Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Abstract

Trends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3?mm?y^?1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7?mm?y^?1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9?mm?y^?1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from ?50?cm in northeastern Canada to 75?cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70?cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from ?15 to 50?cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20?cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7?cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites.     

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.     

Regional investigations of vertical crustal movements in the U.S., using precise relevelings and mareograph data

In the past two years, the National Geodetic Survey has been creating a data base of vertical crustal movement information. The data elements are relative elevation changes along lines of releveling which are used to produce graphic displays on microfilm. In separate studies, the releveling data, together with information extracted from mareograph records, have been used to create two networks of velocity differences. The two networks, one in the vicinity of Chesapeake Bay and the other covering the Gulf Coast states, have been adjusted in order to prepare maps showing the velocities of elevation change. In the adjustments, the velocities derived from mareograph records were treated as observations. The results indicate annual subsidence ranging between −1.2 mm and −4.0 mm in the Chesapeake Bay area, with significant local variation. In the Gulf Coast region there is generally slight subsi'dence along the coast, ranging between 0.0 and −1.5 mm/year. Stability and slight uplift is indicated to the north where bedrock reaches the terrain surface. Anomalous subsidence of −7.0 mm/year occurs at New Orleans, La., and at Houston, Texas, there has been several decimeters change in the last ten years.     

Place,gender and the appeal of video lottery terminal gambling: unpacking a focus group study of Montreal youth

Youth gambling has become an important public health issue in Canada and elsewhere owing to the known associations between gambling and delinquency, family dysfunction and suicide. Modern electronic and virtual gambling activities like video lottery terminals (VLTs) may have particular appeal to youth who have been raised in social environments that are increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies. The main objective of the study was to explore why youth gamble and what makes gambling activities like VLTs popular to youth in the places where youth live, study and play. The research is framed within a population health perspective that recognizes the role of social and physical environments in influencing health-related behaviours. Group discussions were conducted with youth to explore the popularity and appeal of gambling and VLTs, and how gambling fits into the daily routines of youth and the spaces they occupy. Methodologically, this research was conscious of responding to calls in the literature to analyze focus groups as an interactive group process rather a collection of individual responses, and to exercise analytic rigour by explicitly making the research team’s positionality and the data collection process transparent. Group discussions revealed gender differences in the appeal of particular gambling activities with young males being more likely to discuss poker, dice, sports-betting and online gambling as exciting social activities, while females described lottery and scratch (instant win) tickets as fun solitary activities. Substantive results point to the need for interventions to address social aspects of gambling that appeal, in particular, to young males potentially through increased provision of healthier alternatives to social engagement and greater attention to young people’s use of space.     

Equations of state for the NaCl-H2O-CH4 system and the NaCl-H2O-CO2-CH4 system: Phase equilibria and volumetric properties above 573 k

An equation of state (EOS) based on thermodynamic perturbation theory is presented for the NaCl-H₂O-CH₄ system. This equation consistently reproduces PvTX properties and phase equilibria with an accuracy close to that of data in the temperature, pressure and concentration ranges from 648 K to 873 K, 0 to 2500 bar and up to 2.37 mol % NaCl. Good agreement with recent ternary immiscibility data from 673 K to 873 K suggests that the EOS may provide accurate predictions for NaCl concentrations as high as 40 mol %. We could not find any experimental data above 873 K that can be used to validate the predictions of the EOS inside the ternary. However, parameters for the mixed ternary system were established from parameters evaluated for pure and binary systems and accurate combination rules. Therefore, predictions in the ternary should be reliable to the high temperatures and pressures where the EOS for the lower order systems are valid (about 1300 K and 5000 bar). Using the same combining approach, an EOS for the quaternary NaCl-H₂O-CO₂-CH₄ is constructed on the basis of parameters from our earlier model for the NaCl-H₂O-CO₂ system and the present NaCl-H₂O-CH₄ model. This suggests that predictions of the quaternary EOS are reliable also to about 1300 K and 5000 bar.     

