Integrating cellular automata and Markov techniques to generate urban development potential surface: a study on Kolkata agglomeration

Uncontrolled, yet fragmented peripheral urban expansion has emerged as a menace to urban development. To cope with this rapid urban expansion process, identification of the forces responsible for this rapid urban expansion is a pre-requisite, especially when its threats to habitability are taken into consideration. This study tries to evaluate fragmented uncontrolled urban expansion faced by Kolkata using cellular automata-Markov chain. Urban growth patterns, land use/land cover transformations and spatial allocation correspondence with planning strategy is the main theme of this study. Depending upon the driving forces, the study result indicates a bi-directional urban development potential surface, which might be a result of the biased planning initiative along with middle-class residential demand. This simulation result provides evidence for the planning authority to evaluate the effectiveness of spatial allocation and urban expansion trends and provide flexibility to modify the current allocation scenario.     

Application of DEM,Remote Sensing and Geomorphic Studies in Identifying a Recent [or perhaps Neogene?] Upwarp in the Dibru River Basin,Assam, India

The Dibru river basin of Assam is investigated to examine the influence of active structure by applying an integrated study on geomorphology, morphotectonics, subsurface structure, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using topographic map, IRS 1D LISS III, IRS P6 LISS III, SRTM, seismic and subsurface data. Seismic data reveals existence of an upwarp and an important fault in the basement around the central and eastern parts of the Dibru basin, respectively. The influence of these structures is well observed on all the younger formations inferring their active nature possibly till the Recent Period. Existence of fluvial anomalies, viz. annular drainage pattern, lineaments, abrupt changes in the direction of river course, beheaded stream and valley incision infer role of structural control on the fluvial features of this basin. Most commonly used indices for morphotectonic analysis, viz. basin elongation ratio (Re), transverse topographic symmetry (T), asymmetric factor (AF), valley floor width to valley height ratio (Vf) have been used to identify the evidences of active structures in the area. The values of Re indicated tectonically active, T indicated an asymmetric nature, AF indicated tilting and Vf indicated active incision in the Dibru basin. The DEM, profiles across the valley and superimposed longitudinal profiles of incised channel bed and valley shoulder of the Dibru clearly reveal valley incision by the river. Three large paleochannels located in different parts of the basin had their headwaters towards east at the common source, i.e. the Diyun river. These paleochannels had been resulted when their headwaters avulsed to create new rivers due to affect of the subsurface structures during Recent (or perhaps Neogene?) Period.     

Discovery of animal eggs and embryos from the Ediacaran (Terminal Proterozoic) Chambaghat Formation,Krol Group,Himachal Lesser Himalaya

The globular to suboval microfossils with distinctively ornamented outer coverings interpreted as animal eggs and embryos have been discovered from the black phosphatic chert lentils of the Ediacaran (Terminal Proterozoic) Chambaghat Formation (Krol sandstone), Krol Group, Himachal Lesser Himalaya, India. Similar animal eggs and embryos have earlier been recorded only from the phosphorites of the uppermost Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation (Ca. 570±20 Ma) exposed at Weng’an, South China. Present record of eggs and embryos is comparable with extant eggs and embryos of cnidarians and bilaterians like molluscs, annelids and arthropods. The eggs and embryos from the Terminal Proterozoic rocks of India are the only one recorded from the equivalent stratigraphic horizon outside China. This discovery of eggs and embryos adds to the understanding the evolutionary trends in the Proterozoic metazoan life.     

Shoreline Change Analysis at Chilika Lagoon Coast,India Using Digital Shoreline Analysis System

Shoreline is the dynamic interfaces of both terrestrial and marine environment, which constantly affected by natural coastal processes includes wave, tide, littoral drift and cyclonic storms as well as coastal development. Wave induced littoral drift and fluvial discharge causing the gradual inlet migration and has the concurrent impact on shoreline of Chilika lagoon. This study is to determine the long-term shoreline changes along the coast of Chilika lagoon. Historical satellite images were used to analyse the shoreline erosion and accretion based on statistical approach. The satellite data from 1975 to 2015 were processed by using ERDAS Imagine and the shorelines are extracted. The shoreline oscillation was analysed at an interval of 100 m along the coast of Chilika lagoon using DSAS software. Most commonly used statistical methods such as end point rate and linear regression rate are used. The shoreline change analysis for entire coast of the lagoon since 40 years (1975–2015) indicates that 62% is of accretion, 25% is under stable coast and erosion is 13%. The result reveals that the lagoon coast shows high accretion of 9.12 m/year at updrift side of the lagoon inlet whereas the downdrift side shows high erosion of ??10.73 m/year due to the wave induced northeasterly longshore sediment transport round the year and riverine discharge. This study would provide the potential erosion and accretion area at Chilika lagoon coast and would help in adaptive shoreline management plan.     

