Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues,it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain.Therefore,the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative.Adaptive state estimator(ASE)is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique,thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters.The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and/or random switching of input and measurement biases.The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE,which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10%in 2-dimensional problems.Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios.Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor,Recursive Least Square Estimator(RLSE)due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes.ASE's inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE,resulting from the complexity of algorithm,was also noticed.The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

Quaternary fossil coral communities in uplifted strata along the Balochistan coast of Pakistan: understanding modern coral decline in the Arabian Sea

Uplifted reefs due to being important palaeoclimate archives and a rich source of information on past physical and geochemical changes globally have become the centre of marine research. The uplifted fossil Quaternary coral communities of Jiwani and Gwadar are perfect places to study the palaeoclimatic and geological changes that have shaped the Balochistan coast. Studies on the palaeodiversity of corals along the Makran coast of Pakistan are lacking. In the present study, the samples collected using line intercept method from four uplifted sites (Balochistan coast: one at Gwadar and three at Jiwani) were analysed. The relative distribution and diversity of scleractinian fossil corals was determined, and the factors responsible for coral decline along Pakistan coast were compared with modern coral distribution and diversity. A total of 48 fossil coral species were recorded in nine families and 22 genera. High coral diversity was recorded in the uplifted landward sites of Jiwani and Gwadar headland. Terraces close to the shore at Jiwani had lower diversity. The corals seem to be Quaternary: most likely Pleistocene to Holocene. The modern fauna lacks many species recorded in the fossil community, thus suggesting a faunal turnover in diversity and redistribution of coral fauna which may be linked with past geological events and increasing anthropogenic pressure.     

利用GIS定量评价太湖流域的非点源污染

利用流域地图和地理信息系统(Arcview)软件评估的不同土地利用状况下的基本污染负荷,以太湖流域的子流域——锡山流域为例定量评价了流域的非点源污染. 本文包括根据流域面积和污染物平均浓度模拟流域污染负荷,进而在设施流域最优管理措施的情况下评价非点源污染. 最优管理措施提供最有效的、最实用、最大成本效益的步骤减少流域的非点源污染. 结合流域边界和土地利用资料、营养物的平均浓度、及点源负荷资料,利用WATERSHEDS 3.0 软件的扩展的PLOAD GIS模型评价了非点源污染,并利用表格和图形对模型的模拟结果进行了评估.     

Calibration of local magnitude scale for Hindukush continental subduction zone

Hindukush is an active subduction zone where at least one earthquake occurs on daily basis. For seismic hazard studies, it is important to develop a local magnitude scale using the data of local seismic network. We have computed local magnitude scale for Hindukush earthquakes using data from local network belonging to Center for Earthquake Studies (CES) for a period of three years, i.e. 2015–2017. A total of 26,365 seismic records pertaining to 2,683 earthquakes with magnitude 2.0 and greater, was used with hypocentral distance less than 600 km. Magnitude scale developed by using this data comes to be M_L = logA + 0.929logr + 0.00298r – 1.84. The magnitude determined through formulated relation was compared with that of standard relation for Southern California and relation developed by the same authors for local network for Northern Punjab. It was observed that Hindukush region has high attenuation as compared to that of Southern California and Northern Punjab which implies that Hindukush is tectonically more disturbed as compared to the said regions, hence, seismically more active as well. We have calculated station correction factors for our network. Station correction factors do not show any pattern which probably owes to the geological and tectonic complexity of this structure. Standard deviation and variance of magnitude residuals for CES network determined using Hutton and Boore scale and scale developed in this study were compared, it showed that a variance reduction of 44.1% was achieved. Average of magnitude residuals for different distance ranges was almost zero which showed that our magnitude scale was stable for all distances up to 600 km. Newly developed magnitude scale will help in homogenization of earthquake catalog. It has been observed that b-value of CES catalog decreases when magnitude is calculated by using newly developed magnitude scale.     

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins,China

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)^?1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)^?1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)^?1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.     

Surface recovery of landslides triggered by 2008 <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ms</Emphasis>8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (China): a case study in a typical mountainous watershed

The Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in southwestern China and triggered numerous landslides is one of the stronger ones in the steep eastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau. The surfaces of these landslides have recovered gradually with vegetation, which provide useful information about the evolution of geologic environment as well as the long-term assessment of landslides after earthquake. The Mianyuanhe watershed shows many co-seismic landslides. The active fault passing through its center is selected as a study area aiming to analyze the annual surface recovery rate (SRR) of landslides by interpretation of remote-sensing images in five periods from 2008 to 2013. The results are here described. (1) Although a large amount of loose deposits were transformed into debris flows, the surfaces of the landslides recovered rapidly with vegetation and almost no landslides occurred at new sites after the Wenchuan earthquake. In the year 2008, the exposed surface projected area (ESPA) of the landslides showed a total area of 56.3 km² and covered 28.9 % of the study area, which was reduced rapidly to 19.1 % in 2011 and 15.8 % in 2013. (2) The study area was divided into four geologic units, including clastic rocks, melange zone, carbonate rocks, and magmatic rocks. Smaller ESPAs and higher SRRs were found in the former two units versus the latter ones. (3) A single large landslide shows an SRR lower than a group of smaller ones having an equal total surface, while the SRRs of debris flows are lower than those of rockfalls and landslides. (4) The vegetation cover would return to the pre-earthquake level in 2020 approximately, which indicates that the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on landslides and debris-flows activities would cease almost completely.     

Using fluorescein and bromide tracers to investigate the role of baseflow in a small suburban watershed in Iowa,USA

Fluorescein and bromide tracers were used to study baseflow mechanisms of a small suburban watershed in northeast Iowa, USA. The tracers were applied to ten injection holes ranging from 1.3 to 3.0 ft in depth in two phases. Separately, two PVC wells (15 and 16 ft deep) were used to investigate tracer movement in a deeper flow system. Over 30 days of phase 1, none of the tracers was detected in the creek water. In phase 2, fluorescein was irregularly detected in the creek at two sites, whereas bromide was detected at one site only. Meanwhile, soil analysis detected measurable diffusion of bromide and fluorescein at four sites. At each of these sites, the tracer was found to be diffusing toward the creek. None of the tracers applied to the deeper PVC wells showed any movement toward the creek over 1 month of continuous sampling. Isotopic composition of water samples varied spatially as well as temporally going from the deep well (δ¹⁸O = ?8.89‰) to the injection holes (average δ¹⁸O = ?8.42‰), to the creek (average δ¹⁸O = ?7.86‰), and further to the rain samples (average δ¹⁸O = ?4.68‰). The analytical error margin is ±0.09‰. Samples from the injection holes were generally heavier than the deep well sample and lighter than the creek samples, indicating that there was no significant connection between the surface and the subsurface systems. Furthermore, the sporadic appearance of bromide and fluorescein both spatially and temporally points to the fact that baseflow does not constitute a significant part of the area's stream discharge. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discovery of antler from a new site in the Pinjor Formation (Pleistocene) of Pakistan

Partially complete right antler from the Pinjor Formation (Pleistocene) of the Upper Siwalik Subgroup is identified, described and its phylogenetic relationship is discussed. The fossil antler is compared with other known fossil records of family Cervidae as well as with the extant species, on the basis of which it can be attributed to Axis punjabiensis. This species has not been reported previously from this fossil site.