Evaluation of magmatic processes for the products of the Nevado del Ruiz Volcano, Colombia from geochemical and petrological data

Trace-element concentrations of the eruptive products from the Nevado del Ruiz volcano indicate that at least for the last 1 Ma, the major controlling factor in the evolution of the magma has been a simple fractional crystallization.The Zr/Hf ratios suggest that the source material is mantle-like in origin and whilst subduction-related contamination of the source material has taken place, there is no evidence that assimilation of continental crust has affected the series.No convincing geochemical evidence for magma mixing was found, and data on banded pumices of Pleistocene, Historic and the 1985 eruptions strongly support a crystal fractionation model to explain the compositional variation of their glasses. Therefore, if mixing has taken place it can only be a mixing of layers within a stratified or partially stratified magma chamber.Modeling of fractional crystallization using a stepwise program has been undertaken and least-squares approximations with small residuals are commensurate with analyzed samples. Crystal fractionation models with plagioclase dominating two-pyroxenes and iron oxides give good fits for all calculations. We conclude that simple crystal fractionation is the process most consistent with major- and trace-element variations in the Ruiz series. This closed-system model requires at least 77% crystal fractionation of a basaltic parent to generate the observed compositions of dacites.     

Ability of beach users to identify rip currents at Pensacola Beach, Florida

Quasi-permanent rip current hot spots at Pensacola Beach, Florida, pose a significant hazard to beach users, largely because the hot spots are located at or close to the primary access points. While an increase in the number of lifeguards has led to a decrease in the number of drownings since 2004, the number of rescues and contacts has increased to over a 30,000 year. Despite warning signs at access points along the beach, it is not clear whether beach users are able to identify a rip channel or an active rip current. To assess beach users’ knowledge of rip currents and their ability to identify rip channels and currents, 97 surveys were conducted between June and September of 2010 at Pensacola Beach. Beach users were asked to identify rip channels in oblique photographs taken on green, yellow and red flag days when the potential for rip currents is low, medium and high, respectively. A majority of participants suggested that they could identify a rip channel or current (if present), but less than 20 % of beach users were able to identify the rip channels and currents. The majority of participants identified heavy surf areas as the location of the rips versus the relatively flat water of the current or the darker color water of the channel. Results further suggest that most beach users, and particularly local participants, are overconfident in their ability to identify rip channels and currents. The focus of beach users on heavy surf as an indication of the rip current potential and the overconfidence in identifying a rip channel or current affects the spatial distribution of beach users and to some degree the location of rescues and drownings. While it can be quite difficult for the average beach user to identify rip channels and active rip currents, the results of the study suggest a need for further education efforts to reduce the rip hazard, particularly in areas where lifeguards are not permanently stationed.     

Preliminary Interlaboratory Trial for ISO/DIS 12010: Determination of Short Chain Polychlorinated Alkanes (SCCP) in Water

A first preliminary interlaboratory trial was planned to prepare ISO/DIS 12010: Water quality – determination of short chain polychlorinated alkanes (SCCP) in water – method using GC/MS and electron capture negative ionisation (ECNI). The task was to determine the sum of short chain polychlorinated n‐alkanes with carbon chain lengths of C₁₀–C₁₃ and a chlorine content between 49 and 67% in water by GC‐ECNI‐MS and quantification by multiple linear regression described in ISO/DIS 12010 as the compulsory method. Distributed samples were obtained from a real water extract spiked with a target concentration of 0.4 µg/mL sum of SCCP, i.e. the environmental quality target level according to the Water Framework Directive. The interlaboratory trial included the calibration, a column chromatographic clean up, a concentration step and an integration of chromatographic unresolved humps as well as the quantification with multiple linear regression. Reproducibility standard deviations between 21.5 and 22.9% were achieved by 17 participating laboratories from four countries. The method outlined no significant difference of the results between the standard solution and a real water matrix extract. On the basis of this succeeded preliminary interlaboratory trial the final interlaboratory trial for validation of ISO 12010 was prepared in autumn 2010.     

