Pyroclast textural variation as an indicator of eruption column steadiness in andesitic Plinian eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu

Hudson is one of the most active volcanoes in the Southern Andes—it had one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century in 1991 (VEI?=?5) and smaller eruptions in 1971 (VEI?=?3), maybe 1973, and 2011 (VEI of 1-2). We use satellite-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and thermal imagery to characterize the activity of Hudson between 2004 and 2011 and during the 2011 eruption. InSAR data show that the volcano inflated between 2004 and 2010 with a maximum change rate of between 2 and 3 cm/yr—about half of the deformation rate observed during a previous deformation episode from 1993–1999. Inversion for an inflating point source suggests magma accumulation beneath the SW part of the caldera at an average depth of 10 km. This inferred source is deeper than both the sources estimated for the magma chamber of the 1991 eruption (from petrology) and for the 1993–1999 deformation event. Also, the deformation from 2004–2010 is centered at a slightly different location and has a smaller volume change than that between 1993–1999—further indicating that there is either a large magma reservoir or several separate ones. While the deformation center is a few km from the eruption location near the caldera rim, the two are possibly linked since the predicted static Coloumb stress changes due to the inferred inflation source would encourage unclamping on potential faults in the caldera rim. We also analize nighttime satellite thermal images from MODIS and ASTER. While MODIS did not show any unambiguous evidence for hot spots, ASTER thermal imagery show that at least four months before the eruption there were locations with temperatures 7–8ºK above background. Lahars observed by helicopter overflights on 4 March 2011 and October 2011 suggest that the hotspots may have been caused by lakes or subglacial melting. There is no InSAR data available for the months immediately preceding the eruption, but the ASTER thermal imagery results may indicate an increase in geothermal activity that could have been used to forecast the eruption.     

Airborne microphysical measurements and radar reflectivity observations near a cold frontal rainband observed during the FRONTS 87 experiment

Airborne microphysical measurements and ground-based radar-reflectivity observations, collected at the near of a narrow cold frontal rainband during the FRONTS 87 experiment, are used to infer some characteristics of the precipitation: size-distribution, liquid or ice-water content, mass-weighted fallspeed, radar-reflectivity and relationships between pairs of these quantities. In the ice phase region, two different methods are proposed to calculate the radar reflectivity from the aircraft data. The influence of the choice of the ice particle type on the calculated quantities is discussed from the results of the first method. The second method is new: it is based upon the use of a roughness parameter estimated from the analysis of the two-dimensional particle images of ice precipitation. Although this method is tentative, it gives conclusive results for the two different flight levels studied here.     

Bayesian logistic regression for presence-only data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which a censoring mechanism acts on a binary response which can be partially observed only with respect to one outcome, usually denoting the presence of an attribute of interest. A typical example is the recording of species presence in ecological surveys. In this work a Bayesian approach to the analysis of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme is presented. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to censoring and the other one due to sampling. In the paper, through the use of a stratified sampling design with non-overlapping strata, a new formulation of the logistic model for presence-only data is proposed. In particular, the logistic regression with linear predictor is considered. Estimation is carried out with a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation, which does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. The performance of the new algorithm is validated by means of extensive simulation experiments using three scenarios and comparison with optimal benchmarks. An application to data existing in literature is reported in order to discuss the model behaviour in real world situations together with the results of an original study on termites occurrences data.     

Optimization of photovoltaic solar power plant locations in northern Chile

The optimization of photovoltaic solar power plants location in Atacama Desert, Chile, is presented in this study. The study considers three objectives: (1) Find sites with the highest solar energy potential, (2) determine sites with the least impact on the environment, and (3) locate the areas which produce small social impact. To solve this task, multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDAs) such as analytical hierarchy process and ordered weighted averaging were applied in a GIS environment. In addition, survey results of social impacts were analyzed and included into the decision-making process, including landscape values. The most suitable sites for solar energy projects were found near roads and power lines throughout the study area. Large suitable areas were found also from central valley from Arica and Parinacota to the north edge of Atacama region. In Atacama region, most suitable sites were found in the Andes. On the contrary, Andes were also found to have high environmental values and scenically valuable landscapes. Moderate and low suitability were found on the coast, especially in Atacama region. Factors such as slope and distance to power lines and roads influenced largely the sensitivity analysis. Area of high suitability increased by 15% when distance to roads was excluded and 18% when distance to power lines or slope was removed. MCDA-GIS method was found to be useful and applicable to the optimization of solar power plant locations in northern Chile.     

