Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.     

Karst groundwater vulnerability mapping: application of a new method in the Swabian Alb, Germany

Groundwater from karst aquifers is an important drinking water resource, which is, however, particularly vulnerable to contamination. Karst aquifers consequently need special protection. This paper discusses the concept of groundwater vulnerability mapping and the special characteristics of karst aquifers that are relevant in this context. On this basis, a new method of groundwater vulnerability mapping is proposed—the PI method. It can be applied for all types of aquifers, but provides special tools for karst. Vulnerability is assessed as the product of two factors: protective cover (P) and infiltration conditions (I). The method was first applied and compared with two other methods (EPIK and the German method) in a test site in the Swabian Alb, Germany. The results obtained with the different methods are discussed and an outlook on the role of vulnerability maps within an overall groundwater protections scheme is given.

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Resumen Las aguas subterráneas en medios kársticos suponen un recurso importante para uso de boca, pero es particularmente vulnerable a la contaminación, por lo que los acuíferos kársticos requieren una protección especial. Este artículo discute el concepto de cartografía de vulnerabilidad de las aguas subterráneas y las características propias de los acuíferos kársticos que son relevantes en este contexto. Con esta base, se propone un nuevo método para cartografiar la vulnerabilidad de las aguas subterráneas, denominado "PI". Puede ser aplicado a todo tipo de acuíferos, pero proporciona herramientas especiales en medios kársticos. Se establece la vulnerabilidad como resultado de dos factores: la cubierta protectora y las condiciones de infiltración. El método ha sido aplicado por vez primera y comparado con otros dos enfoques (EPIK y el método alemán) en un emplazamiento ubicado en Swabian Alb (Alemania). Se discute los resultados obtenidos con estos métodos y se incide en cuál es el papel que desempeñan los mapas de vulnerabilidad en el contexto de los esquemas generales de protección de las aguas subterráneas.

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Résumé L'eau souterraine des karsts est une importante ressource d'eau potable, cependant particulièrement vulnérable à la pollution. C'est pourquoi les aquifères karstiques nécessitent une protection particulière. Ce papier discute le concept de cartographie de la vulnérabilité de l'eau souterraine et les caractéristiques particulières des aquifères karstiques qui sont concernés dans ce contexte. Sur cette base, une nouvelle méthode de cartographie de la vulnérabilité de l'eau souterraine est proposée: la méthode PI. Elle peut être appliquée à tous les types d'aquifères, mais fournit des outils spécifiques au karst. La vulnérabilité est évaluée comme étant le produit de deux facteurs: les conditions de couverture protectrice (P) et d'infiltration (I). La méthode a été mise en oeuvre pour la première fois et comparée à deux autres méthodes (EPIK et la méthode allemande) sur un site test du Jura souabe (Allemagne). Les résultats obtenus avec les différentes méthodes sont discutés et le rôle des cartes de vulnérabilité dans un schéma général de protection des eaux souterraines est passé en revue.

     

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Reason for Concern Since the 18th Century and Earlier

During the last 20 years the concept of anthropogenic climate change has left academic circles and become a major public concern. Some people consider ‘global warming’ as the major environmental threat to the planet. Even though mostly considered a novel threat, a look into history tells us that claims of humans deliberately or unintentionally changing climate is a frequent phenomenon in Western culture. Climate change, due to natural and anthropogenic causes, has often been discussed since classical times. Environmental change including climate change was seen by some as a biblical mandate, to ‘complete the Creation’. In line with this view, the prospect of climate change was considered as a promising challenge in more modern times. Only since the middle of the 20th century, has anthropogenic climate change become a menacing prospect. The concept of anthropogenic climate change seems to be deeply embedded in popular thinking, at least in Europe, which resurfaces every now and then after scientific discoveries. Also, extreme weather phenomena have in the past often been explained by adverse human interference. A list of claims of anthropogenic climate modifications is presented; the remarkable similarity of the anthropogenic climate change debate in the second half of the 19th century is compared to the present situation. Of course, the present threat seems much more real than any of the historical predecessors, which turned out to be overestimated.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

The stochastic simulation of karst conduit network structure using anisotropic fast marching,and its application to a geologically complex alpine karst system

Hydrogeology Journal - Anisotropic fast-marching algorithms are computationally efficient tools for generating realistic maps of karst conduit networks, constrained by both the spatial extent and...     

A novel probe for point injections in groundwater monitoring wells

Hydrogeology Journal - Groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes often show complex flow behaviors that are essential to understand for the characterization of aquifer systems. In karst or...