Negotiating on location, timing, duration, and participant in agent-mediated joint activity-travel scheduling

Agent-based simulation has become an important modeling approach in activity-travel analysis. Social activities account for a large amount of travel and have an important effect on activity-travel scheduling. Participants in joint activities usually have various options regarding location, participants, and timing and take different approaches to make their decisions. In this context, joint activity participation requires negotiation among agents involved, so that conflicts among the agents can be addressed. Existing mechanisms do not fully provide a solution when utility functions of agents are nonlinear and non-monotonic. Considering activity-travel scheduling in time and space as an application, we propose a novel negotiation approach, which takes into account these properties, such as continuous and discrete issues, and nonlinear and non-monotonic utility functions, by defining a concession strategy and a search mechanism. The results of experiments show that agents having these properties can negotiate efficiently. Furthermore, the negotiation procedure affects individuals’ choices of location, timing, duration, and participants.     

Origin of chaos in the Prometheus-Pandora system

We demonstrate that the chaotic orbits of Prometheus and Pandora are due to interactions associated with the 121:118 mean motion resonance. Differential precession splits this resonance into a quartet of components equally spaced in frequency. Libration widths of the individual components exceed the splitting, resulting in resonance overlap which causes the chaos. Mean motions of Prometheus and Pandora wander chaotically in zones of width 1.8 and 3.1 deg yr⁻¹, respectively. A model with 1.5 degrees of freedom captures the essential features of the chaotic dynamics. We use it to show that the Lyapunov exponent of 0.3 yr⁻¹ arises because the critical argument of the dominant member of the resonant quartet makes approximately two separatrix crossings every 6.2 year precessional cycle.     

A predator–prey model for moon-triggered clumping in Saturn’s rings

UVIS occultation data show clumping in Saturn’s F ring and at the B ring outer edge, indicating aggregation and disaggregation at these locations that are perturbed by Prometheus and by Mimas. The inferred timescales range from hours to months. Occultation profiles of the edge show wide variability, indicating perturbations by local mass aggregations. Structure near the B ring edge is seen in power spectral analysis at scales 200–2000 m. Similar structure is also seen at the strongest density waves, with significance increasing with resonance strength. For the B ring outer edge, the strongest structure is seen at longitudes 90° and 270° relative to Mimas. This indicates a direct relation between the moon and the ring clumping. We propose that the collective behavior of the ring particles resembles a predator–prey system: the mean aggregate size is the prey, which feeds the velocity dispersion; conversely, increasing dispersion breaks up the aggregates. Moons may trigger clumping by streamline crowding, which reduces the relative velocity, leading to more aggregation and more clumping. Disaggregation may follow from disruptive collisions or tidal shedding as the clumps stir the relative velocity. For realistic values of the parameters this yields a limit cycle behavior, as for the ecology of foxes and hares or the “boom-bust” economic cycle. Solving for the long-term behavior of this forced system gives a periodic response at the perturbing frequency, with a phase lag roughly consistent with the UVIS occultation measurements. We conclude that the agitation by the moons in the F ring and at the B ring outer edge drives aggregation and disaggregation in the forcing frame. This agitation of the ring material may also allow fortuitous formation of solid objects from the temporary clumps, via stochastic processes like compaction, adhesion, sintering or reorganization that drives the denser parts of the aggregate to the center or ejects the lighter elements. Any of these more persistent objects would then orbit at the Kepler rate. We would also expect the formation of clumps and some more permanent objects at the other perturbed regions in the rings… including satellite resonances, shepherded ring edges, and near embedded objects like Pan and Daphnis (where the aggregation/disaggregation cycles are forced similar to Prometheus forcing of the F ring).     

A rotational light curve for the Kuiper belt object 1997 CV29

We present R- and V-band rotational light curves for classical Kuiper belt object 1997 CV₂₉. The imaging data was obtained from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) archive located at the Canadian Astronomical Data Center (CADC). The data consist of one nights observations of a series of 42, 8 minute exposures in R band followed by 33, 8 minute exposures in V band acquired on the following night. Using relative photometry we determined a highly significant variation in the brightness of 1997 CV₂₉. Using phase-dispersion-minimization we find 8.0, 11.2, and 15.8 hrs to be the most likely, periods of rotation and we argue that the ∼16 hr period is the most likely based on our limited observing window. The phased light curve has a peak-to-peak range of Δm?0.4±0.1 mag suggesting an axial ratio of a/b?1.45.