Fluid Households,Complex Families: The Impacts of Children's Migration as a Response to HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa*

The fluidity of southern African families is related to a long history of internal and external migration. Currently, HIV/AIDS is having a dramatic impact on extended family structures, with the migration of individual members employed as a coping strategy. Children's migration is one aspect of this that is often distinct from that undertaken by other household members. This article is based on qualitative research conducted in Lesotho and Malawi with young migrants and the households that receive them. It examines the processes of fragmentation and re‐formation of households through the movements of children that are taking place in response to HIV/AIDS, and explores the impacts these processes have on young migrants and the households they join.     

Environmental impact of the MV CITA on the foreshore of Porth Hellick, Isles of Scilly

The grounding of the container feeder vessel MV CITA on Newfoundland Rocks, Isles of Scilly, had an effect on the surrounding biota and benthic environment. Included in the CITA's cargo were five 40 ft containers holding pallets of polyester film used in the production of audio and visual recording tapes. The wreckage presented a minor but potentially chronic source of pollution through the delayed release of polythene film, which was left on the seabed as it was considered insufficiently valuable to warrant salvage. The polythene disintegrated and was washed upon the foreshore of Porth Hellick in minute shreds. The adjacent foreshore and two control sites within the islands were analysed using a 5-strand line and vegetation survey with 10 random quadrats within each line to determine the environmental impact of the polythene.     

The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data

Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km² straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.     

Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.     

Bounded relative motion under zonal harmonics perturbations

The problem of finding natural bounded relative trajectories between the different units of a distributed space system is of great interest to the astrodynamics community. This is because most popular initialization methods still fail to establish long-term bounded relative motion when gravitational perturbations are involved. Recent numerical searches based on dynamical systems theory and ergodic maps have demonstrated that bounded relative trajectories not only exist but may extend up to hundreds of kilometers, i.e., well beyond the reach of currently available techniques. To remedy this, we introduce a novel approach that relies on neither linearized equations nor mean-to-osculating orbit element mappings. The proposed algorithm applies to rotationally symmetric bodies and is based on a numerical method for computing quasi-periodic invariant tori via stroboscopic maps, including extra constraints to fix the average of the nodal period and RAAN drift between two consecutive equatorial plane crossings of the quasi-periodic solutions. In this way, bounded relative trajectories of arbitrary size can be found with great accuracy as long as these are allowed by the natural dynamics and the physical constraints of the system (e.g., the surface of the gravitational attractor). This holds under any number of zonal harmonics perturbations and for arbitrary time intervals as demonstrated by numerical simulations about an Earth-like planet and the highly oblate primary of the binary asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4.     

Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of the spandrel type on the lateral behavior of unreinforced masonry walls

Seismic response of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings is largely influenced by nonlinear behavior of spandrels, which provide coupling between piers under in‐plane lateral actions. Seismic codes do not appropriately address modeling and strength verification of spandrels, adapting procedures originally proposed for piers. Therefore, research on spandrels has received significant attention in some earthquake‐prone countries, such as Italy and New Zealand. In the last years, the authors of this paper have performed both monotonic and cyclic in‐plane lateral loading tests on full‐scale masonry walls with single opening and different spandrel types. Those tests were carried out in a static fashion and with displacement control. In this paper, experimental outcomes for two as‐built specimens are presented and compared with those obtained in the past for another as‐built specimen with a wooden lintel above the opening. In both newly tested specimens, the masonry above the opening was supported by a shallow masonry arch. In one of those specimens, a reinforced concrete (RC) bond beam was realized on top of the spandrel, resulting in a composite URM‐RC spandrel. Then, the influence of spandrel type is analyzed in terms of observed damage, force–drift curves, and their bilinear idealizations, which allowed to compare displacement ductility and overstrength of wall specimens. Furthermore, effects of rocking behavior of piers are identified, highlighting their relationship with hysteretic damping and residual drifts. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRIMARILY STUDY ON FEATURES OF SURFACE RUPTURES INDUCED BY THE 2016 MW7.8 KARKOURA EARTHQUAKE,NEW ZEALAND

The surface ruptures produced by the 2016 M_W7.8 Karkoura earthquake, New Zealand are distributed in a belt with~170km long and~35km wide, trending generally in the NE-SW direction. There are at least 12 faults on which meter-scale displacements are identified and they were formed across two distinct seismotectonic provinces with fundamental different characteristics(Hamling et al., 2017; Litchfield et al., 2017). Although the trending directions of the seismic surface ruptures vary greatly at different locations, the ruptured faults can be generally divided into two groups with the NE to NEE direction and the NNW to N direction, respectively. The faults in the NNW-near NS direction are nearly parallel with 40~50km apart and featured by reverse movement with the maximum displacement of 5~6m. The faults in the NE-NNE direction, with the maximum of 25~30km apart are not continuous and featured by the dextral strike slip with the largest displacement of 10~12m. Even if some faults along the NE-NEE direction are end to end connected, their strikes differ by about 30°. The combination styles of the strike-slip fault surface ruptures along the NE-NEE direction can be merged into 3 categories, including en-echelon, bifurcation and parallel patterns. The scales of the fault surface ruptures with the same structural style could be obviously different in different areas, which results in significant changes in the widths of deformation zone, from tens of meters to hundreds of meters. En-echelon distributed surface rupture(section)can appear as a combination belt of meter-scale to dozens of meter-scale shear fracture with bulge and compressional shear fractures, and also can be characterized by the combination of the left-step en-echelon tensile shear fractures with a length of more than one hundred meters. The step-overs between surface rupture sections are clearly different in sizes, which can be dozens of meters, hundreds of meters to several kilometers. The spacing between parallel surface ruptures can be several meters, dozens of meters to several kilometers. Besides, as one of the prominent characteristics, the seismic surface ruptures caused by the Karkoura earthquake broke through the known distribution pattern of active faults. The surface ruptures can occur either on the previously thought inactive or unmapped faults, or break through the distribution range of previously realized active faults in the striking or lateral direction. The basic features about the distribution and widths of the surface ruptures induced by the 2016 M_W7.8 Karkoura earthquake, New Zealand presented in this paper might be helpful for understanding some seismic problems such as complex corresponding relationship between the active faults and the deep seismogenic structure, and the necessary measurements for engineering crossing active faults.     

Exploring a landslide inventory created by automated web data mining: the case of Italy

Landslides - Nowadays, several systems to set up landslide inventories exist although they rarely rely on automated or real-time updates. Mass media can provide reliable info about natural hazard...