Statistical EOF analysis of spatiotemporal glacier mass-balance variability: a case study of Mittivakkat Gletscher,SE Greenland

An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) variance analysis was performed to map in detail the spatiotemporal variability in individual stake mass-balances (ba) on Mittivakkat Gletscher (MG) – in a region where at present five out of ~20.000 glaciers have mass-balance observations. The EOF analysis suggested that observed ba was summarized by two modes: EOF1 and EOF2 represented 80% (significant) and 6% (insignificant) of the explained variance, respectively. EOF1 captured a decline in ba that was uniformly distributed in space at all stakes. The decline was correlated with albedo observations and air temperature observations from nearby stations. EOF2, however, described variations in ba that were heterogeneously distributed among stakes and associated with local slope and aspect. Low elevation stakes (~<400 m a.s.l.) showed relatively negative (out of phase) correlation and higher elevated stakes relatively positive (in phase) eigenvector correlation values with EOF2. Such relatively negative and positive eigenvector correlation values were present where the constituted of exposed glacier ice or snow cover, respectively. The results from this study show how EOF analyses can provide information on spatiotemporal patterns of glacier mass-balance. Understanding such detailed variabilities in mass-balance on a Greenlandic glacier is of interest because a fifth of the Arctic contribution from glaciers and ice caps to sea-level rise originates from Greenland.     

Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes in precipitation will reduce runoff, decrease hydropower production (with accompanying increases in thermal generation), and increase irrigation water use, while higher temperatures will shift power demand from winter to summer months. The combined impact of these effects will generally make it more challenging to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands.     

Fluid flow and methane occurrences in the Disko Bugt area offshore West Greenland: indications for gas hydrates?

The present study is the first to directly address the issue of gas hydrates offshore West Greenland, where numerous occurrences of shallow hydrocarbons have been documented in the vicinity of Disko Bugt (Bay). Furthermore, decomposing gas hydrate has been implied to explain seabed features in this climate-sensitive area. The study is based on archive data and new (2011, 2012) shallow seismic and sediment core data. Archive seismic records crossing an elongated depression (20×35 km large, 575 m deep) on the inner shelf west of Disko Bugt (Bay) show a bottom simulating reflector (BSR) within faulted Mesozoic strata, consistent with the occurrence of gas hydrates. Moreover, the more recently acquired shallow seismic data reveal gas/fluid-related features in the overlying sediments, and geochemical data point to methane migration from a deeper-lying petroleum system. By contrast, hydrocarbon signatures within faulted Mesozoic strata below the strait known as the Vaigat can be inferred on archive seismics, but no BSR was visible. New seismic data provide evidence of various gas/fluid-releasing features in the overlying sediments. Flares were detected by the echo-sounder in July 2012, and cores contained ikaite and showed gas-releasing cracks and bubbles, all pointing to ongoing methane seepage in the strait. Observed seabed mounds also sustain gas seepages. For areas where crystalline bedrock is covered only by Pleistocene–Holocene deposits, methane was found only in the Egedesminde Dyb (Trough). There was a strong increase in methane concentration with depth, but no free gas. This is likely due to the formation of gas hydrate and the limited thickness of the sediment infill. Seabed depressions off Ilulissat Isfjord (Icefjord) previously inferred to express ongoing gas release from decomposing gas hydrate show no evidence of gas seepage, and are more likely a result of neo-tectonism.     

How many predictors in species distribution models at the landscape scale? Land use versus LiDAR-derived canopy height

At the local spatial scale, land-use variables are often employed as predictors for ecological niche models (ENMs). Remote sensing can provide additional synoptic information describing vegetation structure in detail. However, there is limited knowledge on which environmental variables and how many of them should be used to calibrate ENMs. We used an information-theoretic approach to compare the performance of ENMs using different sets of predictors: (1) a full set of land-cover variables (seven, obtained from the LGN6 Dutch National Land Use Database); (2) a reduced set of land-cover variables (three); (3) remotely sensed laser data optimized to measure vegetation structure and canopy height (LiDAR, light detection and ranging); and (4) combinations of land cover and LiDAR. ENMs were built for a set of bird species in the Veluwe Natura 2000 site (the Netherlands); for each species, 26–214 records were available from standardized monitoring. Models were built using MaxEnt, and the best performing models were identified using the Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). For 78% of the bird species analysed, LiDAR data were included in the best AICc model. The model including LiDAR only was the best performing one in most cases, followed by the model including a reduced set of land-use variables. Models including many land-use variables tended to have limited support. The number of variables included in the best model increased for species with more presence records. For all species with 33 records or less, the best model included LiDAR only. Models with many land-use variables were only selected for species with >150 records. Test area under the curve (AUC) scores ranged between 0.72 and 0.92. Remote sensing data can thus provide regional information useful for modelling at the local and landscape scale, particularly when presence records are limited. ENMs can be optimized through the selection of the number and identity of environmental predictors. Few variables can be sufficient if presence records are limited in number. Synoptic remote sensing data provide a good measure of vegetation structure and may allow a better representation of the available habitat, being extremely useful in this case. Conversely, a larger number of predictors, including land-use variables, can be useful if a large number of presence records are available.     

