The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.     

Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation

We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.     

Duplex architecture and late‐orogenic backthrusting in Foredeep Units of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The Northern Apennines of Italy is a fold and thrust belt that resulted from the NE‐ward progressive overthrusting of a Mesoalpine stacking (the ocean‐derived Ligurian Units) onto the detached sedimentary cover of the Adria plate continental margin (Foredeep Units). The Futa Pass area represents a key sector for the reconstruction of the deformation history of two Foredeep Units (Acquerino and Carigiola Units). The tectonic evolution of this sector is characterized by the superposition of three main deformation stages, with a constant NNE–SSW compression direction. The oldest structure is represented by the NNE‐verging Acquerino Unit duplex structure, the roof thrust of which is represented by the Ligurian stacking basal thrust. The interpretation of this structure as a large‐scale duplex is supported by the presence in the outer sectors of the Northern Apennines belt of Ligurian Units directly overthrust on younger Foredeep Units. In the second deformation stage the NNE‐verging Tavaiano Thrust developed. This regionally significant tectonic surface juxtaposes the Acquerino Unit (already developed as a duplex) and the overlying Ligurian Units, onto the Carigiola Unit. During this stage the fault pattern of the Carigiola Unit was also developed, characterized by two conjugate fault systems, coherent with a NNE–SSW maximum compression direction. During the last deformation stage, a backthrusting with a top‐to‐the SSW sense of movement (the Marcoiano Backthrust) brings the Carigiola Unit and its tectonic cover over the Acquerino and Ligurian Units, with the development of a large footwall syncline. The deformation history presented here differs from previous studies, and so provides a contribution to the debate on Northern Apennines tectonic evolution. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bounded relative motion under zonal harmonics perturbations

The problem of finding natural bounded relative trajectories between the different units of a distributed space system is of great interest to the astrodynamics community. This is because most popular initialization methods still fail to establish long-term bounded relative motion when gravitational perturbations are involved. Recent numerical searches based on dynamical systems theory and ergodic maps have demonstrated that bounded relative trajectories not only exist but may extend up to hundreds of kilometers, i.e., well beyond the reach of currently available techniques. To remedy this, we introduce a novel approach that relies on neither linearized equations nor mean-to-osculating orbit element mappings. The proposed algorithm applies to rotationally symmetric bodies and is based on a numerical method for computing quasi-periodic invariant tori via stroboscopic maps, including extra constraints to fix the average of the nodal period and RAAN drift between two consecutive equatorial plane crossings of the quasi-periodic solutions. In this way, bounded relative trajectories of arbitrary size can be found with great accuracy as long as these are allowed by the natural dynamics and the physical constraints of the system (e.g., the surface of the gravitational attractor). This holds under any number of zonal harmonics perturbations and for arbitrary time intervals as demonstrated by numerical simulations about an Earth-like planet and the highly oblate primary of the binary asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4.     

Choice chamber experiments to test the attraction of postflexion Rhabdosargus holubi larvae to water of estuarine and riverine origin

Although the recruitment of larvae and juveniles of marine fishes into estuaries has been well documented, little is known about the factors governing the immigration of estuary-associated marine fishes into estuaries. Fishes have a well-developed sense of smell and it has been suggested by several workers that olfactory cues of freshwater or estuarine origin serve as stimuli, attracting larvae and juveniles of estuary-associated species into estuaries. Attraction of postflexion Rhabdosargus holubi larvae to estuary and river water from the Kowie estuarine system, South Africa, was measured using a rectangular choice chamber. In experiments, conducted during peak recruitment periods, larvae selected estuary and river water with a significantly higher frequency than sea water. This study, the first to assess the possible role of olfaction in the recruitment process of an estuary-associated marine fish species, demonstrates that larvae are able to recognise water from different origins, probably based on odour.     