Evaluation of performance of non‐invasive upgrade strategy for beam–column sub‐assemblages of poorly designed structures under seismic type loading

Beam–column sub‐assemblages are the one of the most vulnerable structural elements to the seismic loading and may lead to devastating consequences. In order to improve the performance of the poorly/under‐designed building structures to the critical loading scenarios, introduction of steel bracing at the RC beam–column joint is found to be one of the modern and implementable techniques. In the present work, a diagonal metallic single haunch/bracing system is introduced at the beam–column joints to provide an alternate load path and to protect the joint zone from extensive damage because of brittle shear failure. In this paper, an investigation is reported on the evaluation of tae influence of different parameters, such as angle of inclination, location of bracing and axial stiffness of the single steel bracing on improving the performance through altering the force transfer mechanism. Numerical investigations on the performance of the beam–column sub‐assemblages have been carried out under cyclic loading using non‐linear finite element analysis. Experimentally validated numerical models (both GLD and upgraded specimen) have been further used for evaluating the performance of various upgrade schemes. Cyclic behaviour of reinforcement, concrete modelling based on fracture energy, bond‐slip relations between concrete and steel reinforcement have been incorporated. The study also includes the numerical investigation of crack and failure patterns, ultimate load carrying capacity, load displacement hysteresis, energy dissipation and ductility. The findings of the present study would be helpful to the engineers to develop suitable, feasible and efficient upgrade schemes for poorly designed structures under seismic loading. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First Order Seismic Microzonation of Delhi,India Using Geographic Information System (GIS)

A first order seismic microzonation map of Delhi is prepared using five thematic layers viz., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) contour, different soil types at 6 m depth, geology, groundwater fluctuation and bedrock depth, integrated on GIS platform. The integration is performed following a pair-wise comparison of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), wherein each thematic map is assigned weight in the 5-1 scale: depending on its contribution towards the seismic hazard. Following the AHP, the weightage assigned to each theme are: PGA (0.333), soil (0.266), geology (0.20), groundwater (0.133) and bedrock depth (0.066). The thematic vector layers are overlaid and integrated using GIS. On the microzonation theme, the Delhi region has been classified into four broad zones of vulnerability to the seismic hazard. They are very high (> 52%), high (38–52%), moderate (23–38%) and less ( < 23%) zones of seismic hazard. The “very high” seismic hazard zone is observed where the maximum PGA varies from 140 to 210 gal for a finite source model of M_w 8.5 in the central seismic gap. A site amplification study from local and regional earthquakes for Delhi region using Delhi Telemetry Network data shows a steeper site response gradient in the eastern side of the Yamuna fluvial deposits at 1.5 Hz. The ‘high’ seismic hazard zone occupies most of the study area where the PGA value ranges from 90 to 140 gal. The ‘moderate’ seismic hazard zone occurs on either side of the Delhi ridge with PGA value varying from 60 to 90 gal. The ‘less’ seismic hazard zone occurs in small patches distributed along the study area with the PGA value less than 60 gal. Site response studies, PGA distribution and destruction pattern of the Chamoli earthquake greatly corroborate the seismic hazard zones estimated through microzonation on GIS platform and also establishes the methodology incorporated in this study.     

Prioritization of soil conservation measures using erodibility indices as criteria in Sikkim (India)

Erodibility indices are important parameter that can be used to describe the intensity of the soil erosion problems causing environmental concerns. These indices are convenient to estimate the susceptibility to erosion where physical measurement is very difficult. Sikkim is one such state in India where measuring erosion is a tedious process due to its difficult and inaccessible terrain conditions. In the present study, spatial variation of susceptibility of erosion in East district of Sikkim was estimated by using indices such as clay ratio, dispersion ratio, mod clay ratio and critical level of soil organic matter. The result indicates soils in East district are mostly dominated by sand particles (40.5–81.06%) in majority of soil samples. The dispersion ratio values in most of the soils were >15% indicating very high vulnerability to erosion. The values of clay ratio (3.44–9), modified clay ratio (mean value of 6.9) and critical level of soil organic matter content (<5%) indicated high susceptibility to erosion. The trends of indices were generated by IDW interpolation method to understand the spatial variation of the susceptibility to erosion. The interpolated maps were overlaid on subwatershed maps to prioritize the subwatershed for planning treatment measures.     

A Case Study: Heavy Rainfall Event Comparison Between Daily Satellite Rainfall Estimation Products with IMD Gridded Rainfall Over Peninsular India During 2015 Winter Monsoon

India Meteorological department (IMD) used INSAT-3D Metrological Satellite Imager data to drive two type rainfall estimation products viz-Hydro Estimate (HE) and INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) on half hourly rainfall rate and daily accumulated rainfall in millimeter (mm). Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) product is being derived by NASA and JAXA by using Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellites data. IMSRA and GPM (IMERG) are gridded data at 10 km spatial resolution and HE is available at pixel level (4 km at Nadir). IMD provides gridded rainfall data at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution which is based on wide coverage of 6955 actual observation. In present study, validation of INSAT-3D based Hydro Estimator (HE), INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) and Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrieval for GPM (IMERG) of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellites are carried out with IMD gridded data set for heavy rainfall event during winter monsoon, over peninsular India (November–December 2015). In validation, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE), RMSE, Correlation, Skilled scores are calculated at grid level for heavy and very heavy rain categories and the values of NSE of HE (? 32.36, ? 3.12), GPM (? 68.67, ? 2.39) and IMSRA (? 0.02, 0.28) on 16th November 2015 and HE (? 13.65, ? 1.69), GPM (? 43.79, ? 2.94) and IMSRA (? 1.08, ? 1.60) on 2nd Dec 2015, for heavy and very heavy rainfall. On both days, HE is showing better rainfall estimate compare to GPM for Heavy rainfall and GPM showing better estimation for very heavy rainfall events. In all the cases IMSRA is underestimating, if daily rain fall exceeded 75 mm.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M _w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M _w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).