Habitat requirements for submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay: Water quality, light regime, and physical-chemical factors

We developed an algorithm for calculating habitat suitability for seagrasses and related submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) at coastal sites where monitoring data are available for five water quality variables that govern light availability at the leaf surface. We developed independent estimates of the minimum light required for SAV survival both as a percentage of surface light passing though the water column to the depth of SAV growth (PLW _min) and as a percentage of light reaching reaching leaves through the epiphyte layer (PLL _min). Value were computed by applying, as inputs to this algorithm, statistically dervived values for water quality variables that correspond to thresholds for SAV presence in Chesapeake Bay. These estimates ofPLW _min andPLL _min compared well with the values established from a literature review. Calcultations account for tidal range, and total light attenuation is partitioned into water column and epiphyte contributions. Water column attenuation is further partitioned into effects of chlorophylla (chla), total suspended solids (TSS) and other substances. We used this algorithm to predict potential SAV presence throughout the Bay where calculated light available at plant leaves exceededPLL _min. Predictions closely matched results of aerial photographic monitoring surveys of SAV distribution. Correspondence between predictions and observations was particularly strong in the mesohaline and polythaline regions, which contain 75–80% of all potential SAV sites in this estuary. The method also allows for independent assessment of effects of physical and chemical factors other than light in limiting SAV growth and survival. Although this algorithm was developed with data from Chesapeake Bay, its general structure allows it to be calibrated and used as a quantitative tool for applying water quality data to define suitability of specific sites as habitats for SAV survival in diverse coastal environments worldwide.     

Mixing of magmas from enriched and depleted mantle sources in the northeast Pacific: West Valley segment,Juan de Fuca Ridge

The 50 km-long West Valley segment of the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is a young, extension-dominated spreading centre, with volcanic activity concentrated in its southern half. A suite of basalts dredged from the West Valley floor, the adjacent Heck Seamount chain, and a small near-axis cone here named Southwest Seamount, includes a spectrum of geochemical compositions ranging from highly depleted normal (N-) MORB to enriched (E-) MORB. Heck Seamount lavas have chondrite-normalized La/Sm_cn0.3, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70235–0.70242, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.22–18.44, requiring a source which is highly depleted in trace elements both at the time of melt generation and over geologic time. The E-MORB from Southwest Seamount have La/Sm_cn1.8, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70245–0.70260, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=18.73–19.15, indicating a more enriched source. Basalts from the West Valley floor have chemical compositions intermediate between these two end-members. As a group, West Valley basalts from a two-component mixing array in element-element and element-isotope plots which is best explained by magma mixing. Evidence for crustal-level magma mixing in some basalts includes mineral-melt chemical and isotopic disequilibrium, but mixing of melts at depth (within the mantle) may also occur. The mantle beneath the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge is modelled as a plum-pudding, with plums of enriched, amphibole-bearing peridotite floating in a depleted matrix (DM). Low degrees of melting preferentially melt the plums, initially removing only the amphibole component and producing alkaline to transitional E-MORB. Higher degrees of melting tap both the plums and the depleted matrix to yield N-MORB. The subtly different isotopic compositions of the E-MORBs compared to the N-MORBs require that any enriched component in the upper mantle was derived from a depleted source. If the enriched component crystallized from fluids with a DM source, the plums could evolve to their more evolved isotopic composition after a period of 1.5–2.0 Ga. Alternatively, the enriched component could have formed recently from fluids with a less-depleted source than DM, such as subducted oceanic crust. A third possibility is that enriched material might be dispersed as plums throughout the upper mantle, transported from depth by mantle plumes.     

