Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

The growth of central and satellite galaxies in cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations

We examine the accretion and merger histories of central and satellite galaxies in a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) cosmological simulation that resolves galaxies down to  7 × 10⁹ M_⊙  . Most friends-of-friends haloes in the simulation have a distinct central galaxy, typically 2–5 times more massive than the most massive satellite. As expected, satellites have systematically higher assembly redshifts than central galaxies of the same baryonic mass, and satellites in more massive haloes form earlier. However, contrary to the simplest expectations, satellite galaxies continue to accrete gas and convert it to stars; the gas accretion declines steadily over a period of 0.5–1 Gyr after the satellite halo merges with a larger parent halo. Satellites in a cluster mass halo eventually begin to lose baryonic mass. Typically, satellites in our simulation are 0.1–0.2 mag bluer than in models that assume no gas accretion on to satellites after a halo merger. Since   z = 1  , 27 per cent of central galaxies (above  3 × 10¹⁰ M_⊙  ) and 22 per cent of present-day satellite galaxies have merged with a smaller system above a 1:4 mass ratio; about half of the satellite mergers occurred after the galaxy became a satellite and half before. In effect, satellite galaxies can remain 'central' objects of halo substructures, with continuing accretion and mergers, making the transition in assembly histories and physical properties a gradual one. Implementing such a gradual transformation in semi-analytic models would improve their agreement with observed colour distributions of satellite galaxies in groups and with the observed colour dependence of galaxy clustering.     

A new gravitational lens from the MUSCLES survey: ULAS J082016.1+081216

We present observations of a new double-image gravitational lens system, ULAS J082016.1+081216, of image separation 2.3 arcsec and high (∼6) flux ratio. The system is selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic quasar list using new high-quality images from the UKIRT (United Kingdom Infrared Telescope) Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS). The lensed quasar has a source redshift of 2.024, and we identify the lens galaxy as a faint red object of redshift  0.803 ± 0.001  . Three other objects from the UKIDSS survey, selected in the same way, were found not to be lens systems. Together with the earlier lens found using this method, the SDSS–UKIDSS lenses have the potential to significantly increase the number of quasar lenses found in SDSS, to extend the survey to higher flux ratios and lower separations, and to give greater completeness which is important for statistical purposes.     

Rapid incorporation of lipids into macromolecules during experimental decay of invertebrates: Initiation of geopolymer formation

Diagenetic alteration is critical for the preservation of fossil cuticles of plant and animal origin and to the formation of kerogen. The process takes place over millions of years, but the stage at which it is initiated is not known. Laboratory decay experiments were carried out on shrimps, scorpions and cockroaches to monitor changes in the chitin–protein of the arthropod cuticle and associated lipids. The cockroach and scorpion exoskeleton remained largely unaltered morphologically, but the shrimp experienced rapid decomposition within a month, which progressed through the 44 week duration of the experiment as revealed using electron microscopy. Mass spectrometry and ¹³C NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance) spectroscopy revealed the association of an n-alkyl component with labile lipids, such as fatty acids with up to 24 carbon atoms, which were incorporated into the decaying macromolecule. The scorpion and cockroach cuticle did not reveal the incorporation of additional lipids, indicating that decay is important in initiating in situ lipid association. This experiment provides evidence that lipids can become associated with carbohydrate and proteinaceous macromolecules during the very early stages of decay, representing the first stage in the transformation process that contributes to the aliphatic rich composition ubiquitous in organic fossils and kerogen.     

Aerial electromagnetic sounding of the lithosphere of Venus

Electromagnetic (EM) investigation depths are larger on Venus than Earth due to the dearth of water in rocks, in spite of higher temperatures. Whistlers detected by Venus Express proved that lightning is present, so the Schumann resonances ～10–40 Hz may provide a global source of electromagnetic energy that penetrates ～10–100 km. Electrical conductivity will be sensitive at these depths to temperature structure and hence thermal lithospheric thickness. Using 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we demonstrate that the Schumann resonances—transverse EM waves in the ground-ionosphere waveguide—remain sensitive at all altitudes to the properties of the boundaries. This is in marked contrast to other EM methods in which sensitivity to the ground falls off sharply with altitude. We develop a 1D analytical model for aerial EM sounding that treats the electrical properties of the subsurface (thermal gradient, water content, and presence of conductive crust) and ionosphere, and the effects of both random errors and biases that can influence the measurements. We initially consider specified 1D lithospheric thicknesses 100–500 km, but we turn to 2D convection models with Newtonian temperature-dependent viscosity to provide representative vertical and lateral temperature variations. We invert for the conductivity-depth structure and then temperature gradient. For a dry Venus, we find that the error on temperature gradient obtained from any single local measurement is ～100%—perhaps enough to distinguish “thick” vs. “thin” lithospheres. When averaging over thousands of kilometers, however, the standard deviation of the recovered thermal gradient is within the natural variability of the convection models, <25%. A “wet” interior (hundreds of ppm H₂O) limits EM sounding depths using the Schumann resonances to <20 km, and errors are too large to estimate lithospheric properties. A 30-km conductive crust has little influence on the dry-interior models because the Schumann penetration depths are significantly larger. We conclude that EM sounding of the interior of Venus is feasible from a 55-km high balloon. Lithospheric thickness can be measured if the upper-mantle water content is low. If H₂O at hundreds of ppm is present, the deeper, temperature-sensitive structure is screened, but the “wet” nature of the upper mantle, as well as structure of the upper crust, is revealed.     

Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Upper Oligocene of Antigua: the volcanic to limestone transition in a limestone Caribbee

Antigua is a small island at the northern end of the Lesser Antilles chain. Its geology is largely limited to the Upper Oligocene and it records with unusual fidelity the transition from island arc volcanism to quiescence and limestone deposition. Despite the apparent limitation of a rock record confined to a short stratigraphical interval, Antigua has a geodiversity that ranges from thick andesites through silicified logs and freshwater snails in cherts to limestones that include both shallow and deeper water facies, and fine karstic features.