An assessment of large-scale flood modelling based on LiDAR data

Large-scale flood modelling approaches designed for regional to continental scales usually rely on relatively simple assumptions to represent the potentially highly complex river bathymetry at the watershed scale based on digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution in the range of 25–30 m. Here, high-resolution (1 m) LiDAR DEMs are employed to present a novel large-scale methodology using a more realistic estimation of bathymetry based on hydrogeomorphological GIS tools to extract water surface slope. The large-scale 1D/2D flood model LISFLOOD-FP is applied to validate the simulated flood levels using detailed water level data in four different watersheds in Quebec (Canada), including continuous profiles over extensive distances measured with the HydroBall technology. A GIS-automated procedure allows to obtain the average width required to run LISFLOOD-FP. The GIS-automated procedure to estimate bathymetry from LiDAR water surface data uses a hydraulic inverse problem based on discharge at the time of acquisition of LiDAR data. A tiling approach, allowing several small independent hydraulic simulations to cover an entire watershed, greatly improves processing time to simulate large watersheds with a 10-m resampled LiDAR DEM. Results show significant improvements to large-scale flood modelling at the watershed scale with standard deviation in the range of 0.30 m and an average fit of around 90%. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the need to collect expensive bathymetry data to efficiently and accurately simulate flood levels over extensive areas.     

Exploring the Moon's surface for remnants of the lunar mantle 1. Dunite xenoliths in mare basalts. A crustal or mantle origin?

Remotely sensed observations from recent missions (e.g., GRAIL, Kaguya, Chandrayaan‐1) have been interpreted as indicating that the deep crust and upper mantle are close to or at the lunar surface in many large impact basins (e.g., Crisium, Apollo, Moscoviense). If this is correct, the capability of either impact or volcanic processes to transport mantle lithologies to the lunar surface should be enhanced in these regions. Somewhat problematic to these observations and interpretations is that examples of mantle lithologies in the lunar sample collection (Apollo Program, Luna Program, lunar meteorites) are at best ambiguous. Dunite xenoliths in high‐Ti mare basalt 74275 are one of these ambiguous examples. In this high‐Ti mare basalt, olivine occurs in three generations: olivine associated with dunite xenoliths, olivine megacrysts, and olivine microphenocrysts. The dunite xenoliths are anhedral in shape and are generally greater than 800 μm in diameter. The interior of the xenoliths are fairly homogeneous with regard to many divalent cations. For example, the Mg# (Mg/Mg + Fe × 100) ranges from 82 to 83 in their interiors and decreases from 82 to 68 over the 10–30 μm wide outer rim. Titanium and phosphorus X‐ray maps of the xenolith illustrate that these slow diffusing elements preserve primary cumulate zoning textures. These textures indicate that the xenoliths consist of many individual olivine grains approximately 150–200 μm in diameter with low Ti, Al, and P cores. These highly incompatible elements are enriched in the outer Fe‐rich rims of the xenoliths and slightly enriched in the rims of the individual olivine grains. Highly compatible elements in olivine such as Ni exhibit a decrease in the rim surrounding the xenolith, an increase in the incompatible element depleted cores of the individual olivine grains, and a slight decrease in the “interior rims” of the individual olivine grains. Inferred melt composition, liquid lines of descent, and zoning profiles enable the reconstruction of the petrogenesis of the dunite xenoliths. Preservation of primary magmatic zoning (Ti, P, Al) and lack of textures similar to high‐pressure mineral assemblages exhibited by the Mg‐suite (Shearer et al. 2015) indicate that these xenoliths do not represent deep crustal or shallow mantle lithologies. Further, they are chemically and mineralogically distinct from Mg‐suite dunites identified from the Apollo 17 site. More likely, they represent olivine cumulates that crystallized from a low‐Ti mare basalt at intermediate to shallow crustal levels. The parent basalt to the dunite xenolith lithology was more primitive than low‐Ti basalts thus far returned from the Moon. Furthermore, this parental magma and its more evolved daughter magmas are not represented in the basalt sample suite returned from the Taurus‐Littrow Valley by the Apollo 17 mission. The dunite xenolith records several episodes of crystallization and re‐equilibration. During the last episode of re‐equilibration, the dunite cumulate was sampled by the 74275 high‐Ti basalt and transported over a period of 30–70 days to the lunar surface.     

A multi-proxy lacustrine record of Holocene climate change on northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

Reconstructions of past environmental changes are critical for understanding the natural variability of Earth's climate system and for providing a context for present and future global change. Radiocarbon-dated lake sediments from Lake CF3, northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, are used to reconstruct past environmental conditions over the last 11,200 years. Numerous proxies, including chironomid-inferred July air temperatures, diatom-inferred lakewater pH, and sediment organic matter, reveal a pronounced Holocene thermal maximum as much as 5°C warmer than historic summer temperatures from 10,000 to 8500 cal yr B.P. Following rapid cooling 8500 cal yr B.P., Lake CF3 proxies indicate cooling through the late Holocene. At many sites in northeastern Canada, the Holocene thermal maximum occurred later than at Lake CF3; this late onset of Holocene warmth is generally attributed to the impacts of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet on early Holocene temperatures in northeastern Canada. However, the lacustrine proxies in Lake CF3 apparently responded to insolation-driven warmth, despite the proximity of Lake CF3 to the Laurentide Ice Sheet and its meltwater. The magnitude and timing of the Holocene thermal maximum at Lake CF3 indicate that temperatures and environmental conditions at this site are highly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing.     

