Beyond carbon pricing: policy levers for negative emissions technologies

This paper explores policies for Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs), in an attempt to move beyond the supply-side focus of the majority of NETs research, as well as the current dominance of carbon pricing as the main NETs policy proposal. The paper identifies a number of existing policies from four key areas – energy/transport, agriculture, sub-soil, and oceans – which will have an impact on three NETs: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), Direct Air Capture (DAC), and terrestrial Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW). We propose that non-climate co-benefits may be valuable in terms of the policy ‘demand pull’ for NETs; in particular, we find that ERW may provide multiple co-benefits which can be mandated through existing policy structures. However, interaction with numerous policy areas may also create barriers, particularly where there is tension between the priorities of different government departments. On the basis of existing and analogous policies from a range of geographical contexts and scales, this paper proposes four options for NETs policy that could be reasonably implemented in the near-term. We also argue that ERW demonstrates the importance of scale and framing, because the policy environment depends on whether it is framed as a soil amendment at local scales or as a climate stabilization technique at international scale.

Key policy insights

• Co-benefits may assist the ‘demand pull’ for novel technologies by providing multiple policy angles for incentivisation rather than relying on a ‘fix-all’ policy such as a high carbon price.

• DAC with storage might be overly reliant on a high carbon price, because it only provides one core benefit – that of atmospheric carbon reduction.

• ERW may provide multiple co-benefits which can be mandated through existing policy structures, but should focus on using waste rock rather than mining virgin material.

• We propose four near-term options for NETs policy: funding for small-scale BECCS demonstration and an international biomass certification mechanism; small-scale loans for ERW on farms and promotion of locally-sourced rock residues; amendment of fertilizer subsidy schemes to include silicate rock; and a clearer framework for licensing sub-soil access for CO₂ storage.

     

Exploring Social and Spatial Patterns in Private Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: a case study of Brisbane and Sydney,Australia

Australian cities have seen continued growth in private car travel that has resulted in increasing vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. While much research has shown that vehicle demand is related to urban spatial structure, very little research has investigated the spatial patterns of private vehicle fuel efficiency (VFE) and its association with socio-spatial circumstances in urban areas. This study has combined State-level motor vehicle registration datasets with standard vehicle efficiency measures that permit a comprehensive understanding of spatial variation of VFE in urban areas. A spatial-based technique was applied to explore intra-urban patterns in socio-spatial conditions of private vehicle efficiency in Brisbane and Sydney. In both cities, the VFE of the private vehicle fleet tends to be lower in outer suburbs than in middle and inner suburbs. The analysis further shows that by linking the standard vehicle efficiency measures to the entire urban fleet datasets the VFE outcome showed a moderate relationship to socio-spatial variables in both cities. The built environment and household economic status are more transferable factors that relate to the VFE across different urban contexts. Outcomes from this research are of relevance to policy makers charged with identifying highly oil-vulnerable communities and designing intervention strategies to improve household vehicle efficiency.     

A Study of Governance Arrangements for Land Use and Natural Resource Management Planning in Cape York Peninsula

Complex intersecting social, economic and environmental dilemmas in Australia's Cape York Peninsula present a number of challenges for planners seeking to develop and implement land use and natural resource management (NRM) plans. There have been five different attempts at land use and NRM planning in Cape York Peninsula over the last 20 years. These processes have (to greater or lesser extents) failed to deliver community-owned and government-supported plans to guide development and/or the management of the region's natural resources. The region is remote, sparsely populated, and home to a significant Indigenous population. Much of the contestation within the region surrounds the access, use and ownership of the region's internationally valuable natural resources. This paper reviews, from the literature, the relevancy and applicability of criteria for best practice planning and governance. A range of identified best practice governance and planning principles are applied to assess the governance arrangements for planning in the Peninsula. The paper finds that decision-making arrangements for land use and NRM planning in the Peninsula are still in their infancy and are inadequate to support effective outcomes. The paper concludes that broader attention to best practice principles in governance for planning is needed to improve planning outcomes.     

Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii

This study discusses the scaling properties of the spatial distribution of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra aftershocks. We estimate the spatial correlation dimension D ₂ of the epicentral distribution of aftershocks recorded by a local network operated by Geological Survey of India. We estimate the value of D ₂ for five blocks in the source area by using generalized correlation integral approach. We assess its bias due to finite data points, scaling range, effects of location errors, and boundary effects theoretically and apply it to real data sets. The correlation dimension was computed both for real as well as synthetic data sets that include randomly generated point sets obtained using uniform distributions and mimicking the number of events and outlines of the effective areas filled with epicenters. On comparing the results from the real data and random point sets from simulations, we found the lower limit of bias in D ₂ estimates from limited data sets to be 0.26. Thus, the spatial variation in correlation dimensions among different blocks using local data sets cannot be directly compared unless the influence of bias in the real aftershock data set is taken into account. They cannot also be used to infer the geometry of the faults. We also discuss the results in order to add constraints on the use of synthetic data and of different approaches for uncertainty analysis on spatial variation of D ₂. A difference in D ₂ values, rather than their absolute values, among small blocks is of interest to local data sets, which are correlated with their seismic b values. Taking into account the possible errors and biases, the average D ₂ values vary from 1.05 to 1.57 in the Andaman–Nicobar region. The relative change in D ₂ values can be interpreted in terms of clustering and diffuse seismic activity associated with the low and high D ₂ values, respectively. Overall, a relatively high D ₂ and low b value is consistent with high-magnitude, diffuse activity in space in the source region of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake.     

