Exploring lava‐flow hazards at Pico Island,Azores Archipelago (Portugal)

Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30‐km‐long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava‐flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision‐making in territorial management and future land‐use planning.     

The potential origins and palaeoenvironmental implications of high temporal resolution δO heterogeneity in coral skeletons

δ¹⁸O was determined at high spatial resolution (beam diameter ∼30 μm) by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) across 1-2 year sections of 2 modern Porites lobata coral skeletons from Hawaii. We observe large (>2‰) cyclical δ¹⁸O variations that typically cover skeletal distances equivalent to periods of ∼20-30 days. These variations do not reflect seawater temperature or composition and we conclude that skeletal δ¹⁸O is principally controlled by other processes. Calcification site pH in one coral record was estimated from previous SIMS measurements of skeletal δ¹¹B. We model predicted skeletal δ¹⁸O as a function of calcification site pH, DIC residence time at the site and DIC source (reflecting the inputs of seawater and molecular CO₂ to the site). We assume that oxygen isotopic equilibration proceeds at the rates observed in seawater and that only the aqueous carbonate ion is incorporated into the precipitating aragonite. We reproduce successfully the observed skeletal δ¹⁸O range by assuming that DIC is rapidly utilised at the calcification site (within 1 h) and that ∼80% of the skeletal carbonate is derived from seawater. If carbonic anhydrase catalyses the reversible hydration of CO₂ at the calcification site, then oxygen isotopic equilibration times may be substantially reduced and a larger proportion of the skeletal carbonate could be derived from molecular CO₂. Seasonal skeletal δ¹⁸O variations are most pronounced in the skeleton deposited from late autumn to winter (and coincide with the high density skeletal bands) and are dampened in skeleton deposited from spring to summer. We observed no annual pattern in sea surface temperature or photosynthetically active radiation variability which could potentially correlate with the coral δ¹⁸O. At present we are unable to resolve an environmental cue to drive seasonal patterns of short term skeletal δ¹⁸O heterogeneity.     

Fragmentation during Rock Falls: Two Italian Case Studies of Hard and Soft Rocks

In recent years, rock fall phenomena in Italy have received considerable attention for risk mitigation through in situ observations and experimental data. This paper reports the study conducted at Camaldoli Hill, in the urban area of Naples, and at Monte Pellegrino, Palermo, Italy. The rocks involved are volcanic Neapolitan yellow tuff (NYT) in the former area and dolomitic limestone in the latter. Both rocks, even though with different strength characteristics, have shown a significant tendency towards rock fragmentation during run out. This behavior was first investigated by comparing the volumes of removable blocks on the cliff faces (V ₀) and fallen blocks on the slopes (V _f). It was assumed that the ratio V _f/V ₀ decreases with the distance (x _f) from the detachment area by an empirical law, which depends on a coefficient α, correlated with the geotechnical properties of the materials involved in the rock fall. Finally, this law was validated by observation of well-documented natural rock falls (Palermo) and by in situ full-scale tests (Naples). From the engineering perspective, consideration of fragmentation processes in rock fall modeling provides a means for designing low-cost mitigation measures.     

Carbon dioxide degassing and thermal energy release in the Monte Amiata volcanic-geothermal area (Italy)

The quaternary volcanic complex of Mount Amiata is located in southern Tuscany (Italy) and represents the most recent manifestation of the Tuscan Magmatic Province. The region is characterised by a large thermal anomaly and by the presence of numerous CO₂-rich gas emissions and geothermal features, mainly located at the periphery of the volcanic complex. Two geothermal systems are located, at increasing depths, in the carbonate and metamorphic formations beneath the volcanic complex. The shallow volcanic aquifer is separated from the deep geothermal systems by a low permeability unit (Ligurian Unit). A measured CO₂ discharge through soils of 1.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ shows that large amounts of CO₂ move from the deep reservoir to the surface. A large range in δ¹³C_TDIC (−21.07 to +3.65) characterises the waters circulating in the aquifers of the region and the mass and isotopic balance of TDIC allows distinguishing a discharge of 0.3 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ of deeply sourced CO₂ in spring waters. The total natural CO₂ discharge (2.1 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹) is slightly less than minimum CO₂ output estimated by an indirect method (2.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹), but present-day release of 5.8 × 10⁹ mol a⁻¹ CO₂ from deep geothermal wells may have reduced natural CO₂ discharge. The heat transported by groundwater, computed considering the increase in temperature from the infiltration area to the discharge from springs, is of the same order of magnitude, or higher, than the regional conductive heat flow (>200 mW m⁻²) and reaches extremely high values (up to 2700 mW m⁻²) in the north-eastern part of the study area. Heat transfer occurs mainly by conductive heating in the volcanic aquifer and by uprising gas and vapor along fault zones and in those areas where low permeability cover is lacking. The comparison of CO₂ flux, heat flow and geological setting shows that near surface geology and hydrogeological setting play a central role in determining CO₂ degassing and heat transfer patterns.     

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying Multipath Using MNR Ratios

The global positioning system (GPS) is used increasingly to control horizontal and vertical displacement of large civil constructions. The displacements can occur over varius time scales. For example, in case of the loading test of a bridge, the time span between measurements is on the order of 30 min. The achievable precision in the vertical component and its relation to residual multiplath effects become critically important in such aaplications. A multipath-to-noise ratio (MNR) on individual satellites is introduced to quantify the multipath effects. ? 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study

Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km²). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5–10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15–20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25–1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5–1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21–31% and stream flows by 16–23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.