Scenario prediction of changes in water balance components of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers in the context of possible climate change in the region of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Forecasts of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The forecasts have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model of heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.     

The application of the land surface model for calculating river runoff in high latitudes

The potentialities of the land surface model as applied to the calculation of river runoff in high latitudes were examined. Three approaches were used to specify input data based on meteorological data and land surface parameters. A method was developed for automated optimization of some model parameters by using direct search of minimum of root-mean-square deviation between the calculated and measured streamflow values. The global data sets are shown to be applicable in principle for hydrological calculations.     

Possible Climate Change Impact on River Runoff in the Different Regions of the Globe

The possibility ofassessing changes in river runofftill 2100 for a number oflarge river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise.