动风荷载进行了计算机模拟     

对三轴补偿补偿值的分析与测试

本文对三轴补偿的补偿值逐项进行分析，从测试的总的补偿值中，通过计算分离出各项补偿值，并展示出各项补偿值特性，以助于认识三轴补偿。     

热惯量法在监测土壤表层水分变化中的研究

利用遥感方法监测一定层水深土壤水分变化，关键是建立卫星数据与地表水热变化关系，该文地遥感定量反演土壤水热变化的数值模拟系统及热惯量在其边界，初始条件确定中所起的作用进行的简述，并介绍了热惯量法求解表层水分含量的发展概况，为进一步提高定量化监测方法的地必琢计算精度，该文发展了地表能量平均方程的一种新的化简方法，经过这样的处理，可从遥感图象数据直接得到真实热惯量值，进而得到土壤水分含量分布，通过野外实     

应用神经网络建立加速度峰值衰减规律

在假定了加速度峰值衰减规律的形式后，本采用人工神经网络拟合实际加速度峰值观测资料来求取方程中的待定系数。为加速神经网络的训练，本设计了基于ＢＰ学习算法的目标分段网络训练法。