On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water‐bottom multiple attenuation by Kirchhoff extrapolation

Despite being less general than 3D surface‐related multiple elimination (3D‐SRME), multiple prediction based on wavefield extrapolation can still be of interest, because it is less CPU and I/O demanding than 3D‐SRME and moreover it does not require any prior data regularization. Here we propose a fast implementation of water‐bottom multiple prediction that uses the Kirchhoff formulation of wavefield extrapolation. With wavefield extrapolation multiple prediction is usually obtained through the cascade of two extrapolation steps. Actually by applying the Fermat’s principle (i.e., minimum reflection traveltime) we show that the cascade of two operators can be replaced by a single approximated extrapolation step. The approximation holds as long as the water bottom is not too complex. Indeed the proposed approach has proved to work well on synthetic and field data when the water bottom is such that wavefront triplications are negligible, as happens in many practical situations.     

Chlorinated compounds and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected from Apulia Region coasts

This project was carried out to assess the levels and spatial distribution of organochlorine compounds in the coastal marine environment, using mussels as bioindicators to evaluate the coastal water quality. Levels of polychlorobiphenils (PCB), chlorinated pesticides (DDT isomers, HCH isomers, Aldrin, Dieldrin, alfa-Endosulfan, Hexachlorobenzene, Pentachlorobenzene) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were determined in tissues from mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) collected along the Apulia Region coasts (Mediterranean Sea). Results indicate that contamination by organochlorine compounds is higher in mussels sampled in the Ionian Sea than in those from the Adriatic Sea, with PCB levels up to seven times higher in mussels from Ionian than from the Adriatic Sea. Although PCB levels were above the maximum values indicated by both European Community (EC) and National regulation in several sample sites, the PCB concentrations were particularly high in some stations, suggesting that these locations require a much specific attention. Conversely, results on the mussel contamination by PBDEs highlight their ubiquitous environmental distribution, and underline the need to establish the maximum level for these compounds in foodstuff, according to European Regulations.     

Landslide HotSpot Mapping by means of Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Landslide detection and mapping represent fundamental requirements for every hazard and risk evaluation and consequent improvement of the management strategies for such natural hazards. Optical and radar remote sensing can be used to observe landslide-induced ground deformation, ranging from regional to local scales. This work presents a methodology called Landslide HotSpot Mapping; this approach integrates cartographic, thematic and optical data with Persistent Scatterer Interferometry for the identification of extremely slow to very slow moving landslides, and for the evaluation of their state of activity and intensity. This methodology scans wide areas to detect hotspots, which are narrow unstable zones characterized by higher landslide hazard. To these hotspots, priority has to be given when planning field surveys and in situ validation campaigns, so that field work time and effort can be optimized and significantly reduced. The approach is tested in Central Calabria, over a 4,470?km² area located in southern Italy. ENVISAT ascending images acquired between 2003 and 2009 and processed with the Persistent Scatterer Pairs (PSP) technique are used to analyse deformation patterns. Combining conventional photo-interpretation with the analysis of PSP data, 64 new landslides are identified and the spatial (boundaries) and temporal (activity) information of 980 pre-mapped phenomena (23.6% of updated inventory) are updated. 1,012 active (continuous or reactivated) landslides are identified and 4 hotspot areas selected: San Fili, Rende, Lago, Catanzaro. Urgent field checks have to be organized for these hotspots to validate the satellite-based observations and to design appropriate mitigation measures to reduce impacts on the elements at risk.     

