场兆与源兆的追踪识别

云南省单台地震预报６年报准了１２次５．２～７．３级地震。总结了反映孕震过程的矢量凹形、应力凹形、地电凹形等３种凹形震兆,阐述了水汞、水氡突跳,形变相关系数和地磁最大相关系数等前兆图像及其预报作用。认为：按照以场求源的思路,追踪孕震过程,是提高地震预报水平的有效途径。     

Characteristics of the Variation of Cross Fault Short-Baseline and Short-Range Leveling in Western Yunnan Earthquake Test Site Before Lijiang M_S7.0 Earthquake

Results of analysis of variation of cross fault short-baseline and short-range leveling in Western Yunnan Earthquake Test Site (WYETS), results show that among five observation stations of cross fault short-baseline and short-range leveling in WYETS before the Lijiang MS7.0 Earthquake occurred in February 1996 only Yongsheng observation station (epicentral distance 82 km) located at Chenghai fault shows great variation about one year before the earthquake. And the nearest observation station, Lijiang (epicentral distance 42 km); presents great coseismic variation, but does not show obvious anomalous variation before the earthquake. There are no significant variations related to the earthquake at the other three observation stations. Two methods are used in analysis of the observed data and some valuable results have been obtained.     

Burst strain disturbance—A new test study on fracture precursor

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含硬包体试样在破裂孕育过程中波速场的变化

含硬包体混凝土试样在底面支撑侧面双轴加压至主破裂的情况下波速场的变化图象为：加压初期,试样上的纵波平均速度在４１７５～４６１５ｍ／ｓ之间变化,随着压力升高,出现小于４１７５ｍ／ｓ的低速区,但范围甚小,位置在两个包体之间。随后出现大于４６１５ｍ／ｓ的高速区,范围大致与包体位置一致。随着σ１的增加,低速区在逐渐变大,高速区逐步减小后又重新变大,高速区与低速区在平面上相互重叠,在空间上看,高速区被低速区包围着。临近主破裂时,低速区变小并逐步形成条带,高速区也变小,主要集中在靠近未来出现破裂的一个包体位置上。最终的破裂面出现在此高速区与低速条带交界附近,包体也局部破裂了。     

前兆异常识别的χ~2统计检验法及其应用

阐述了采用一定时间域前兆观测值的样本分布与其背景分布形式显著性的2 统计检验法识别前兆异常的思路 ,利用云南地区 1 994～ 1 996年的部分台站的水氡观测资料 ,采用上述方法提取了前兆异常 ,并与地震的实际发生情况进行了对比 ,表明强震前震源区附近水氡具有明显的前兆异常。由于分布形式的显著性检验法对异常反映较一般方法敏感 ,并且可以不受具体的分布形式的限制 ,因此本方法在地震前兆异常识别中将发挥一定的作用     

Lithospheric Geothermal Structure in Yunnan, China

In this paper,the characteristics of the lateral variations of the deep heat flow and Hthospheric geotemperature distribution in Yunnan have been studied,and the lithospheric geothermal structure has been divided into three types,i.e.the geothermal structure in the typical modern tectonically active region,transitional geological region and stable geological region.Finally,the relationship between the geotherm and seismicitv has been discussed.     

MESO-α-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER CHINA DURING 1995

There were 102 meso-α-scale convective systems(MαCSs)generated over China and theneighboring sea during June—August 1995.Those MαCSs were concentrated in three major areas:the west of South China,Sichuan Basin,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang andthe Huanghe River Basin.Six cases of MαCS in different regions are given to show the variety ofthe MαCS genesis and development by the distributions of their cold-cloud-shield black bodytemperature.     

一次渤海气旋发生的初步分析

一九七五年五月四日晨开始,在河北省东部、渤海海面、辽东半岛、山东半岛、黄海北部海面先后出现9—10级西北大风。掖县、羊角沟、招远、海阳、蓬莱等地区阵风达12级,并伴有阵性降雨过程。由于风的来势很猛,使沿海部分地区的人民生命财产受到了一定程度的损失。     

宁夏盛夏大雨和暴雨时的气流分析

一个地方降水量的大小取决于潮湿空气的向上输送。气层的湿度大,上升速度大,降水强度就大,反之降水强度小。在作暴雨预报吋,除注意大形势的特点和几种天气系统与大雨和暴雨的关系外,还需要从引起降水的水汽垂直输送条件去考虑。去年我们同兄弟省(区)协作搞的高原低气压系统的研究中,也发现当高原有低气压系统移出并引起本区     

广西天气分析

广西地处祖国南疆,属低纬地区,山丘起伏,地形复杂,天气多变,每年都有不同程度的灾害,给发展农业生产带来不利的影响。在“农业学大寨”、“工业学大庆”的运动中,我们在自治区党委的领导下,进一步明确了气候为农业服务的方向,天气预报为灾害性天气和农事活动关键性天气为主攻方向,开展气象科研,大搞业务基本建设,对广西的主要灾