A Multiple Flare Scenario where the Classic Long-Duration Flare Was Not the Source of a CME

A series of flares (GOES class M, M and C) and a CME were observed in close succession on 20 January 2004 in NOAA 10540. Radio observations, which took the form of types II, III and N bursts, were associated with these events. We use the combined observations from TRACE, EIT, Hα images from Kwasan, MDI magnetograms and GOES to understand the complex development of this event. Contrary to a standard interpretation, we conclude that the first two impulsive flares are part of the CME launch process while the following long-duration event flare represents simply the recovery phase. Observations show that the flare ribbons not only separate but also shift along the magnetic inversion line so that magnetic reconnection progresses stepwise to neighboring flux tubes. We conclude that “tether cutting” reconnection in the sheared arcade progressively transforms it to a twisted flux tube, which becomes unstable, leading to a CME. We interpret the third flare, a long-duration event, as a combination of the classical two-ribbon flare with the relaxation process following forced reconnection between the expanding CME structure and neighboring magnetic fields. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Use of the population potential model for predicting the growth of cities in a region (with reference to Moscow Oblast)

"A modification of the population potential model is used to analyze the structure of the potential of population for cities of the Moscow region, to develop a relationship between population potential and city size, and to use this procedure to forecast future population change in Moscow Oblast cities." Cities in the region with a population of 50,000 or more at the censuses of 1959, 1970, and 1979 are included.     

Detection and extraction of signals from the epoch of reionization using higher-order one-point statistics

Detecting redshifted 21-cm emission from neutral hydrogen in the early Universe promises to give direct constraints on the epoch of reionization (EoR). It will, though, be very challenging to extract the cosmological signal (CS) from foregrounds and noise which are orders of magnitude larger. Fortunately, the signal has some characteristics which differentiate it from the foregrounds and noise, and we suggest that using the correct statistics may tease out signatures of reionization. We generate mock data cubes simulating the output of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) EoR experiment. These cubes combine realistic models for Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and the noise with three different simulations of the CS. We fit out the foregrounds, which are smooth in the frequency direction, to produce residual images in each frequency band. We denoise these images and study the skewness of the one-point distribution in the images as a function of frequency. We find that, under sufficiently optimistic assumptions, we can recover the main features of the redshift evolution of the skewness in the 21-cm signal. We argue that some of these features – such as a dip at the onset of reionization, followed by a rise towards its later stages – may be generic, and give us a promising route to a statistical detection of reionization.     

Extensive-Dilatancy Anisotropy (Eda) Inferred From Observations of Crustal Shear Waves Generated By A Refraction Experiment In Northern Scandinavia

Summary. Particle-motion plots of shear waves have been studied for the section FG of the FENNOLORA seismic experiment. Shear-wave splitting is observed on some records and the polarization of the first arriving shear waves show two peaks at about N35°W and N65°E. These results can be interpreted as being due to crack-induced anisotropy with the crack direction dominated by a (dominant) horizontal stress around N35°W. This is consistent with in situ stress measurements and focal mechanism studies in Scandinavia. the results show that seismic refraction experiments may be useful in providing evidence of crack-induced anisotropy in the stable continental crust.     

Palaeolimnological records of shallow lake biodiversity change: exploring the merits of single versus multi-proxy approaches

Shallow lakes are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world and many contemporary studies have demonstrated declines in biodiversity due to anthropogenic forcing. Mostly, however, these studies have not covered the full period of human-induced diversity change in lakes which is typically over decades-centuries. Here we provide two examples of palaeoecological studies focussed on reconstructing biodiversity changes in contrasting shallow lake environments that demonstrate the efficacy of the approach—a shallow UK lake and a suite of floodplain lakes (called billabongs) in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. In the Murray-Darling billabongs, complex sedimentary processes operate, sediment chronologies are less certain and replication of sites is needed to confirm patterns. The combination of sediment records from 10 billabongs showed that diatom diversity changes pre- and post-European (>1850) disturbance were inconsistent; however, reductions in diversity were more common and appear to reflect reductions in macrophyte abundance. At Felbrigg Lake, a multi-proxy study with strong chronological control demonstrated divergent responses of macrophyte, diatom, cladoceran and chironomid richness and diversity to a century of eutrophication. Eutrophication of the site was qualitatively inferred from changes in the macrophyte community in turn reconstructed from plant macrofossils. Benthic cladocerans showed a consistent decline in richness through the record, reflecting the gradual reduction in their macrophyte associated habitat over the past century. Diatom richness and diversity responses were complex, with increases in diversity and richness linked to both increases and decreases in macrophyte species richness and abundance. Chironomid richness and diversity patterns were less consistently linked to eutrophication. The loss of the dominant zooplanktivore (perch) in the 1970s was reflected in the richness and diversity profiles for all groups. Our study reveals clear potential for using sediment cores to infer biodiversity change in shallow lakes and shallow lake regions. However, given the contrasting patterns of diversity change for the different biological groups both in Felbrigg Lake and between Felbrigg and the billabongs, caution is required when interpreting whole-ecosystem biodiversity changes (or the absence of change) based on single as opposed to multi-proxy studies.     

Linear polarization of precataclysmic variables

The optical linear polarization of three precataclysmic variables was measured in B and R. A noticeable polarization was detected only in BD +50°2869. In the other two cases, the polarization is probably interstellar in origin.     