An operational model to estimate hourly and daily crop evapotranspiration in hilly terrain: validation on wheat and oat crops

In this paper, we present an operational model to estimate the actual evapotranspiration (ET) of crops cultivated on hilly terrains. This new model has the following three characteristics: (1) ET modelling is based on a Penman?CMonteith (PM) type equation (Monteith 1965) where canopy resistance is simulated by following an approach already illustrated by Katerji and Perrier (Agronomie 3(6):513?C521, 1983); (2) the estimation of ET, by means of the PM equation, is made by using meteorological variables simulated on sloped sites as input; (3) these variables are simulated by using simple relationships linking the variables measured at a reference site on plane to the topographic characteristics of the site (slope, orientation, altitude as difference between reference, and sloped sites). This approach presents two advantages if compared with previously proposed models: Not only computation steps are greatly simplified but also error sources due to the simulation of climatic variables in sloped sites and the ET estimation are well distinguished. This model was validated at hourly and daily scales at four sites cultivated with wheat and oats offering a wide range of slope and orientation values: a reference site on plane, site 1 (9° sloping, NW orientation, 7 m from the reference site in plane), site 2 (6°, SE, 12 m) and site 3 (1°, SE, 18 m). At hourly scale, the new model performed well at all sites studied. The observed slope of the linear relationships between estimated and measured ET values ranged between 0.93 and 1.03, with coefficients of determination, r ², between 0.80 and 0.98. At daily scale, the slopes of the linear relationships between measured and estimated ET for the sites on plane and the sloped sites were practically the same (0.98?±?0.01); however, the coefficient of determination r ² observed in the site on plane was clearly greater (0.98) than that observed in the sloped sites (0.83). The presented analysis does not show any significant systematic effect of topography (slope and orientation of the plots) on the good performance of the proposed model for the ET estimation. Furthermore, we observed that coefficients of determination tend to decrease with the increase in the slope of the site, which translates into increased inaccuracy of the climatic variables simulation, in particular the net radiation, as the slope of the site increases. The proposed model allows to verify the different steps for calculating the fluxes, to identify the eventual sources of error and to make the needed corrections. For this reasons, the proposed model seems to be particularly ??operational??, i.e. a useful tool for estimating fluxes on hilly terrains.     

δB, Sr, Mg and B in a modern Porites coral: the relationship between calcification site pH and skeletal chemistry

Sr/Ca, B/Ca, Mg/Ca and δ¹¹B were determined at high spatial resolution across ∼1 year of a modern Hawaiian Porites lobata coral by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). We observe significant variations in B/Ca, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and δ¹¹B over short skeletal distances (nominally equivalent to periods of <20 days). This heterogeneity probably reflects variations in the composition of the extracellular calcifying fluid (ECF) from which the skeleton precipitates. Calcification site pH (total scale) was estimated from skeletal δ¹¹B and ranged from 8.3 to 8.8 (± ∼0.1) with a mean of ∼8.6. Sr/Ca and B/Ca heterogeneity is not simply correlated with calcification site pH, as might be expected if Ca-ATPase activity increases the pH and decreases the Sr/Ca and B(OH)₄⁻/CO₃²⁻ ratios of the ECF. We produced a simple model of the ECF composition and the skeleton deposited from it, over a range of calcium transport and carbonate scenarios, which can account for these observed geochemical variations. The relationship between the pH and Sr/Ca of the ECF is dependent on the concentration of DIC at the calcification site. At higher DIC concentrations the ECF has a high capacity to buffer the [H⁺] changes induced by Ca-ATPase pumping. Conversely, at low DIC concentrations, this buffering capacity is reduced and ECF pH changes more rapidly in response to Ca-ATPase pumping. The absence of a simple correlation between ECF pH and skeletal Sr/Ca implies that calcification occurred under a range of DIC concentrations, reflecting variations in the respiration and photosynthesis of the coral and symbiotic zooxanthellate in the overlying coral tissues. Our observations have important implications for the use of coral skeletons as indicators of palaeo-ocean pH.     

