European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Monitoring volcanic hazard using eddy covariance at Solfatara volcano, Naples, Italy

An eddy covariance (EC) station was deployed at Solfatara crater, Italy, June 8–25, 2001 to assess if EC could reliably monitor CO₂ fluxes continuously at this site. Deployment at six different locations within the crater allowed areas of focused gas venting to be variably included in the measured flux. Turbulent (EC) fluxes calculated in 30-min averages varied between 950 and 4460 g CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹; the highest measurements were made downwind of degassing pools. Comparing turbulent fluxes with chamber measurements of surface fluxes using footprint models in diffuse degassing regions yielded an average difference of 0% (±4%), indicating that EC measurements are representative of surface fluxes at this volcanic site. Similar comparisons made downwind of degassing pools yielded emission rates from 12 to 27 t CO₂ d⁻¹ for these features. Reliable EC measurements (i.e. measurements with sufficient and stationary turbulence) were obtained primarily during daytime hours (08:00 and 20:00 local time) when the wind speed exceeded 2 m s⁻¹. Daily average EC fluxes varied by ±50% and variations were likely correlated to changes in atmospheric pressure. Variations in CO₂ emissions due to volcanic processes at depth would have to be on the same order of magnitude as the measured diurnal variability in order to be useful in predicting volcanic hazard. First-order models of magma emplacement suggest that emissions could exceed this rate for reasonable assumptions of magma movement. EC therefore provides a useful method of monitoring volcanic hazard at Solfatara. Further, EC can monitor significantly larger areas than can be monitored by previous methods.     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Morphology and distribution of fossil soils in the Permo-Pennsylvanian Wichita and Bowie Groups, north-central Texas, USA: implications for western equatorial Pangean palaeoclimate during icehouse–greenhouse transition

Analysis of stacked Permo‐Pennsylvanian palaeosols from north‐central Texas documents the influence of palaeolandscape position on pedogenesis in aggradational depositional settings. Palaeosols of the Eastern shelf of the Midland basin exhibit stratigraphic trends in the distribution of soil horizons, structure, rooting density, clay mineralogy and colour that record long‐term changes in soil‐forming conditions driven by both local processes and regional climate. Palaeosols similar to modern histosols, ultisols, vertisols, inceptisols and entisols, all bearing morphological, mineralogical and chemical characteristics consistent with a tropical, humid climate, represent the Late Pennsylvanian suite of palaeosol orders. Palaeosols similar to modern alfisols, vertisols, inceptisols, aridisols and entisols preserve characteristics indicative of a drier and seasonal tropical climate throughout the Lower Permian strata. The changes in palaeosol morphology are interpreted as being a result of an overall climatic trend from relatively humid and tropical, moist conditions characterized by high rainfall in the Late Pennsylvanian to progressively drier, semi‐arid to arid tropical climate characterized by seasonal rainfall in Early Permian time. Based on known Late Palaeozoic palaeogeography and current hypotheses for atmospheric circulation over western equatorial Pangea, the Pennsylvanian palaeosols in this study may be recording a climate that is the result of an orographic control over regional‐scale atmospheric circulation. The trend towards a drier climate interpreted from the Permian palaeosols may be recording the breakdown of this pre‐existing orographic effect and the onset of a monsoonal atmospheric circulation system over this region.     

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.     

Kinetics of Cd sorption, desorption and fixation by calcite: A long-term radiotracer study

Time-dependent sorption and desorption of Cd on calcite was studied over 210 days utilizing ¹⁰⁹Cd as a tracer to distinguish between ‘labile’ and ‘non-labile’ forms of sorbed Cd. Stabilizing the calcite suspensions for 12 months under atmospheric P_CO2 and controlled temperature was necessary to reliably follow Cd dynamics following initial sorption. Results revealed time-dependant Cd sorption and marked desorption hysteresis by calcite under environmentally relevant conditions. Data obtained were fitted to a first-order kinetic model and a concentric shell diffusion model. Both models described the progressive transfer of Cd²⁺ to a less reactive form within calcite and subsequent desorption of Cd subject to different initial contact times. The kinetic model provided a better fit to the combined sorption and desorption data (R² = 0.992). It differentiates between two ‘pools’ of sorbed Cd²⁺ on calcite, ‘labile’ and ‘non-labile’, in which labile sorbed Cd is in immediate equilibrium with the free Cd²⁺ ion activity in solution whereas non-labile Cd is kinetically restricted. For the diffusion model (R² = 0.959), the rate constants describing Cd dynamics in calcite produced a half-life for Cd desorption of ∼175 d, for release to a ‘zero-sink’ solution. Results from this study allow comment on the likely mechanisms occurring at the calcite surface following long-term Cd sorption.     