Salinity history of coastal marshes reconstructed from diatom remains

Sediment cores were collected from three Louisiana coastal marsh ponds, dated with radioisotopes, and analyzed for diatom remains to determine if long-term salinity changes were evident in the sediment record. A diatom-based salinity index formulated from a statistical comparison of available salinity data and changing diatom assemblages demonstrated that diatom remains appear to preserve salinity signals in coastal brackish and salt marsh environments. The salinity index was applied to sediment cores spanning the late 1600s to the 1990s and provided a more complete record of salinity than field data, which were temporally and spatially incomplete. The salinity reconstructions indicated that salinity has increased at two sites and decreased at a third since the early 1900s. The salinity changes are less than 1‰ per decade in all cases, and may be due to natural variability as depicted by the wide range of salinities observed between the late 1600s and 1900. Salinity regimes may be very localized (<2 km from a hydrologic source), indicating single-site studies may not be applicable to regional inferences. This study demonstrates that diatoms can be used to reconstruct past salinity in coastal marsh environments and can provide a useful tool with which to study the changing hydrology of river-influenced ecosystems.     

Conditions of core formation in the earth: Constraints from Nickel and Cobalt partitioning

The abundances of Ni and Co in the Earth’s mantle are depleted relative to chondrites due to terrestrial core formation. Recently, the observed mantle depletions of these elements have been explained by liquid metal-liquid silicate equilibrium during core formation in a high pressure, high temperature magma ocean on the early Earth. However, different magma ocean models, which would be expected to give consistent results, have proposed vastly different pressures (24 to 59 GPa), temperatures (2200 to >4000 K) and oxygen fugacities (−0.15 to −2.4 ΔIW) for the Earth’s magma ocean. In an attempt to resolve the contradictory results from different magma ocean models and determine the thermodynamic conditions appropriate for core formation in the Earth, experiments were conducted to better constrain the influences of temperature and C on the partitioning behaviors of Ni and Co. Results of experiments at 7 GPa with temperatures of 1923-2673 K show that the metal-silicate partition coefficients for both Ni and Co decrease with increasing temperature, with the effect being more significant for Ni. Little change in the partitioning behaviors of either Ni or Co with varying C-content of the metallic liquid was found. By combining the new temperature data with previous results from pressure and oxygen fugacity studies, we parameterized the partitioning behavior of Ni and Co and applied the parameterizations to core formation in a terrestrial magma ocean. Multiple combinations of pressure, temperature, and oxygen fugacity can explain the observed mantle depletions of Ni and Co, and all of the very different previously proposed magma ocean conditions are generally consistent with valid solutions. By using the FeO content of the Earth’s mantle as an additional constraint on the oxygen fugacity, magma ocean conditions of 30-60 GPa, > 2000 K, and −2.2 ΔIW are suggested. Similar systematic approaches and studies of other moderately siderophile elements could further constrain the magma ocean conditions on the early Earth.     

Crystallization of magmatic iron meteorites: The effects of phosphorus and liquid immiscibility

Abstract— Magmatic iron meteorites are commonly thought to have formed by fractional crystallization of the metallic cores of asteroid‐sized bodies. As fractional crystallization proceeds, light elements such as P and S become enriched in the molten portion of the core. The light element content of the metallic liquid influences the partitioning behavior of trace elements and may cause liquid immiscibility to occur. The elemental trends observed in magmatic iron meteorites may have been affected by both of these processes. We have examined experimentally the effect of P on the solid‐metal‐liquid‐metal partitioning behavior of Ag and Pd, Re and Os, two element pairs used to date iron meteorite processes. Phosphorus has no effect on the partition coefficient of either Ag or Pd, which are incompatible and identical within experimental error. Compatible Re and Os also have identical partitioning behavior, within experimental error, and show increasing compatibility in the solid metal with increasing P content of the metallic liquid. Including the effects of both S and P on the partitioning behavior of Re and Os, simple fractional crystallization calculations can reproduce the large variation of Re and Os concentrations observed in four magmatic iron meteorite groups but have difficulty matching the later crystallizing portions of the trends. We have also conducted experiments with three phases—solid metal and two immiscible metallic liquids—to determine the location of the liquid immiscibility field near conditions thought to be relevant to magmatic iron meteorites. Our results show a significantly smaller liquid immiscibility field as compared to the previously published Fe‐P‐S phase diagram. Our revised phase diagram suggests that liquid immiscibility was encountered during the crystallization of asteroidal cores, but much later during the crystallization process than predicted by the previously published diagram.