Internal structure of Europa and Callisto

Models of the internal structure of completely differentiated Europa and partially differentiated Callisto have been constructed on the basis of Galileo gravity measurements, geochemical constraints on composition of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites, and thermodynamic data on the equations of state of water, high-pressure ices, and meteoritic material. We assume thermal and mechanical equilibrium for the interiors of the satellites. A geophysically and geochemically permissible thickness of Europa's outer water-ice shell lies between 105 and 160 km (6.2-9.2% of total mass). Our results show that the bulk composition of the rock-iron core of Europa may be described by material approaching the L/LL-type chondrites in composition, but cannot be correlated either with the material of CI chondrites or H chondrites. For Europa's L/LL-chondritic models, core radii are estimated to be 470-640 km (5.3-12.5% of total mass). The allowed thickness of Europa's H₂O layer ranges from 115±10 km for a differentiated L/LL-type chondritic mantle with a crust to 135±10 km for an undifferentiated mantle. We show that Callisto must only be partially differentiated into an outer ice-I layer, a water ocean, a rock-ice mantle, and a rock-iron core (mixture of anhydrous silicates and/or hydrous silicates + FeFeS alloy). We accept that the composition of the rock-iron material of Callisto is similar to the bulk composition of L/LL-type chondritic material containing up to 10-15% of iron and iron sulfide. Assuming conductive heat transfer through the ice-I crust [Ruiz, 2001. The stability against freezing of an internal liquid-water ocean on Gallisto. Nature, 412, 409-411], heat flows were estimated and the possibility of the existence of a water ocean in Callisto was evaluated. The liquid phase is stable (not freezing) beneath the ice crust, if the heat flow is between 3.3 and 3.7 mW m⁻², which corresponds to the heat flow from radiogenic sources. The thickness of the ice-I crust is 135-150 km, and that of the underlying water layer, 120-180 km. The results of modeling support the hypothesis that Callisto may have an internal liquid-water ocean. The allowed total (maximum) thickness of the outer water-ice shell is up to 270-315 km. Rock-iron core radii, depending on the presence or absence of hydrous silicates, do not exceed 500-700 km, the thickness of an intermediate ice-rock mantle is not less than 1400 km, and its density is in the range of 1960-2500 kg m⁻³. The surface temperature of Callisto is expected to be 100-112 K. The total amount of H₂O in Callisto is found to be 49-55 wt%. The correspondence between the density and moment of inertia values for bulk ice-free Io, rock-iron core of ice-poor Europa, and rock-iron cores of Ganymede and Callisto shows that their bulk compositions may be, in general, similar and may be described by the composition close to a material of the L/LL-type chondrites with the (Fe_tot/Si) weight ratios ranging from 0.9 to 1.3. Planetesimals composed of these types of ordinary chondrites could be considered as analogues of building material for the rock-iron cores of the Galilean satellites. Similarity of bulk composition of the rock-iron cores of the inner and outer satellites implies the absence of iron-silicon fractionation in the protojovian nebula.     

Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N₂] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes) above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs). The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help to create the positive ionospheric disturbances both at middle and low latitudes. Minor contributions arise from the general density enhancement of all constituents during geomagnetic storms, which favours ion production processes above ion losses at fixed height under day-light conditions.     

Comparisons between the reproductive biology of black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Teleostei: Sparidae) in four estuaries with widely differing characteristics

The reproductive biology of Acanthopagrus butcheri has been studied in the permanently open Swan River and intermittently open Moore River estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia (31--32 °S) and in the permanently open Nornalup Walpole and normally closed Wellstead estuaries on the southern coast of Western Australia (34--35 °S). Trends exhibited by gonadosomatic indices, gonadal maturity stages and the sizes and developmental stages of the oocytes demonstrate that A. butcher typically spawns in spring and early summer. However, spawning occurred in salinities ranging from as low as 3.5-8 g L^–1 in the Moore River Estuary to as high as 41-45 g L^–1 in the Wellstead Estuary. Furthermore, water temperatures during spawning were greater in the two northern estuaries (19.7--28.5 °C) than in the two southern and cooler estuaries (17.5--23.4 °C). Histological studies strongly indicate that A. butcheri spawn more than once in a breeding season and demonstrate that the development of its oocytes exhibits group synchrony sensu de Vlaming (1983). The ages and total lengths at which, on average, female and male A. butcheri both first attain maturity in the Swan River Estuary were ca 2 years and ca 215 mm. However, the age at which individual fish in that system reach maturity was influenced by body size. This suggests that the attainment of first maturity at an older age but smaller length in the Moore River and Nornalup Walpole estuaries than is the case in the Swan River Estuary is a consequence of the slower growth rates of A. butcheri in those estuaries. The combination of the young age (ca 2 years) but small length (ca 145 mm) at which maturity is first attained in the Wellstead Estuary could have resulted from selection pressures brought about by high mortality rates and/or heavy fishing pressure in this estuary. The mean fecundity of A. butcheri, based on the combined number of yolk vesicle and yolk granule oocytes found in ovaries just prior to the onset of spawning, was 1580 × 10³. The significance of the sizes at first maturity, minimum legal length for capture, mesh selectivity data and closure of certain regions of estuaries to fishing for the management of the recreational and commercial fishery for A. butcheri is discussed.