Environmental Factors Contributing to the Development and Demise of a Toxic Dinoflagellate (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Karlodinium veneficum</Emphasis>) Bloom in a Shallow,Eutrophic, Lagoonal Estuary

A dense bloom of the ichthyotoxic dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum was discovered in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, on 19 October 2006 and was associated with four subsequent fish kills. Microscopic, photopigment, DNA, and toxicological techniques confirmed bloom identity and toxicity. High-resolution spatio-temporal data from ship-board and fixed automated sampling stations provided a unique opportunity to investigate the environmental conditions that initiated, maintained, and terminated the K. veneficum bloom. Bloom initiation and growth were favored by high nutrient availability and reduced dispersal during the period of declining riverine discharge after Tropical Storm Ernesto. K. veneficum out-competed other co-occurring dinoflagellates, perhaps because of the production of karlotoxins that are known to act as grazing deterrents and to facilitate mixotrophic feeding. Once the bloom was established, small-scale hydrodynamic processes, coupled with vertical migration, concentrated cells along a frontal convergence to high densities (>200,000 cells per milliliter). By 26 October 2006, wind mixing and possible nutrient stress disrupted the bloom. Release of cell-bound toxins during the bloom collapse likely accounted for the associated fish kill events where fish were reported as exhibiting typical symptoms of karlotoxin poisoning. The dynamics of this bloom underscore the tight control of harmful algal blooms by meteorological forcing, hydrology, and sediment nutrient input in this shallow lagoonal estuary.     

Ca X line ratios in solar flares

Theoretical Ca X electron temperature sensitive emission line ratios, derived using electron excitation rates interpolated from accurateR-matrix calculations, are presented forR ₁ =I(419.74 )/I(574.02 ,),R ₂ =I(411.65 )/I(574.02 ),R ₃ =I(419.74 )/I(557.75 ), andR ₄ =I(411.65 )/I(557.75 ). A comparison of these with observational data for three solar flares, obtained by the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A slitless spectrograph on boardSkylab, reveals good agreement between theory and observation forR ₁ andR ₃ in one event, which provides limited support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the analysis. However, in the other flares the observed values ofR ₁ –R ₄ are much larger than the theoretical high-temperature limits, which is probably due to blending of the 419.74 line with Civ 419.71 , and 411.65 with possibly Ciii 411.70 .     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Inviscid behaviour of fines-rich pyroclastic flows inferred from experiments on gas-particle mixtures

Experiments were carried out on granular flows generated by instantaneous release of gas-fluidised, bidisperse mixtures and propagating into a horizontal channel. The mixture consists of fine (< 100 μm) and coarse (> 100 μm) particles of same density, with corresponding grain size ratios of ∼ 2 to 9. Initial fluidisation of the mixture destroys the interparticle frictional contacts, and the flow behaviour then depends on the initial bed packing and on the timescale required to re-establish strong frictional contacts. At a fines mass fraction (α) below that of optimal packing (∼ 40%), the initial mixtures consist of a continuous network of coarse particles with fines in interstitial voids. Strong frictional contacts between the coarse particles are probably rapidly re-established and the flows steadily decelerate. Some internal friction reduction appears to occur as α and the grain size ratio increases, possibly due to particle rolling and the lower roughness of internal shear surfaces. Segregation only occurs at large grain size ratio due to dynamical sieving with fines concentrated at the flow base. In contrast, at α above that for optimal packing, the initial mixtures consist of coarse particles embedded in a matrix of fines. Flow velocities and run-outs are similar to that of the monodisperse fine end-member, thus showing that the coarse particles are transported passively within the matrix whatever their amount and grain size are. These flows propagate at constant height and velocity as inviscid fluid gravity currents, thus suggesting negligible interparticle friction. We have determined a Froude number of 2.61 ± 0.08 consistent with the dam-break model for fluid flows, and with no significant variation as a function of α, the grain size ratio, and the initial bed expansion. Very little segregation occurs, which suggests low intensity particle interactions during flow propagation and that active fluidisation is not taking place. Strong frictional contacts are only re-established in the final stages of emplacement and stop the flow motion. We infer that fines-rich (i.e. matrix-supported) pyroclastic flows propagate as inviscid fluid gravity currents for most of their emplacement, and this is consistent with some field data.     

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do southern Appalachian Mountain summer stream temperatures respond to removal of understory rhododendron thickets?

Dense understory thickets of the native evergreen shrub Rhododendron maximum expanded initially following elimination of American chestnut by the chestnut blight, and later in response to loss of the eastern hemlock due to hemlock woolly adelgid invasion. Rhododendron thickets often blanket streams and their riparian zones, creating cool, low-light microclimates. To determine the effect of such understory thickets on summer stream temperatures, we removed riparian rhododendron understory on 300 m reaches of two southern Appalachian Mountain headwater streams, while leaving two 300 m reference reaches undisturbed. Overhead canopy was left intact in all four streams, but all streams were selected to have a significant component of dead or dying eastern hemlock in the overstory, creating time-varying canopy gaps throughout the reach. We continuously monitored temperatures upstream, within and downstream of treatment and reference reaches. Temperatures were monitored in all four streams in the summer before treatments were imposed (2014), and for two summers following treatment (2015, 2016). Temperatures varied significantly across and within streams prior to treatment and across years for the reference streams. After rhododendron removal, increases in summer stream temperatures were observed at some locations within the treatment reaches, but these increases did not persist downstream and varied by watershed, sensor, and year. Significant increases in daily maxima in treatment reaches ranged from 0.9 to 2.6°C. Overhead canopy provided enough shade to prevent rhododendron removal from increasing summer temperatures to levels deleterious to native cold-water fauna (average summer temperatures remained below 16°C), and local temperature effects were not persistent.     

Improved algorithms for generalized finite element simulations of three-dimensional hydraulic fracture propagation

This paper reports improvements to algorithms for the simulation of 3-D hydraulic fracturing with the Generalized Finite Element Method (GFEM). Three optimizations are presented and analyzed. First, an improved initial guess based on solving a 3-D elastic problem with the pressure from the previous step is shown to decrease the number of Newton iterations and increase robustness. Second, an improved methodology to find the time step that leads to fracture propagation is proposed and shown to decrease significantly the number of iterations. Third, reduced computational cost is observed by properly recycling the linear part of the coupled stiffness matrix. Two representative examples are used to analyze these improvements. Additionally, a methodology to include the leak-off term is presented and verified against asymptotic analytical solutions. Conservation of mass is shown to be well satisfied in all examples.