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761.
Dryer M. Fry C.D. Sun W. Deehr C. Smith Z. Akasofu S.-I. Andrews M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284
Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues
to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time
prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day')
flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as
part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and
ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions
of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third
model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT,
15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks
through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display
them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported
flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15
July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as
an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to
describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the
asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch
represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and
simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier
as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward
space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867 相似文献
762.
763.
Abstract— Measurements of He isotopes in cluster interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) from stratospheric dust collector L2009 reveal anomalous 3He/4He ratios comparable to those seen earlier, up to ~40x the solar wind ratio, in particles from the companion collector L2011. These overabundances of 3He in the L2009 samples are masked by much higher 4He contents compared to the L2011 particles, and are visible only in minor gas fractions evolved by stepwise heating at high temperatures. Cosmic‐ray induced spallogenic reactions are efficient producers of 3He. The majority of this paper is devoted to a detailed assessment of the possible role of spallation in generating the 3He excesses in these and other cluster IDPs. A model of collisional erosion and fragmentation during inward transit through the interplanetary dust environment is used to estimate space lifetimes of particles from asteroidal and Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt sources. Results of the modeling indicate that Poynting–Robertson orbital evolution timescales of IDPs small enough to elude destruction on their way to Earth from either location are far shorter than the cosmic‐ray exposure ages required to account for observed 3He overabundances. Grains large enough to have sufficiently long space residence times are fragmented close to their sources. An alternative to long in‐space exposure could be prolonged irradiation of particles buried in parent body regoliths prior to their ejection as IDPs. A qualitative calculation suggests, however, that collisional erosion of asteroidal upper‐regolith materials is likely to occur on timescales shorter than the > 1 Ga burial times needed for accumulation of spallogenic 3He to the levels seen in several cluster particles. In contrast, regoliths on Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt objects may be stable enough to account for the 3He excesses, and delivery of heavily pre‐irradiated IDPs to the inner solar system by short‐period Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt comets remains a possibility. A potential problem is that the expected associated abundances of spallation‐produced 21Ne appear to be absent, although here the present IDP data base is too sparse and for the most part too imprecise to rule out a spallogenic origin. Relatively short periods of pre‐ejection residence in asteroidal regoliths may be responsible for the curiously broad exposure age distributions reported for micrometeorites extracted from Greenland and sea‐floor sediments. 相似文献
764.
We present 2-D, fully compressible radiation-MHD simulations of the solar photospheric and subphotospheric layers that run for 2 hours of solar time starting from a magnetic configuration with mixed polarities. In the atmospheric layers the simulation reveals a correlation between field strength and inclination, with a nearly vertical strong-field magnetic component and a more horizontal weak-field component, in agreement with the observations. Our simulation also shows that magnetic flux is converted from one of these states to the other. In particular, magnetic flux sheets can also be formed when a new downflow lane starts due to granule fragmentation. The dynamics of the granulation and field-line reconnection are found to play a role in the initial stages of a magnetic element's formation. The simulation predicts that during or shortly after their formation magnetic elements could be associated with oppositely polarized flux at a small spatial scale. 相似文献
765.
766.
C.J. Mooney W.R.J. Rolleston F.P. Keenan P.L. Dufton D.L. Pollacco H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109
We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T eff =26 500±1000 K and log g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity. 相似文献
767.
R. A.Street KeithHorne T. A.Lister A.Penny Y.Tsapras A.Quirrenbach N.Safizadeh J.Cooke D.Mitchell A.Collier Cameron 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,330(3):737-754
We report on the discovery of 25 variable stars plus 13 suspected variables found in the field of the open cluster NGC 6819. The stars were identified from time-series photometric data obtained on the Isaac Newton Telescope, La Palma, during two observing runs covering the 19 nights between 1999 June 22–30 and 1999 July 22–31 . The variables found include 12 eclipsing binaries with an additional three suspected, nine BY Draconis systems, plus four variables of other types, including one star believed to be a Cepheid. Three of the 15 eclipsing binaries are believed to be cluster members. Details of a further 10 suspected variable stars are also included. 相似文献
768.
K. C. WELTEN K. NISHIIZUMI J. MASARIK M. W. CAFFEE A. J. T. JULL S. E. KLANDRUD R. WIELER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(2):301-317
Abstract— We measured the concentrations of 10Be, 26Al, 36Cl, 41Ca and 14C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced 36Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 105 years) and 41Ca (1.04 times 105 years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture 36Cl and 41Ca, as well as spallation produced 10Be and 26Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 103 years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for 36Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for 41Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced 10Be, 26Al and 36Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture 41Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ~150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 103 years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture 36Cl, but no excess of 41Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ~1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured 10Be/21Ne and 26Al/21Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture 36Ar (from decay of 36Cl) result in concordant 21Ne and 38Ar exposure ages. 相似文献
769.
R. T. Schilizzi W. Aldrich B. Anderson A. Bos R. M. Campbell J. Canaris R. Cappallo J. L. Casse A. Cattani J. Goodman H. J. van Langevelde A. Maccafferri R. Millenaar R. G. Noble F. Olnon S. M. Parsley C. Phillips S. V. Pogrebenko D. Smythe A. Szomoru H. Verkouter A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67
770.
Prediction of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters using Instance-Based Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this article we present a method for the automated prediction of stellar atmospheric parameters from spectral indices.
This method uses a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selection of relevant spectral indices and prototypical stars and predicts
their properties, using the k-nearest neighbors method (KNN). We have applied the method to predict the effective temperature,
surface gravity, metallicity, luminosity class and spectral class of stars from spectral indices. Our experimental results
show that the feature selection performed by the genetic algorithm reduces the running time of KNN up to 92%, and the predictive
accuracy error up to 35%.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献