尼泊尔及南侧邻区元古宙以来的构造-沉积演化

迄今,尼泊尔及其南侧邻区元古宙以来的构造-沉积演化尚缺乏系统性研究.为了促进区域地质认识,结合前人研究成果及新的研究发现,对尼泊尔低喜马拉雅带及以南的构造-沉积演化首次进行系统性总结与讨论.结果表明:尼泊尔低喜马拉雅带及以南与印度地盾北缘在地质历史中的构造-沉积演化息息相关,且自元古宙以来,发育了被动大陆边缘→陆内裂谷→被动大陆边缘→前陆盆地等不同构造演化阶段的沉积响应;尼泊尔西部的Dailekh群属于~1.8 Ga以前或前哥伦比亚超大陆之前的被动大陆边缘沉积;Vindhyan超群为下断上坳的陆内裂谷沉积,尼泊尔境内的Lakharpata群相当于下Vindhyan群;Gondwana超大陆裂解导致由北往南形成一系列初始发育时间越来越晚的裂谷盆地;Surkhet群至Siwalik群为被动大陆边缘至前陆盆地沉积,其中,Surkhet群Swat/Subathu组是喜马拉雅南侧地质历史上最后一套海相沉积地层,也是被动大陆边缘向前陆盆地转换期的沉积响应;Siwalik群大规模的磨拉石建造标志着喜马拉雅快速和大幅度隆升,该群沉积成岩后,印度-欧亚板块进一步的挤压作用导致了地质历史上迄今为止最后一次强烈的构造运动,形成MFT与Siwalik褶皱带,并奠定了喜马拉雅带现今构造格局.      

Integrating cellular automata and Markov techniques to generate urban development potential surface: a study on Kolkata agglomeration

Uncontrolled, yet fragmented peripheral urban expansion has emerged as a menace to urban development. To cope with this rapid urban expansion process, identification of the forces responsible for this rapid urban expansion is a pre-requisite, especially when its threats to habitability are taken into consideration. This study tries to evaluate fragmented uncontrolled urban expansion faced by Kolkata using cellular automata-Markov chain. Urban growth patterns, land use/land cover transformations and spatial allocation correspondence with planning strategy is the main theme of this study. Depending upon the driving forces, the study result indicates a bi-directional urban development potential surface, which might be a result of the biased planning initiative along with middle-class residential demand. This simulation result provides evidence for the planning authority to evaluate the effectiveness of spatial allocation and urban expansion trends and provide flexibility to modify the current allocation scenario.     

A longitudinal study of malaria associated with deforestation in Sonitpur district of Assam,India

Assam–Arunachal forest fringed foothill area is endemic for malaria incidence. The present study deals with the temporal analysis of malaria incidence and determines its association with deforestation in 24 villages along the Assam–Arunachal forest fringed foothill area of Sonitpur district of Assam. Malaria epidemiological survey has been carried out in the study area from the year 1994 to 2005. Remote sensing (RS) technique has been used to map the areas of forest changes from the year 2000 to 2005. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to map the malaria incidence and forest cover. The study villages are endemic to malaria infections and there was increasing trend of malaria incidence over the years. The slide positivity rate (SPR) ranged from 5.1% in 1997 to 44.4% in 2005. The percentage forest cover decreased significantly from 23.6% during 2000 to 15.4% during 2005, whereas SPR was increased during 2000–2005. The present study is the first attempt to understand the role of deforestation in malaria incidence using RS and GIS in the north-eastern region of India at a micro-geographic level. The study suggests that the area is endemic to malaria transmission. The decrease in forest cover is a serious ecological concern besides its role in elevating the malaria incidence in the study area.     