Modelling a cohesive‐frictional debris flow: an experimental,theoretical, and field‐based study

The rheology of debris flows is difficult to characterize owing to the varied composition and to the uneven distribution of the components that may range from clay to large boulders, in addition to water. Few studies have addressed debris flow rheology from observational, experimental, and theoretical viewpoints in conjunction. We present a coupled rheological‐numerical model to characterize the debris flows in which cohesive and frictional materials are both present. As a first step, we consider small‐scale artificial debris flows in a flume with variable percentages of clay versus sand, and measure separately the rheological properties of sand–clay mixtures. A comparison with the predictions of a modified version of the numerical model BING shows a reasonable agreement between measurements and simulations. As application to a field case, we analyse a recent debris flow that occurred in Fjærland (Western Norway) for which much information is now available. The event was caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) originating from the failure of a moraine ridge. In a previous contribution (Breien et al., Landslides, 2008 , 5: 271–280) we focused on the hydrological and geomorphological aspects. In particular we documented the marked erosion and reported the change in sediment transport during the event. In contrast to the laboratory debris flows, the presence of large boulders and the higher normal pressure inside the natural debris flow requires the introduction of a novel rheological model that distinguishes between mud‐to–clast supported material. We present simulations with a modified BING model with the new cohesive‐frictional rheology. To account for the severe erosion operated by the debris flow on the colluvial deposits of Fjærland, we also suggest a simple model for erosion and bulking along the slope path. Numerical simulations suggest that a self‐sustaining mechanism could partly explain the extreme growth of debris flows running on a soft terrain.     

HTP21/c–C2/c phase transition and kinetics of Fe2+–Mg order–disorder of an Fe-poor pigeonite: implications for the cooling history of ureilites

A natural Ca-poor pigeonite (Wo₆En₇₆Fs₁₈) from the ureilite meteorite sample PCA82506-3, free of exsolved augite, was studied by in situ high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The sample, monoclinic P2₁/c, was annealed up to 1,093°C to induce a phase transition from P2₁/c to C2/c symmetry. The variation with increasing temperature of the lattice parameters and of the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, present only in the P2₁/c phase) showed a displacive phase transition P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _Tr = 944°C, first order in character. The Fe–Mg exchange kinetics was studied by ex situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction in a range of temperatures between the closure temperature of the Fe–Mg exchange reaction and the transition temperature. Isothermal disordering annealing experiments, using the IW buffer, were performed on three crystals at 790, 840 and 865°C. Linear regression of ln k _D versus 1/T yielded the following equation: ln k_\textD = - 3717( ±416)/T(K) + 1.290( ±0.378);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \,k_{\text{D}} = - 3717( \pm 416)/T(K) + 1.290( \pm 0.378);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . The closure temperature (T _c) calculated using this equation was ∼740(±30)°C. Analysis of the kinetic data carried out taking into account the e.s.d.'s of the atomic fractions used to define the Fe–Mg degree of order, performed according to Mueller’s model, allowed us to retrieve the disordering rate constants C ₀ K _dis⁺ for all three temperatures yielding the following Arrhenius relation: ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = ln K₀ - Q/(RT) = 20.99( ±3.74) - 26406( ±4165)/T(K);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = \ln \,K_{0} - Q/(RT) = 20.99( \pm 3.74) - 26406( \pm 4165)/T(K);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . An activation energy of 52.5(±4) kcal/mol for the Fe–Mg exchange process was obtained. The above relation was used to calculate the following Arrhenius relation modified as a function of X _Fe (in the range of X _Fe = 0.20–0.50): ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = (21.185 - 1.47X_\textFe ) - \frac(27267 - 4170X_\textFe )T(K) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = (21.185 - 1.47X_{\text{Fe}} ) - {\frac{{(27267 - 4170X_{\text{Fe}} )}}{T(K)}} . The cooling time constant, η = 6 × 10⁻¹ K⁻¹ year⁻¹ calculated on the PCA82506-3 sample, provided a cooling rate of the order of 1°C/min consistent with the extremely fast late cooling history of the ureilite parent body after impact excavation.     

