Modeling the Effects of Future Outflow on the Abiotic Habitat of an Imperiled Estuarine Fish

Future development and climate change pose potentially serious threats to estuarine fish populations around the world. We examined how habitat suitability for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a state and federally protected species, might be affected by changes in outflow in the San Francisco Estuary due to future development and climate change. Forty years of sampling data collected during fall from 1967 to 2008 were examined to define abiotic habitat suitability for delta smelt as a function of salinity and water transparency, and to describe long-term trends in habitat conditions. The annual habitat index we developed, which incorporated both quantity and quality of habitat, decreased by 78% over the study period. Future habitat index values under seven different development and climate change scenarios, representing a range of drier and wetter possibilities, were predicted using a model which related estuarine outflow to the habitat index. The results suggested that each of the scenarios would generally lead to further declines in delta smelt habitat across all water year types. Recovery targets for delta smelt will be difficult to attain if the modeled habitat conditions are realized.     

Project NOAH: Regulating modern sea-level rise. Phase II: Jerusalem Underground

This proposal builds a high-speed inter-urban express between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, generates 1500 megawatts of hydroelectric energy, curtails littoral erosion, builds a port along the Israeli Mediterranean coast and demands peaceful cooperation on both sides of the Jordan River. Phase II represents a pilot project demonstrating the feasibility of continuing to regulate world sea-level by a new series of water regulation schemes. Phase I previously described all those projects already completed or underway which have inadvertently and/or unintentionally served the purpose of sea-level regulation. These forms of Phase I sea-level regulation include large and small reservoirs, irrigation projects, water infiltration schemes, farm ponds, and swimming and reflecting pools. All these water storage projects have already exercised a very appreciable brake on 20th century sea-level rise. Phase II outlines a high-visibility proposal which will serve to illustrate the viability of “Project NOAH”.     

The atmospheric circulation and dust activity in different orbital epochs on Mars

A general circulation model is used to evaluate changes to the circulation and dust transport in the martian atmosphere for a range of past orbital conditions. A dust transport scheme, including parameterized dust lifting, is incorporated within the model to enable passive or radiatively active dust transport. The focus is on changes which relate to surface features, as these may potentially be verified by observations. Obliquity variations have the largest impact, as they affect the latitudinal distribution of solar heating. At low obliquities permanent CO₂ ice caps form at both poles, lowering mean surface pressures. At higher obliquities, solar insolation peaks at higher summer latitudes near solstice, producing a stronger, broader meridional circulation and a larger seasonal CO₂ ice cap in winter. Near-surface winds associated with the main meridional circulation intensify and extend polewards, with changes in cap edge position also affecting the flow. Hence the model predicts significant changes in surface wind directions as well as magnitudes. Dust lifting by wind stress increases with obliquity as the meridional circulation and associated near-surface winds strengthen. If active dust transport is used, then lifting rates increase further in response to the larger atmospheric dust opacities (hence circulation) produced. Dust lifting by dust devils increases more gradually with obliquity, having a weaker link to the meridional circulation. The primary effect of varying eccentricity is to change the impact of varying the areocentric longitude of perihelion, l, which determines when the solar forcing is strongest. The atmospheric circulation is stronger when l aligns with solstice rather than equinox, and there is also a bias from the martian topography, resulting in the strongest circulations when perihelion is at northern winter solstice. Net dust accumulation depends on both lifting and deposition. Dust which has been well mixed within the atmosphere is deposited preferentially over high topography. For wind stress lifting, the combination produces peak net removal within western boundary currents and southern midlatitude bands, and net accumulation concentrated in Arabia and Tharsis. In active dust transport experiments, dust is also scoured from northern midlatitudes during winter, further confining peak accumulation to equatorial regions. As obliquity increases, polar accumulation rates increase for wind stress lifting and are largest for high eccentricities when perihelion occurs during northern winter. For dust devil lifting, polar accumulation rates increase (though less rapidly) with obliquity above o=25°, but increase with decreasing obliquity below this, thus polar dust accumulation at low obliquities may be increasingly due to dust lifted by dust devils. For all cases discussed, the pole receiving most dust shifts from north to south as obliquity is increased.     

Water ice crystallinity and grain sizes on Dione

Saturn’s satellite Dione is becoming an increasingly important object in the outer Solar System, as evidence for its current activity accumulates. Infrared observations of the surface can provide clues to the history of the body and currently active processes. Using data from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS), we perform three sets of analyses that are sensitive to the ice state, temperature, thermal history, grain size and composition of surface ice. These are calculation of a “crystallinity factor”, spectral ratios and water ice band depths. In our analysis, we focus on the dichotomy between the wispy and dark terrain on Dione’s trailing hemisphere, to better understand the source of the different materials and their current properties. Our results suggest two different scenarios: (1) the ice from the wispy region has a higher crystallinity and water ice content than the dark region or (2) the wispy region contains larger grains. Both of these models imply recent geologic activity on Dione.     

Host galaxy morphologies of X-ray selected AGN: assessing the significance of different black hole fuelling mechanisms to the accretion density of the Universe at z∼ 1.

We use morphological information of X-ray selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts to set limits on the fraction of the accretion density of the Universe at   z ≈ 1  that is not likely to be associated with major mergers. Deep X-ray observations are combined with high-resolution optical data from the Hubble Space Telescope in the All-wavelength Extended Groth strip International Survey, Great Observatories Origins Deep Survey (GOODS) North and GOODS South fields to explore the morphological breakdown of X-ray sources in the redshift interval  0.5 < z < 1.3  . The sample is split into discs, early-type bulge-dominated galaxies, peculiar systems and point sources in which the nuclear source outshines the host galaxy. The X-ray luminosity function and luminosity density of AGN at   z ≈ 1  are then calculated as a function of morphological type. We find that disc-dominated hosts contribute  30 ± 9  per cent to the total AGN space density and  23 ± 6  per cent to the luminosity density at   z ≈ 1  . We argue that AGN in disc galaxies are most likely fuelled not by major merger events but by minor interactions or internal instabilities. We find evidence that these mechanisms may be more efficient in producing luminous AGN     compared to predictions for the stochastic fuelling of massive black holes in disc galaxies.     

Supervisory control system for the JASON ROV

A prototype supervisory control system for a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) is described and several key elements demonstrated in simulation and in-water tests. This system is specifically designed to fill the needs of JASON, a new ROV under development that will perform scientific tasks on the seafloor to depths of 6000 m. JASON will operate from the ARGO towed imaging platform, which is currently operational. Supervisory control is a paradigm for combined human and computer control. Several key elements of the supervisory control system are presented. These include the closed-loop positioning system based on a high-resolution acoustic navigation system, a monitoring capability for assessing performance and detecting undesirable changes, and an interface that allows the human operator and the computer system to specify the desired vehicle trajectory jointly.