Simulation studies of processes associated with stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) in the ionosphere

Results of numerical simulation studies of processes associated with Stimulated Electromagnetic Emission (SEE) produced during ionospheric heating experiments are presented. A one-dimensional magnetized electrostatic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation model with uniform plasma density is used to investigate electrostatic wave generation in the region where the pump frequency ω₀ approximately equals the upper hybrid frequency ω_uh. In particular, the simulation plasma is driven with a uniform oscillating electric field to represent the long wavelength pump wave and power spectra of the electrostatic waves produced are taken. The pump wave frequency and amplitude are varied to consider the effects on the simulation power spectrum. The upper hybrid frequency in the model is varied through harmonics of the electron cyclotron frequency Ω_ce to consider the effects of stepping the pump frequency through cyclotron harmonics. The power spectrum from the simulation plasma is richly structured. The resulting power spectra show sidebands upshifted and downshifted from the pump frequency by multiples of the lower hybrid frequency ω_lh. The structure of the spectrum is highly sensitive to the proximity of the upper hybrid frequency to the cyclotron harmonic frequencies.     

Optical effects in the aurora caused by ionospheric HF heating

Ionospheric heating experiments were done by the EISCAT Heater in Tromsø on 15–19 November, 1993. A low-light TV camera was installed at the VLF receiving station at Porojärvi about 100 km to the south-east of Tromsø. The spectral analysis of the auroral luminosity variations showed that the brightness of the aurora varied at the modulation frequency of the heating wave. The results of this analysis and the numerical simulations of the auroral luminosity variations caused by the HF heating are shown. The variations of the optical emission intensity at the heating frequency occur during the auroral ionosphere modification. The observed intensity variation of the auroral green line during the interval of enhanced electron temperature is explained by a decreasing rate of the O₂⁺ ion dissociative recombination when the electron temperature increases. The brightness variation depends on the characteristic energy and the intensity of the auroral electron flux and the heating wave parameters. The artificial luminosity pulsations caused by HF heating are estimated.     

Temporal evolution of HF-excited plasma waves, measured at different pump frequencies by stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE)

Experimental results concerning the growth and decay times of different spectral components of stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) are presented. A new method of measurement, employing a special pulsed pump scheme for the ionospheric plasma modification, has been elaborated and applied for studying HF-induced processes with high time resolution. The measurements performed show that the development and relaxation of different SEE features have an intricate pattern which depends on the emission frequency shift from the pump frequency, on the proximity of the pump frequency to the gyroharmonic frequencies, on the intensity of artificial ionospheric turbulence, and on the ionospheric conditions. The scope of this method for studies of HF plasma turbulence is discussed.     

Recursive seismic ray modelling: applications in inversion and VSP

The recursive nature of rays in blocky models can be exploited to solve some difficult problems in seismic modelling. Each segment of a ray travels from an initial point up to a reflecting interface, where it is split into reflected and transmitted ray segments, which each continue in a similar way. The tree structure that thus emanates is conveniently handled by a recursive scheme. Recursion allows an automatic generation of all phases on a seismogram, together with all information necessary to analyse or select them. By operating recursively with a ray cell, bounded by a pair of vicinal rays in 2D, or a triplet of vicinal rays in 3D, and two successive isochrons, the two-point ray-tracing problem is reduced to a simple interpolation. Also, the cellular approach allows for a stable and robust evaluation of dynamic ray quantities without any paraxial tracing, which is cumbersome in blocky models of realistic complexity. Geometric shadows are filled by recursively generated diffractions. The recursive ray tracer has found applications in the fast computation of Green's functions in target-oriented inversion and in phase identification in VSP.     

Collapse of the Mapungubwe Society: Vulnerability of Pastoralism to Increasing Aridity

The Mapungubwe agro-pastoral society in the Limpopo valley, South Africa, persisted for 300 yrs before disappearing in about 1290 as a result of a decrease in mean annual rainfall (MAR) from about 500 mm to the current 340 mm. The influence of rainfall changes and competition from wildlife on cattle and small stock populations was investigated (agriculture was not) using the SAVANNA model. Six scenarios were compared for a 350 km² area (Venetia-Limpopo Nature Reserve) for a 280 yrs simulation period: livestock only, wildlife only, and wildlife plus livestock, for a climate of ‘low’ (MAR 340 mm) versus ‘high’ (MAR 480 mm) rainfall. High inter-annual variability in rainfall resulted in highly variable grass production, but production of woody plants was more stable. Extreme drought events of one or more years duration resulted in marked population declines of the grazers, cattle and zebra. Populations of mixed feeders or browsers, including kudu, small stock and impala, were comparatively stable, the latter two mentioned were in part stabilised by offtake. Cattle populations persisted under a high rainfall climate irrespective of wildlife, but became extinct within 120 yrs under a low rainfall climate when competing with wildlife, in particular zebra. The size of the persisting populations of cattle or small stock under low rainfall was about half that for the corresponding high rainfall scenario. Pastoralism based on cattle was apparently unviable once climate started changing, and small stock were probably insufficient for meeting societal needs. Although crop failure is a sufficient explanation for the disappearance of the Mapungubwe settlement, destabilization of pastoralism would have compounded food security. The recorded rapid onset of a dry climate is of portent for current-day pastoral societies in marginal environments.     

Objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic – a comparison between the ECMWF and NCEP Reanalyses

Simple and easily reproducible techniques have been used to construct two objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic-European sector. The goal of this study is to increase understanding of cyclones with the potential to cause damage, in particular, those reaching Beaufort category 7 and above. The two climatologies constructed here span the period 1979–2000 and have been developed from reanalysis mean sea level pressure data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) and NCEP (National Centres for Environmental Prediction). The ECMWF reanalysis data are only available for 15 years, and have been extended from 1994 using operational analyses. The major temporal and spatial characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones are examined and a comparison between the climatologies developed from the two data sets is carried out. The well-known cyclogenesis regions along the east coast of the United States and to the southeast of Greenland are replicated by both reanalyses, as is the characteristic southwest/northeast orientation of the dominant cyclone track across the Atlantic basin. However, only weak correlations are found between the time series of cyclone frequency produced from the two reanalyses, and this is particularly true for the lower intensity Beaufort Scale category 0–6 cyclones. This result, together with the large differences in the spatial distribution of cyclones over Greenland for Beaufort Scale 0–6 cyclones, indicates the NCEP reanalyses generates fewer systems than the ECMWF reanalyses. The overall conclusion is that the ECMWF mean sea level pressure data produce a more comprehensive climatology of North Atlantic cyclones at all scales.     

Elevated stratified layers observed with sodar during VTMX

Summary A combination of low frequency sodar, radar wind profiler and in-situ balloon-borne measurements of temperature and water vapor have been used to investigate the structure of elevated stratified layers within the transition layer above the nocturnal boundary layer during the Vertical Transport and Mixing Field Campaign in Salt Lake City Utah, during October, 2000. Elevated layers determined from sodar and radar vertical time sections were penetrated with a balloon-born instrument package to determine the fine scale temperature and moisture structure of the layers. As expected a potential temperature increase was found in the upper half of the layers; however the magnitude was considerably smaller than found above the daytime well-mixed layer and the vertical distance of the increase was quite variable. Mixing ratio, in the mean was found to have a relative maximum in the lower portion of the layers. It was found that the potential temperature within the layers decreased with time relative to background values, regardless of whether the layer descended or ascended.     

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Century-Scale Change in Water Availability: CO2-Quadrupling Experiment

It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ～ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.