A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space

River discharge is currently monitored by a diminishing network of gauges, which provide a spatially incomplete picture of global discharges. This study assimilated water level information derived from a fused satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image and digital terrain model (DTM) with simulations from a coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model to estimate discharge in an un‐gauged basin scenario. Assimilating water level measurements led to a 79% reduction in ensemble discharge uncertainty over the coupled hydrological hydrodynamic model alone. Measurement bias was evident, but the method still provided a means of improving estimates of discharge for high flows. The study demonstrates the potential of currently available synthetic aperture radar imagery to reduce discharge uncertainty in un‐gauged basins when combined with model simulations in a data assimilation framework, where sufficient topographic data are available. The work is timely because in the near future the launch of satellite radar missions will lead to a significant increase in the volume of data available for space‐borne discharge estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Zones of required investigation for earthquake-related hazards in Jerusalem

Jerusalem was hit by earthquakes several times in its history, in the course of which none of the holy sites of the three main faiths of the western world escaped damage. Intensities of the last M_L 6.2, July 11, 1927 Dead Sea earthquake, reached MSK VIII in the Old City of Jerusalem and the surrounding villages. As future strong earthquakes are inevitable, the need for the evaluation of earthquake-related hazards is obvious. Only general geotechnical properties of the section exposed in the mountainous area of Jerusalem are available; therefore, the hazard assessment was conducted from a geological perspective. The hazards identified in this study are: (1) amplification of seismic acceleration due to soft rock and soil conditions; (2) amplification due to mountainous topography; (3) dynamic instability of natural slopes; and (4) potential failure of slopes that have undergone engineering development and were weakened due to damaging, steepening, overloading, and wetting beyond their natural state. We formulated relative grades of vulnerability for each of the hazards and delineated the zones that require further specific investigation. For practical use we constructed a summary map that combines the different hazard categories. Looking at the summary map, the ground at the central N–S axis zone across Jerusalem is the least vulnerable. The bedrock there is mostly hard carbonate, the topography is mild, and thus only the alluvial cover, if thicker than 3 m, should be considered sensitive. Yet although the natural hazard in this area is limited, the risk should not be underrated. Much of the city lies there, including buildings constructed before antiseismic codes were regulated, and traditional engineering practice should not be taken for granted as antiseismic proof either. Eastwards, the shear wave velocity (Vs) contrast between the hard and soft rocks as well as the notable topography in places, impose the potential for amplification. Slopes, either naturally or artificially cutting into the soft chalk, may expose the area to dynamic instability; thus, the ongoing extensive development of the city in this direction should certainly take into account all of this. West of the central axis, the potential of failure of both steep natural and urbanized slopes appears. Being a plausible direction for future urban expansion, these areas specifically call for careful environmental and engineering planning. For engineering purposes, however, a specific site investigation is still necessary. Nevertheless, the summary map established in this study sets up for Jerusalem, for the first time, a practical tool for environmental and municipal planning, emergency response planning, and civil protection.     

Proximity to ice fields and lake depth as modulators of paleoclimate records: a regional study from southwest Yukon,Canada

Pronounced climate warming during the past century has been well documented in high-latitude regions. Nonetheless, considerable heterogeneity exists in northern climate trends. We examined the roles of cryospheric landscape and lake depth in modulating the rate and magnitude of local climate responses through a paleolimnological study of lakes from southwest Yukon, Canada. By sampling lakes at varying distances from the Wrangell-St. Elias ice fields, we hypothesized that, for lakes of similar maximum depth, sites closest to the ice fields would be relatively complacent in terms of their chironomid and diatom assemblage changes over the past ~200 years. This hypothesis is based on the moderating effect of the glaciers on local climate, which would be most pronounced in the lakes nearest to the ice fields. However, given the known ecological differences between deep and shallow lakes, we further predicted that, for a given distance from the ice fields, a sediment record from a shallower lake would show the greatest change in stratigraphic subfossil assemblages. Because of the complicated shape of the ice fields, we applied the longitude for each site (which decreases from west to east) to approximate the proximity of our study lakes to the ice fields. Consistent with our predictions, we observed a space-transgressive pattern in the chironomid assemblage turnover that was associated with their proximity to the ice fields (r = ?0.75, P = 0.034, n = 8) across lakes of similar depth (mean maximum depth ± 1, SE = 18.1 ± 2.6 m). Considering a broader network of lakes that represented a greater range in maximum depth (4.9–29 m), we found that differences in subfossil chironomid assemblages between the modern and ca. AD 1800 sediment layers were strongly related to lake depth (r = ?0.77, P < 0.001, n = 15), but failed to detect a significant relationship with latitude or longitude (i.e. our proxy for proximity to the ice fields). Similarly, our comparative high-resolution analyses of two lakes with distinct lake morphometries, but similar proximities to the ice fields, demonstrated the predicted contrasting pattern: we observed pronounced post-1880 changes in the biotic assemblages in the shallow lake and a muted and delayed response (i.e. ~1970s) in the deeper lake. Our findings confirm that cryospheric landscape features can strongly modulate regional climate. Furthermore, our work shows that investigators need to be conscious of how climate change affects the structure and functioning of lakes of different typologies, which influences the way in which paleoclimate signals are recorded and interpreted.     

Geochemical features and origin of natural gas in heavy oil area of the Western Slope,Songliao Basin,China

The Western Slope of the Songliao Basin is rich in heavy oil resources (>70 × 10⁸ bbl), around which there are shallow gas reservoirs (∼1.0 × 10¹² m³). The gas is dominated by methane with a dryness over 0.99, and the non-hydrocarbon component being overwelmingly nitrogen. Carbon isotope composition of methane and its homologs is depleted in ¹³C, with δ¹³C₁ values being in the range of −55‰ to −75‰, δ¹³C₂ being in the range of −40‰ to −53‰ and δ¹³C₃ being in the range of −30‰ to −42‰, respectively. These values differ significantly from those solution gases source in the Daqing oilfield. This study concludes that heavy oils along the Western Slope were derived from mature source rocks in the Qijia-Gulong Depression, that were biodegraded. The low reservoir temperature (30–50 °C) and low salinity of formation water with neutral to alkaline pH (NaHCO₃) appeared ideal for microbial activity and thus biodegradation. Natural gas along the Western Slope appears mainly to have originated from biodegradation and the formation of heavy oil. This origin is suggested by the heavy δ¹³C of CO₂ (−18.78‰ to 0.95‰) which suggests that the methane was produced via fermentation as the terminal decomposition stage of the oil.     

Basait generation at the Apollo 12 site,Part 2: Source heterogeneity,multiple melts,and crustal contamination

Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.