Flamingos,salt lakes and volcanoes: hunting for evidence of past climate change on the high Altiplano of Bolivia

Hidden within the vast Bolivian Altiplano are archives of past climate change in the form of remarkable carbonate rocks surrounding lakes long since disappeared. Beyond the Salar de Uyuni, the largest salt flat in the world, lies a relatively untouched realm of volcanoes and salt lakes. Ancient shorelines from intervals in the Altiplano history, when large lakes were more abundant, may hold important information about a time when the climate in this region was punctuated by much wetter phases before present day aridity took a hold. Previous studies in this region have reconstructed robust chronological timelines for such events and highlight two large lake phases over the last 18 thousand years (the Tauca and Coipasa lake phases); however higher resolution climate data are scarce. Current studies on climate proxies from smaller lakes in southern Bolivia may shed light on some of these higher resolution climate events including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Laminated tufa found around the palaeoshorelines of the West Lípez Lakes is one such proxy, and can be analysed to investigate the potential roles of annual versus shorter‐term climatic variation in the evolving Altiplano climate at the time.     

Yearly evolution of Euro-Atlantic weather regimes and of their sub-seasonal predictability

It is often assumed that weather regimes adequately characterize atmospheric circulation variability. However, regime classifications spanning many months and with a low number of regimes may not satisfy this assumption. The first aim of this study is to test such hypothesis for the Euro-Atlantic region. The second one is to extend the assessment of sub-seasonal forecast skill in predicting the frequencies of occurrence of the regimes beyond the winter season. Two regime classifications of four regimes each were obtained from sea level pressure anomalies clustered from October to March and from April to September respectively. Their spatial patterns were compared with those representing the annual cycle. Results highlight that the two regime classifications are able to reproduce most part of the patterns of the annual cycle, except during the transition weeks between the two periods, when patterns of the annual cycle resembling Atlantic Low regime are not also observed in any of the two classifications. Forecast skill of Atlantic Low was found to be similar to that of NAO+, the regime replacing Atlantic Low in the two classifications. Thus, although clustering yearly circulation data in two periods of 6 months each introduces a few deviations from the annual cycle of the regime patterns, it does not negatively affect sub-seasonal forecast skill. Beyond the winter season and the first ten forecast days, sub-seasonal forecasts of ECMWF are still able to achieve weekly frequency correlations of r = 0.5 for some regimes and start dates, including summer ones. ECMWF forecasts beat climatological forecasts in case of long-lasting regime events, and when measured by the fair continuous ranked probability skill score, but not when measured by the Brier skill score. Thus, more efforts have to be done yet in order to achieve minimum skill necessary to develop forecast products based on weather regimes outside winter season.

     

Modeling fracture porosity development using simple growth laws

A model of porosity development has been developed to investigate general relationships between simple fracture aperture growth laws and fracture porosity in evolved fracture arrays in aquifers. The growth of fracture apertures in two-dimensional orthogonal arrays with initially spatially uncorrelated lognormal aperture distributions has been studied, where aperture growth rate is proportional to an exponent of the flow rate through each fracture. The evolved arrays show geometrical phase changes as a function of the aperture growth rate exponent, e, and the standard deviation of the initial aperture distribution, sigma(z). Low values of e and sigma(z) lead to bimodal aperture distributions, where apertures parallel to flow are preferentially enlarged. At moderate values of e and sigma(z), there is a transition to a regime of more complex geometries consisting of networks of channel-like structures of preferentially enlarged apertures. At larger values of e, array-spanning channel-like paths of preferentially enlarged apertures develop, where the tortuosity of the channel-like paths is a linear function of sigma(z). Following an initial growth phase, during which dynamically stable aperture configurations develop, arrays undergo simple amplification. The geometry of the evolved aperture fields is diverse and they can be highly complex; consequently, parameterization and prediction of their evolution in terms of the initial aperture distributions and growth rate laws is not trivial.