Effect of element size on the static finite element analysis of steep slopes

The accuracy of the computed stress distribution near the free surface of vertical slopes was evaluated in this study as a function of the element size, including aspect ratio. To accomplish this objective, a parametric study was carried out comparing stresses computed using the finite element method (FEM) to those obtained from a physical model composed of photoelastic material. The results of the study indicate a reasonable agreement between a gelatin model and the FEM model for shear stresses, and an overall good agreement between the two models for the principal stresses. For stresses along the top of the slope, the height of the element tends to be more important than width or aspect ratio, at least for aspect ratios up to 4. In all cases, the greatest difference between the two models occurs in the vicinity of the slope. Specifically, if H is defined as the slope height, an element height of H/10 appears to be adequate for the study of stresses deep within the slope, such as for typical embankment analyses. However, for cases where tensile stresses in the vicinity of the slope face which are critical, such as for the stability analysis of steep slopes, element heights as small as H/32, or higher‐order elements, are necessary. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.     

A diagnostic model using ashfall data to determine eruption characteristic and atmospheric conditions during a major volcanic event

A model is developed for estimating location of a volcano relative to sample points in an associated ashfall, cloud height during eruption, and mean wind velocity during ash deposition. The ash deposit must cover a large area and have an elongate axis. The model appears to be applicable both to recent and to unobserved ashfalls in the past, provided adequate and representative ash samples are available. The opportunity to test the diagnostic model on volcanic ashfalls is limited by sparsity of the necessary input data. From more than 20 ashfalls described in the literature, the 1947 Hekla (Iceland) eruption is the only one which includes suitable particle size analyses taken from samples related to a well-defined axis. The application of the model to the Hekla ashfall is discussed.     

Statistical biases and errors inherent in photoclinometric surface slope estimation with natural light

Photoclinometry is the most common method used to obtain high-resolution topographic maps of planetary terrain. We derive the likelihood function of photoclinometric surface slope from (1) the probability distribution of the measured photon count of natural sunlight through a Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) including uncertainty due to camera shot noise, camera read noise, small-scale albedo fluctuation and atmospheric haze, and (2) a photometric model relating photocount to surface orientation. We then use classical estimation theory to determine the theoretically exact biases and errors inherent in photoclinometric surface slope and show when they may be approximated by asymptotic expressions for sufficiently high sample size. We show how small-scale albedo variability often dominates biases and errors, which may become an order of magnitude larger than surface slopes when surface reflectance has a weak dependence on surface tilt. We provide bounds on the minimum possible error of any unbiased photoclinometric surface slope estimate, and compute the sample sizes necessary to constrain errors within desired design thresholds.     

The Development of Laser Ablation ICP-MS and Calibration Strategies: Examples from the Analysis of Trace Elements in Volcanic Glass Shards and Sulfide Minerals

This contribution presents a review of the recent developments in laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We describe the important developments which have occurred in the laser systems used, leading to a spatial resolution of around 20 (im, and give an overview of the major instrument developments which have affected the geological applications of laser ablation ICP-MS. We describe the calibration of laser ablation for the analysis of trace elements in two different matrices: volcanic glass shards and sulfide minerals. We show how single glass shards can be analysed using the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) glass certified reference materials for calibration and demonstrate the effect of using single spot analyses compared to rastering of the calibration sample. We show the importance of inter-shard variation and demonstrate that averaged single shard analyses produce data which compare well with bulk analyses. The calibration of the laser system for sulfide mineral analysis is discussed and two different strategies are proposed, one using spiked pressed powder pellets of sulfides and the other metal reference materials. We present conclusions and recommendations for the calibration of laser ablation ICP-MS instruments.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.     

Computer-composite mapping for geologists

A computer program for overlaying maps has been tested and evaluated as a means for producing geologic derivative maps. Four maps of the Sugar House Quadrangle, Utah, were combined, using the Multi-Scale Data Analysis and Mapping Program, in a single composite map that shows the relative stability of the land surface during earthquakes. Computer-composite mapping can provide geologists with a powerful analytical tool and a flexible graphic display technique. Digitized map units can be shown singly, grouped with different units from the same map, or combined with units from other source maps to produce composite maps. The mapping program permits the user to assign various values to the map units and to specify symbology for the final map. Because of its flexible storage, easy manipulation, and capabilities of graphic output, the composite-mapping technique can readily be applied to mapping projects in sedimentary and crystalline terranes, as well as to maps showing mineral resource potential.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.