Paleomagnetism of Late Cretaceous Poços de Caldas alkaline complex,Southern Brazil

The paleomagnetism of the Late Cretaceous Poços de Caldas alkaline complex (46.6°W, 21.9°S) was investigated through 42 oriented cores from seven sites. Six sites, reversed relative to the present magnetic field of the Earth, yield a pole at 127°W, 82°S (dp = 8°,dm = 13°). This pole is located close to other Late Cretaceous poles for South America obtained by Creer [1] from untreated paleomagnetic samples. The results are significantly different from those for the nearby Early Cretaceous Serra Geral basalt but close to the Triassic pole for South America. The polar wandering path for South America for the Mesozoic seems to be more complicated than anticipated. The available paleomagnetic information may not yet be precise enough to determine the time of opening of the Atlantic.     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part II – sedimentological evidence of phased land degradation

Soil resources in parts of Tanzania are rapidly being depleted by increased rates of soil erosion and downstream sediment transport, threatening ecosystem health, water and livelihood security in the region. However, incomplete understanding to what effect the dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport are responding to land-use changes and climatic variability are hindering the actions needed to future-proof Tanzanian land-use practices. Complementary environmental diagnostic tools were applied to reconstruct the rates and sources of sedimentation over time in three Tanzanian river systems that have experienced changing land use and climatic conditions. Detailed historical analysis of sediment deposits revealed drastic changes in sediment yield and source contributions. Quantitative sedimentation reconstruction using radionuclide dating showed a 20-fold increase in sediment yield over the past 120 years. The observed dramatic increase in sediment yield is most likely driven by increasing land-use pressures. Deforestation, cropland expansion and increasing grazing pressures resulted into accelerating rates of sheet erosion. A regime shift after years of progressive soil degradation and convergence of surface flows resulted into a highly incised landscape, where high amounts of eroded soil from throughout the catchment are rapidly transported downstream by strongly connected ephemeral drainage networks. By integrating complementary spatial and temporal evidence bases, this study demonstrated links between land-use change, increased soil erosion and downstream sedimentation. Such evidence can guide stakeholders and policy makers in the design of targeted management interventions to safeguard future soil health and water quality.     

Entanglement of New Zealand fur seals in man-made debris at Kaikoura, New Zealand

New Zealand fur seals in the Kaikoura region breed near a town with expanding tourist and fishing industries and commonly come ashore entangled in nets and plastic debris. However, the rate at which entanglement occurs was previously unknown. A decade of Department of Conservation seal callout data was analysed to determine the level of entanglement in the region and the most common debris type. Monitoring of adult female fur seals released from entanglement provided information on the potential for serious wounds to heal and survivorship of released individuals. Entanglement rates of pinnipeds in Kaikoura are some of the highest reported world-wide (average range: 0.6-2.8%) with green trawl net (42%), and plastic strapping tape (31%) together contributing the most to debris types. Nearly half of the reported entangled seals are successfully released (43%) and post-release monitoring shows that with appropriate intervention the chance of an individual surviving even with a significant entanglement wound is high. Our study demonstrates that while entanglement in the region is high, a successful intervention protocol may help reduce the potential for entanglement-related mortality in the region.     

A Single Packer Method for Characterizing Water Contributing Fractures in Crystalline Bedrock Wells

Water levels and water quality of open borehole wells in fractured bedrock are flow-weighted averages that are a function of the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fractures, properties that are rarely known. Without such knowledge using water levels and water quality data from fractured bedrock wells to assess groundwater flow and contaminant conditions can be highly misleading. This study demonstrates a cost-effective single packer method to determine the hydraulic heads and transmissivities of water contributing fracture zones in crystalline bedrock wells. The method entails inflating a pipe plug to isolate sections of an open borehole at different depths and monitoring changes in the water level with time. At each depth, the change in water level with time was used to determine the sum of fracture transmissivities above the packer and then to solve for individual fracture transmissivity. Steady-state wellbore heads along with the transmissivities were used to determine individual fracture heads using the weighted average head equation. The method was tested in five wells in crystalline bedrock located at the University of Connecticut in Storrs. The single packer head and transmissivity results were found to agree closely with those determined using conventional logging methods and the dissolved oxygen alteration method. The method appears to be a simple and cost-effective alternative in obtaining important information on flow conditions in fractured crystalline bedrock wells.