Ice lines, planetesimal composition and solid surface density in the solar nebula

To date, there is no core accretion simulation that can successfully account for the formation of Uranus or Neptune within the observed 2–3 Myr lifetimes of protoplanetary disks. Since solid accretion rate is directly proportional to the available planetesimal surface density, one way to speed up planet formation is to take a full accounting of all the planetesimal-forming solids present in the solar nebula. By combining a viscously evolving protostellar disk with a kinetic model of ice formation, which includes not just water but methane, ammonia, CO and 54 minor ices, we calculate the solid surface density of a possible giant planet-forming solar nebula as a function of heliocentric distance and time. Our results can be used to provide the starting planetesimal surface density and evolving solar nebula conditions for core accretion simulations, or to predict the composition of planetesimals as a function of radius. We find three effects that favor giant planet formation by the core accretion mechanism: (1) a decretion flow that brings mass from the inner solar nebula to the giant planet-forming region, (2) the fact that the ammonia and water ice lines should coincide, according to recent lab results from Collings et al. [Collings, M.P., Anderson, M.A., Chen, R., Dever, J.W., Viti, S., Williams, D.A., McCoustra, M.R.S., 2004. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 354, 1133–1140], and (3) the presence of a substantial amount of methane ice in the trans-saturnian region. Our results show higher solid surface densities than assumed in the core accretion models of Pollack et al. [Pollack, J.B., Hubickyj, O., Bodenheimer, P., Lissauer, J.J., Podolak, M., Greenzweig, Y., 1996. Icarus 124, 62–85] by a factor of 3–4 throughout the trans-saturnian region. We also discuss the location of ice lines and their movement through the solar nebula, and provide new constraints on the possible initial disk configurations from gravitational stability arguments.     

Statistics of extremes in climate change

This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics of extremes in climate change research. So far, the statistical theory of extreme values has been primarily applied to climate under the assumption of stationarity. How this theory can be applied in the context of climate change, including implications for the analysis of the economic impacts of extremes, is described. Future research challenges include the statistical modeling of complex extreme events, such as heat waves, and taking into account spatial dependence in the statistical modeling of extremes for fields of climate observations or of numerical model output. Addressing these challenges will require increased collaboration between climate scientists and statisticians.     

Geological setting and SHRIMP U–Pb geochronological evidence for ca. 2680–2660 Ma lode-gold mineralization at Jundee–Nimary in the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

The 7 million oz. Jundee–Nimary lode-gold deposit occurs in the northern portion of the Yandal greenstone belt in the northeastern part of the Archean Yilgarn Craton of Western Australia. Gold mineralization at Jundee–Nimary is similar in structural style, mineralogy, geochemistry and relative timing with respect to deformation and metamorphism, to other Western Australian Archean greenstone-hosted gold deposits, but is unusual in the fact that mineralized structures are crosscut by structurally late intermediate to felsic dykes. Within the Deakin South open cut, gold mineralization is hosted in brittle–ductile shear zones primarily developed within the dacitic Mitchell Porphyry. The Moore Porphyry, a broad dyke of porphyritic granodiorite, intrudes the Mitchell Porphyry, crosscutting and post-dating gold mineralization. Analytically indistinguishable SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages of 2678 ± 5 Ma for the Mitchell Porphyry and 2669 ± 7 Ma for the Moore Porphyry require that gold mineralization at Jundee–Nimary occurred at ca. 2680–2660 Ma, approximately 40 million years earlier than the majority of published robust ages for gold mineralization in the Yilgarn Craton, which mostly overlap at ca. 2640–2630 Ma. The close spatial and temporal relationship between gold mineralization and felsic to intermediate magmatism at Jundee–Nimary also raises the possibility of a genetic link between hydrothermal and igneous activity. However, additional work is required to establish a firm connection. Current research on lode-gold mineralization in Archean, Paleozoic and Phanerozoic terranes suggests a model which postulates that these deposits formed during transpressional to compressional deformation in accretionary and collisional orogens and that their formation is intimately related to orogenic processes. Consequently, mineralization and regional metamorphism are expected to be diachronous, as terranes are accreted and the front of orogenesis migrates. Consideration of the new data presented in this paper in conjunction with previously published dates supports the hypothesis that gold mineralization, along with regional metamorphism, was generally diachronous from northeast to southwest across the Yilgarn Craton, over a period of approximately 40 million years from ca. 2680–2660 Ma to ca. 2640–2630 Ma. This is directly analogous to the accepted model for the timing of orogenic lode-gold mineralization in other provinces and therefore provides further support for a unified model for this style of deposit through geological time. Received: 17 March 2000 / Accepted: 8 September 2000