Middle and late Pleistocene glaciations in the Campo Felice Basin (central Apennines, Italy)

The present paper refers to research conducted in the tectonic-karst depression of Campo Felice in the central Apennines (Italy), in which glacial, alluvial and lacustrine sediments have been preserved. Stratigraphic interpretations of sediments underlying the Campo Felice Plain are based on evidence obtained from nine continuous-core boreholes. The boreholes reach a depth of 120 m and provide evidence of five sedimentation cycles separated by erosion surfaces. Each cycle is interpreted as an initial response to a mainly warm stage, characterized by low-energy alluvial and colluvial deposition, pedogenesis, and limited episodes of marsh formation. In turn, a mainly cold stage follows during which a lake formed, and glaciers developed and expanded, leading to deposition of glacial and fluvioglacial deposits. The chronological framework is established by eleven accelerator mass spectrometer ¹⁴C ages and three ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar ages on leucites from interbedded tephra layers. These age determinations indicate five glacial advances that respectively occurred during marine oxygen isotope stages 2, 3-4, 6, 10 and 14.     

Depositional processes on oceanic island shelves – Evidence from storm‐generated Neogene deposits from the mid‐North Atlantic

Oceanic islands – such as the Azores in the mid‐North Atlantic – are periodically exposed to large storms that often remobilize and transport marine sediments along coastlines, and into deeper environments. Such disruptive events create deposits – denominated tempestites – whose characteristics reflect the highly dynamic environment in which they were formed. Tempestites from oceanic islands, however, are seldom described in the literature and little is known about storm‐related sediment dynamics affecting oceanic island shelves. Therefore, the geological record of tempestite deposits at oceanic islands can provide invaluable information on the processes of sediment remobilization, transport and deposition taking place on insular shelves during and after major storms. In Santa Maria Island (Azores), a sequence of Neogene tempestite deposits was incorporated in the island edifice by the ongoing volcanic activity (thus preserved) and later exposed through uplift and erosion. Because it was overlain by a contemporary coastal lava delta, the water depth at the time of deposition could be inferred, constituting an excellent case‐study to gain insight on the still enigmatic processes of insular shelf deposition. Sedimentological, palaeontological, petrographic and palaeo‐water depth information allowed the reconstruction of the depositional environment of these sediments. The sequence typifies the characteristics of a tempestite (or successive tempestites) formed at ca 50 m depth, in a steep, energetic open insular shelf, and with evidence for massive sediment remobilization from the nearshore to the middle or outer shelf. The authors claim that cross‐shelf transport induced by storm events is the main process of sediment deposition acting on steep and narrow shelves subjected to high‐energetic environments, such as the insular shelves of open‐sea volcanic islands.     

Quantifying Multipath Using MNR Ratios

The global positioning system (GPS) is used increasingly to control horizontal and vertical displacement of large civil constructions. The displacements can occur over varius time scales. For example, in case of the loading test of a bridge, the time span between measurements is on the order of 30 min. The achievable precision in the vertical component and its relation to residual multiplath effects become critically important in such aaplications. A multipath-to-noise ratio (MNR) on individual satellites is introduced to quantify the multipath effects. ? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Examining the difficulties in letting social housing within England

This paper provides an overview of the current literature on why difficulties are being experienced in letting social housing within England. The first part of the paper focuses on whether the management of the social housing stock, and in particular the current allocation system, has contributed to the growing number of difficult to let (DTL) properties in the social sector. Drawing on findings from in-depth interviews with twenty local authorities, the paper provides evidence to support this argument and also highlights a number of initiatives which authorities have adopted to fill DTL properties. However, the paper argues that these initiatives are likely to have limited value in the long run in stemming the fall in demand for social housing, particularly in the North of England. The second part of the paper focuses on the changing aspirations of tenants and the way that social housing is in competition with alternative forms to housing provision, such as private rented housing. It concludes by advocating that an appropriate response to difficulties in letting social housing has to go beyond internal housing management initiatives. Instead a more strategic approach needs to be adopted which builds up an understanding of the operation of the local housing market and the complex interaction of neighbourhoods.