Early Eocene magnetostratigraphy and tectonic evolution of the Xining Basin,NE Tibet

The Cenozoic strata of the Xining Basin, NE Tibet, have provided crucial records for understanding the tectonic and palaeo-environmental evolution of the region. Yet, the age of the lower part of the sedimentary stratigraphy and, consequently, the early tectonic evolution of the basin remain debated. Here, we present the litho- and magnetostratigraphy of various early Eocene sections throughout the Xining Basin independently constrained by the U–Pb radiometric age of a carbonate bed. Our study extends the dated stratigraphy down to 53.0 Ma (C24n.1r) and reveals highly variable accumulation rates during the early Eocene ranging from 0.5 to 8 cm/ka. This is in stark contrast to the low but stable accumulation rates (2–3 cm/ka) observed throughout the overlying Palaeogene and Neogene strata. Such a pattern of basin infill is not characteristic of flexural subsidence as previously proposed, but rather supports an extensional origin of the Xining Basin with multiple depocentres, which subsequently coalesced into a more stable and slowly subsiding basin. Whether this extension was related to the far-field effects of the subducting Pacific Plate or the India–Asia collision remains to be confirmed by future studies.     

Vegetation-based bioindication of humus forms in coniferous mountain forests

Humus forms, especially the occurrence and the thickness of the horizon of humified residues(OH), provide valuable information on site conditions.In mountain forest soils, humus forms show a high spatial variability and data on their spatial patterns is often scarce. Our aim was to test the applicability of various vegetation features as proxy for OH thickness.Subalpine coniferous forests dominated by Picea abies(L.) H. Karst. and Larix decidua Mill. were studied in the Province of Trento, Italian Alps,between ca. 900 and 2200 m a.s.l. Braun-Blanquet vegetation relevés and OH thickness were recorded at152 plots. The vegetation parameters, tested for their suitability as indicators of OH thickness,encompassed mean Landolt indicator values of the herb layer(both unweighted and cover-weighted means) as well as parameters of vegetation structure(cover values of plant species groups) calculated from the relevés. To our knowledge, the predictive power of Landolt indicator values(LIVs) for humus forms had not been tested before. Correlations between OH thickness and mean LIVs were strongest for the soil reaction value, but indicator values for humus,nutrients, temperature and light were also significantly correlated with OH thickness. Generally,weighting with species cover reduced the indicator quality of mean LIVs for OH thickness. The strongest relationships between OH thickness and vegetation structure existed in the following indicators: the cover of forbs(excluding graminoids and ferns) and the cover of Ericaceae in the herb layer. Regression models predicting OH thickness based on vegetation structure had almost as much predictive power as models based on LIVs. We conclude that LIVs analysis can produce fairly reliable information regarding the thickness of the OH horizon and, thus,the humus form. If no relevé data are readily available,a field estimation of the cover values of certain easily distinguishable herb layer species groups is much faster than a vegetation survey with consecutive indicator value analysis, and might be a feasible way of quickly indicating the humus form.     

A method to reduce the temperature influence on measurements with thermoelectric pyranometers

Summary It is shown that the current of a pyranometer can be made independent of temperature by connecting a resistor of appropriate characteristics in series with the pyranometer. The temperature coefficient of the pyranometer with respect to the electromotive force should be made equal to the temperature coefficient of the resistance of the circuit. A resistor with a semilinear temperature characteristic and a negative temperature coefficient can be constructed by connecting a N.T.C. (Negative Temperature Coefficient) resistor in parallel with a resistor of constant resistance. A complete calculation is carried out for a case where the pyranometer is a Moll-Gorczynski solarimeter and the instrument indicating the current is a potentiometer. It turns out that the temperature influence on the radiation measurement can be almost eliminated.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird gezeigt, daß der Strom eines Pyranometers durch Einbau eines Resistors von geeigneter Charakteristik in Serie mit dem Pyranometer temperaturunabhängig gemacht werden kann. Zu diesem Zweck ist der Temperaturkoeffizient des Pyranometers in bezug auf die elektromotorische Kraft dem Temperaturkoeffizienten des Widerstandes des Stromkreises gleich zu machen. Ein Resistor mit einer semilinearen Temperaturcharakteristik und einem negativen Temperaturkoeffizienten kann durch Verbindung eines resistors mit negativen Temperaturkoeffizienten (N. T. C.) parallel zu einem Resistor von konstantem Widerstand konstruiert werden. Es wird eine vollständige Berechnung für den Fall der Kombination eines Solarimeters Moll-Gorczynski mit einem Potentiometer durchgeführt. Dabei ergibt sich, daß der Temperatureinfluß auf die Strahlungsmessung nahezu eliminiert werden kann.

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Résumé L'auteur démontre que le courant issu d'une pyranomètre peut être rendu indépendant des influences de la température en introduisant dans le circuit une thermistance appropriée placée en série. Le coefficient thermique du pyranomètre—compte tenu de la force électromotrice—doit être égal au coefficient thermique de la résistance du circuit. On peut construire une thermistance avec une caractéristique semi-linéaire de température et un coefficient thermique négatif en connectant en parallèle une résistance N. T. C. (Negative Temperature Coefficient) et une résistance constante. L'auteur présente un calcul complet pour le cas où le pyranomètre est un solarimètre Moll-Gorczynski et l'instrument de mesure un potentiomètre. Il en résulte que l'influence de la tempature sur la mesure du rayonnement peut presque être éliminée.

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With 4 Figures