Reconstructing flow paths of the Middle Pleistocene British Ice Sheet in central-eastern England: the application of regional soil geochemical data

High-density regional geochemical data for surface soils in central England and East Anglia reveal that much of their geochemical character is inherited from the tills that they are developed upon. Multivariate statistical analysis highlighted three significant element associations of Al–Fe–Ga–K–La–Mg–Rb, Ca–Sr and K–Fe accounting for almost 93% of the geochemical variability of soils derived from tills. Provenancing the geochemical signatures of the latter elements enabled the construction of ice flow paths associated with two different Middle Pleistocene ‘chalky’ till sheets. A lower till sheet relating to ‘Pennine’ ice flowing from west to east across the region, and an upper till sheet deposited by North Sea ice moving into northern East Anglia, and to the west of the Fen Basin, before fanning-out across central England. Overall, geochemical signatures of different till units are largely derived from local bedrock sources, with dilution and a new geochemical signature acquired as the ice flows over and incorporates new bedrock lithologies. The results show that high resolution soil geochemical data provides a further proxy with which the flow paths of former ice sheets can be delineated.     

Cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages for moraines in the Lago San Martin Valley, Argentina

At several times during the Quaternary, a major eastward-flowing outlet glacier of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet occupied the Lago San Martin Valley in Argentina (49°S, 72°W). We present a glacial chronology for the valley based on geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic nuclide (¹⁰Be) exposure ages (n = 10) of boulders on moraines and lake shorelines. There are five prominent moraine belts in the Lago San Martin Valley, associated with extensive sandar (glaciofluvial outwash plains) and former lake shorelines. Cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages for boulders on these moraines indicate that they formed at 14.3 ± 1.7 ka, 22.4 ± 2.3 ka, 34.4 ± 3.4 ka to 37.6 ± 3.4 ka (and possibly 60 ± 3.5 ka), and 99 ± 11 ka (1σ). These dated glacier advances differ from published chronologies from the Lago San Martin Valley based on ¹⁴C age determinations from organic sediments and molluscs in meltwater channels directly in front of moraines or in kettleholes within end moraine ridges. The moraine boulder ages also point to possible pre-LGM glacial advances during the last glacial cycle and a key observation from our data is that the LGM glaciers were probably less extensive in the Lago San Martin Valley than previously thought.     

The Geological Conservation Review (GCR) in Great Britain—Rationale and methods

Geoconservation – protecting, managing and enhancing natural geological features and materials, and geomorphological landforms and processes – is especially important in Great Britain, a place sometimes described as the ‘cradle’ of the science of geology. For such a small area of land, Britain has an unusually diverse geological make-up, with rocks from every geological period present. Many stratigraphical terms used internationally were devised here, and British sites provide key study areas where important new geological theories were developed in the pioneering era of the Earth sciences. Therefore, with such a wealth of geology, and Britain's seminal place in the science itself, it is particularly important to conserve and protect key localities here for future generations. A first step in that process is the auditing of the geology and geomorphology of Britain, by carrying out a scientific evaluation exercise according to standard criteria, and creating an inventory of the most important sites for science.In the mid-1970s, the Nature Conservancy Council (NCC) began an ambitious programme for assessment and documentation of the most important sites for the scientific study of geology and geomorphology in Great Britain, building on previous statutory site conservation activity that had already been started in 1949 by the former Nature Conservancy. As a result, the ‘Geological Conservation Review’ (GCR) was formally launched in 1977. The GCR was a world-first project of its type in the systematic assessment of the whole geological heritage of a country, from first principles. Widespread consultation with geologists and geomorphologists across Great Britain was co-ordinated; their guidance and involvement was a key component of the site selection process. Almost 3000 nationally or internationally important sites had been selected for around 100 site-selection categories for the GCR register by 1990. Almost all the GCR sites are now conserved under British law as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs), the GCR information providing the scientific evidence-base that underpins that designation.As part of the site-selection process – which is still active – a considerable archive of information about geological sites was amassed. A major publication exercise detailing all the GCR sites in what was to become the GCR Series of books was devised early on in the GCR programme.Thirty-six volumes of the GCR Series have been seen to completion by NCC and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, and many GCR site reports have been many made freely available on the World Wide Web. As a new venture, the remaining nine volumes will now be published by Elsevier Science Publishers as Special Issues of the Proceedings of the Geologists’ Association. Each GCR volume includes an overview of the subject and outlines the history of study of the relevant branch of the Earth sciences, but most importantly contains detailed accounts of the features of geological importance in the sites described. A scientific interpretation is provided for each site account, which includes supportive illustrations, tables and photographs and an extensive reference list.The GCR rationale, methods and information resource have been invaluable in almost every aspect of geoconservation carried out in Britain, including World Heritage Site nominations, protection of stratotypes, justifying the scientific conservation value of sites at Public Inquiries, in stimulating geological research and in providing a readily available information resource for local, regional, national and international geoconservation activities.     

Vulnerability and resilience of remote rural communities to shocks and global changes: Empirical analysis from Solomon Islands

Successful management of socio-ecological systems not only requires the development and field-testing of robust and measurable indices of vulnerability and resilience but also improved understanding of the contextual factors that influence societal capacity to adapt to change. We present the results of an analysis conducted in three coastal communities in Solomon Islands. An integrated assessment map was used to systematically scan the communities’ multiple dimensions of vulnerability and to identify factors affecting households’ perception about their capacity to cope with shocks (resilience). A multivariate probit approach was used to explore relationships amongst factors. Social processes such as community cohesion, good leadership, and individual support to collective action were critical factors influencing the perception that people had about their community's ability to build resilience and cope with change. The analysis also suggests a growing concern for a combination of local (internal) and more global (external) contingencies and shocks, such as the erosion of social values and fear of climate change.