A Case Study: Heavy Rainfall Event Comparison Between Daily Satellite Rainfall Estimation Products with IMD Gridded Rainfall Over Peninsular India During 2015 Winter Monsoon

India Meteorological department (IMD) used INSAT-3D Metrological Satellite Imager data to drive two type rainfall estimation products viz-Hydro Estimate (HE) and INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) on half hourly rainfall rate and daily accumulated rainfall in millimeter (mm). Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) product is being derived by NASA and JAXA by using Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellites data. IMSRA and GPM (IMERG) are gridded data at 10 km spatial resolution and HE is available at pixel level (4 km at Nadir). IMD provides gridded rainfall data at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution which is based on wide coverage of 6955 actual observation. In present study, validation of INSAT-3D based Hydro Estimator (HE), INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) and Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellites are carried out with IMD gridded data set for heavy rainfall event during winter monsoon, over peninsular India (November–December 2015). In validation, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE), RMSE, Correlation, Skilled scores are calculated at grid level for heavy and very heavy rain categories and the values of NSE of HE (? 32.36, ? 3.12), GPM (? 68.67, ? 2.39) and IMSRA (? 0.02, 0.28) on 16th November 2015 and HE (? 13.65, ? 1.69), GPM (? 43.79, ? 2.94) and IMSRA (? 1.08, ? 1.60) on 2nd Dec 2015, for heavy and very heavy rainfall. On both days, HE is showing better rainfall estimate compare to GPM for Heavy rainfall and GPM showing better estimation for very heavy rainfall events. In all the cases IMSRA is underestimating, if daily rain fall exceeded 75 mm.     

Fog forecasting using rule-based fuzzy inference system

Operational meteorology is perceived as a fuzzy environment in which information is vaguely defined. The mesoscale processes such as fog, stratus and convection are generally dependent on the topography of the place and has always been difficult to forecast for the meteorologists. The main objective of the present study is to introduce the concept of fuzzy inference system (FIS) in the prediction of fog. This approach uses the concept of a pure fuzzy logic system where the fuzzy rule base consists of a collection of fuzzy IF-THEN rules. The fuzzy inference engine uses these fuzzy IF-THEN rules to determine a mapping from fuzzy sets in the input universe of discourse to fuzzy sets in the output universe of discourse based on fuzzy logic principles. Basic weather elements, which affect weather characteristics of fog, are fuzzified. These are then used in fuzzy weather prediction models based on fuzzy inferences. These models are simulated and the crisp results obtained using developed defuzzification strategies are compared with the actual weather data. The basis of methodology is to construct the fuzzy rule base domain from the available daily current weather observations in winter season over New Delhi. The results reveal that dew point spread and rate of change of dew point spread are the most important parameters for the formation of fog. The results further indicate that fog formation over New Delhi are dominant when (i) dew point is greater then 7°C along with dew point spread between 1 and 3°C. (ii) rate of change of dew point spread must be negative and wind speed should be less than 4 knots. This study presents a technique for predicting the probability of fog over New Delhi for 5–6 hours in advance. The skill score indicates that the performance of FIS is appreciably good. The method is found to be promising for operational application.     

Application of DEM,Remote Sensing and Geomorphic Studies in Identifying a Recent [or perhaps Neogene?] Upwarp in the Dibru River Basin,Assam, India

The Dibru river basin of Assam is investigated to examine the influence of active structure by applying an integrated study on geomorphology, morphotectonics, subsurface structure, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using topographic map, IRS 1D LISS III, IRS P6 LISS III, SRTM, seismic and subsurface data. Seismic data reveals existence of an upwarp and an important fault in the basement around the central and eastern parts of the Dibru basin, respectively. The influence of these structures is well observed on all the younger formations inferring their active nature possibly till the Recent Period. Existence of fluvial anomalies, viz. annular drainage pattern, lineaments, abrupt changes in the direction of river course, beheaded stream and valley incision infer role of structural control on the fluvial features of this basin. Most commonly used indices for morphotectonic analysis, viz. basin elongation ratio (Re), transverse topographic symmetry (T), asymmetric factor (AF), valley floor width to valley height ratio (Vf) have been used to identify the evidences of active structures in the area. The values of Re indicated tectonically active, T indicated an asymmetric nature, AF indicated tilting and Vf indicated active incision in the Dibru basin. The DEM, profiles across the valley and superimposed longitudinal profiles of incised channel bed and valley shoulder of the Dibru clearly reveal valley incision by the river. Three large paleochannels located in different parts of the basin had their headwaters towards east at the common source, i.e. the Diyun river. These paleochannels had been resulted when their headwaters avulsed to create new rivers due to affect of the subsurface structures during Recent (or perhaps Neogene?) Period.     