Mechanical Behavior of Clayey Soil Reinforced with Recycled Tire Rubber Using Chips and Fibers

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The volume of discarded tires continues to increase each year, becoming a major topic of concern for society. Motivated by this environmental issue, this...     

Freshening of near-bottom waters in Lake Baikal triggered by the Mw6.2 Kultuk earthquake of August 2008

In September 2008, freshening of near-bottom water and an increase in concentration of suspended particles were observed in the western part of southern Lake Baikal. The reduction in the content of total dissolved solids was about 0.4–0.7?mg/kg (0.7?%), and average suspended particle concentration increased strongly to 6–9?mg/l, the background value being 0.2?mg/l. The spatial distribution of these waters was virtually identical to the focal area of the M_w6.2 Kultuk earthquake that occurred on 27 August 2008. It is suggested that there was a causal relationship between these two phenomena. Freshening of a significant amount (about 20?km³) of near-bottom waters was plausibly caused by an input of poorly mineralized pore waters from bottom sediments as a result of dissociation of methane gas hydrates suspected to occur in the area. The energy radiated by the earthquake source was four orders of magnitude smaller than that needed to explain the observed freshening of near-bottom waters. This points to other mechanisms leading to seismic-induced sediment failure and possible subsequent hydrate dissociation in the case of the Kultuk earthquake.     

Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources

The current study presents an assessment of the impact of climate change on water yield, one of the main hydrological ecosystem services, in northern Patagonia. The outputs of regional climate models from the CORDEX Project for South America were used to drive the InVEST water yield model. CORDEX regional climate models project for the far future (2071–2100) an increase in temperature higher than 1.5 °C and a precipitation decrease ranging from − 10 to − 30% for the study area. The projected warmer and dryer climate emerges as a robust signal based on model agreement and on consistent physical drivers of these changes. Moreover, both the projected increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in precipitation contribute to a strong decrease in water yield of around − 20 to − 40% in the headwaters of northern Patagonian watersheds. Comparison of the results in the two basins reveals that the land cover may be considered a buffer of water yield changes and highlights the key role of protected areas in reducing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change.     

Evidence for coelacanths in the Late Triassic (Rhaetian) of England

The right gular plate of an indeterminate coelacanth from the Westbury Formation (Upper Triassic, Rhaetian) of Blue Anchor Point, Somerset, southwest England is reported. This occurrence represents the first convincing evidence of coelacanths from the Triassic of the United Kingdom. The new specimen suggests a fish of approximately 0.61 m length.     

Specific profiles of polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in fish and tucuxi dolphins from the estuary of Paraíba do Sul River, Southeastern Brazil

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are ubiquitous pollutants in the environment and subject of several studies due to their adverse effects as endocrine disruptors. Despite the concern over widespread distribution of PBDEs even in sparsely populated regions of the world, few studies have reported their occurrence in Brazil. In this study, PBDEs and PCBs levels were measured in selected fish species and dolphins from Paraiba do Sul River, Brazil. BDE 47 and 85 were the predominant congeners. Low chlorinated congeners showed the highest concentrations in fish; however dolphins presented the highest proportion of PCBs 153, followed by 138 and 180. The daily intake of PBDEs and PCBs was estimated for the population of this region. PCB daily intake through consumption of croaker was above the limits set by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, raising great concern over the existence of a source of PCB contamination in Brazil.