Impact of Planetary Wave Reflection on Tropospheric Blocking over the Urals–Siberia Region in January 2008

Planetary wave reflection from the stratosphere played a significant role in changing the tropospheric circulation pattern over Eurasia in mid-January 2008. We studied the 2008 event and compared with composite analysis(winters of 2002/2003,2004/2005, 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012), when the downward coupling was stronger, by employing time-lagged singular value decomposition analysis on the geopotential height field. In the Northern Hemisphere, the geopotential fields were decomposed into zonal mean and wave components to compare the relative covariance patterns. It was found that the wavenumber 1(WN1) component was dominant compared with the wavenumber 2(WN2) component and zonal mean process. For the WN1 field, the covariance was much higher(lower) for the negative(positive) lag, with a prominent peak around +15 days when the leading stratosphere coupled strongly with the troposphere. It contributed to the downward coupling due to reflection, when the stratosphere exhibited a partially reflective background state. We also analyzed the evolution of the WN1 anomaly and heat flux anomaly, both in the troposphere and stratosphere, during January–March 2008. The amplitude of the tropospheric WN1 pattern reached a maximum and was consistent with a downward wave coupling event influenced by the stratospheric WN1 anomaly at 10 h Pa. This was consistent with the reflection of the WN1 component over Eurasia, which triggered an anomalous blocking high in the Urals–Siberia region. We further clarified the impact of reflection on the tropospheric WN1 field and hence the tropospheric circulation pattern by changing the propagation direction during and after the event.     

Detection of seismic reflections from seismic attributes through fractal analysis

The concept of fractals is used here for the identification of seismic reflectors with special emphasis on thin‐bed delineation, which is generally overlooked during standard data processing. A new fractal analysis scheme is applied to both synthetic and real field seismic data. The fractal dimensions of the three seismic attributes – amplitude, phase, and instantaneous frequency – have been analysed and evaluated. A change in fractal dimension is found to occur whenever there is a reflection. However, the resolution in the delineation of reflectors varies, depending on the attribute under consideration and the method of fractal dimension estimation used. Fractal analysis is performed on both noise‐free and noisy synthetic data to establish the noise tolerance limit for both the ‘divider method’ and the ‘Hurst method’. It is then tested with different peak frequencies of the source wavelet to establish the criteria for using the divider method and the Hurst method. The divider method is found to be suitable for high peak frequency source wavelets (> 25 Hz), while the Hurst method is best suited for low peak frequency source wavelets (< 25 Hz). Finally, when applied to the digitally processed and migrated field seismic data, it could even delineate reflectors which otherwise went undetected on the migrated time section.     

Ground-motion predictions in Shillong region, northeast India

We deliver ground-motion prediction equations for Shillong region, northeast India, based on a database generated by finite-fault stochastic simulations. An examination of the regional seismic source characteristics is carried out beforehand. Micro/minor earthquakes (M _W?<?5.0) nucleating at hypocentral depth <21?km in the region recorded at broadband seismic stations are observed to have Brune stress-drop ranging between 2.8 and 99.9?bars. Likewise, macroseismic intensity data for the 1897 Shillong Earthquake that nucleated at a hypocentral depth of ~35?km places the associated stress-drop at 100?200?bars. The apparent variation of the stress-drop parameter with depth is considered with two source zones namely lower-crust and upper-crust. Equations for the lower-crust predict higher ground-motion levels and exhibit affinity to those developed for stable continental region of Eastern North America. The ground-motion levels predicted by the equations for the upper-crust are relatively lower but are still higher compared with those predicted for tectonically active regions, viz., the Himalayas and Western North America.