Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction

Numerical models can be useful for explaining poorly understood phenomena or for reliable quantitative predictions. When modeling a multi-scale system, a ‘top-down’ approach—basing models on emergent variables and interactions, rather than explicitly on the much faster and smaller scale processes that give rise to them—facilitates both goals. Parameterizations representing emergent interactions range from highly simplified and abstracted to more quantitatively accurate. Empirically based large-scale parameterizations lead more reliably to accurate large-scale behavior than do parameterizations of much smaller scale processes. Conversely, purposefully simplified representations of model interactions can enhance a model's utility for explanation, clarifying the key feedbacks leading to an enigmatic behavior. For such potential insights to be relevant, the interactions in the model need to correspond to those in the ‘real’ system in some straightforward way. Such a correspondence usually holds for models constructed for predictive purposes, although this is not a requirement. The goals motivating a modeling endeavor help determine the most appropriate modeling strategies, as well as the most appropriate criteria for judging model usefulness.     

Characterizing groundwater flow in a faulted karst system using optical brighteners from septic systems as tracers

This study used optical brighteners (OB) released from septic systems to show that groundwater flow direction is largely controlled by the structural framework in a faulted karst groundwater system. Effective protection of groundwater resources requires that groundwater systems are adequately characterized and source water protection areas (SWPA) are developed for drinking water wells. Karst aquifers are among the most sensitive to contamination due to high recharge rates, and among the most difficult aquifers to characterize due to heterogeneity, and anisotropy. Because septic systems may be used to treat wastewater within SWPAs for karst aquifers there is a need to characterize these groundwater systems using tracers. The objective of this study was to characterize groundwater flow in a faulted portion of the Edwards aquifer in Bexar County, Texas using OB that are released as incidental tracers from septic systems. This study included measurement of water levels, sampling of groundwater and surface water, analysis for OB, and spatial analysis in a GIS. Results show that OB intensities were highest to the southwest of the septic area, a direction that is sub-parallel to the fault and fracture orientation and nearly perpendicular to the hydraulic gradient. This indicates that movement of OB, solutes, or non-aqueous liquids/solids in a faulted karst system can be largely controlled by fault/fracture orientation and structural relay ramps.     

Dilemmas of development in Oceania: the political economy of the Tongan agro-export sector

This article critically engages with the recent diffusion of the orthodox development model in Oceania and highlights some evolving dilemmas. In particular, it explores the social, economic and ecological tensions arising from economic reforms that are exacerbating the fragility of already vulnerable nation-states and communities. In order to illustrate its arguments, a case study of the impacts of agro-export growth in Tonga is presented. Attention is drawn to the socially inequitable and ecologically unsustainable outcomes of rapid growth in this sector. In analyzing the political economy of the squash pumpkin sector, the authors point to the important role that culture plays in mediating and conditioning development outcomes. Reflecting on the Tongan case, it is argued that to better understand the implications of orthodox developmental reform in the region, research must seek to more explicitly incorporate distributional and ethical analysis.     

Three-dimensional MHD simulation of interplanetary magnetic field changes at 1 AU as a consequence of simulated solar flares

A fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, MHD interplanetary global model (3D IGM) has been used, for the first time, to study the relationship between different forms of solar activity and transient variations of the north-south component, B_z, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at 1 AU. One form of solar activity, the flare, is simulated by using a pressure pulse at different locations near the solar surface and observing the simulated IMF evolution of B (=-B_z) at 1 AU. Results show that, for a given pressure pulse, the orientation of the corresponding transient variation of B_z has a strong relationship to the location of the pressure pulse and the initial conditions of the IMF. Two initial IMF conditions are considered: a unipolar Archimedean spiral with outward polarity and a flat heliospheric current sheet (HCS) with outward polarity in the northern hemisphere and which gradually reverses polarity in the solar equatorial plane to inward polarity in the southern heliospheric hemisphere. The wave guide effect of the HCS is also demonstrated.     

Generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks

It is well known that most MHD shocks observed within 1 AU are MHD fast shocks. Only a very limited number of MHD slow shocks are observed within 1 AU. In order to understand why there are only a few MHD slow shocks observed within 1 AU, we use a one-dimensional, time-dependent MHD code with an adaptive grid to study the generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks (ISS) in the solar wind. Results show that a negative, nearly square-wave perturbation will generate a pair of slow shocks (a forward and a reverse slow shock). In addition, the forward and the reverse slow shocks can pass through each other without destroying their characteristics, but the propagating speeds for both shocks are decreased. A positive, square-wave perturbation will generate both slow and fast shocks. When a forward slow shock (FSS) propagates behind a forward fast shock (FFS), the former experiences a decreasing Mach number. In addition, the FSS always disappears within a distance of 150R_⊙ (where R_⊙ is one solar radius) from the Sun when there is a forward fast shock (with Mach number \geq1.7) propagating in front of the FSS. In all tests that we have performed, we have not discovered that the FSS (or reverse slow shock) evolves into a FFS (or reverse fast shock). Thus, we do not confirm the FSS-FFS evolution as suggested by Whang (1987).     

Statistical Characteristics of CMEs and Flares Associated with Solar Type II Radio Bursts

We present results from a study of sunspots and faculae on continuum and Caii K images taken at the San Fernando Observatory (SFO) during 1989–1992; a total of approximately 800 images in each bandpass were used. About 18000 red sunspots, 147000 red faculae, and 800000 Caii K faculae were identified based on their contrasts. In addition, we computed the contrasts of pixels on the red images cospatial with Caii K faculae. Sunspot contrasts show a strong dependence on size but no dependence on heliocentric angle. There are continuous but systematic differences among facular regions. We find that the contrast of Caii K faculae is relatively insensitive to heliocentric angle, but is a strong function of facular size, in the sense that larger Caii K faculae are always brighter. The contrast of red faculae is a function of both heliocentric angle and size: the contrast functions show that larger regions contain larger flux tubes, contain deeper flux tubes, and have larger filling factors than small facular regions. Comparisons of cospatial pixels on red and Caii K images show a tight correlation between the average contrast of a region in the continuum and its size and heliocentric angle in the Caii K images. The average contrast of all facular regions is positive everywhere on the disk, even though the largest regions contain flux tubes which appear dark at disk center.     

The termination of the last major phase of aeolian sand movement,coastal dunefields,Denmark

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sand samples from stabilized (or inactive) coastal dunes in Denmark provides information on the age of the termination phase of the last major aeolian activity period. A total of 26 sand samples were taken from four different coastal dunefields around the North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat coasts of Denmark. The OSL dates indicate that the last major phase of aeolian activity terminated between ad 1860 and 1905. Most of the dunes examined in this study were active around 1820, during a period documented to have been very stormy. A dune management scheme started around 1792, and this no doubt was a major cause of dunefield stabilization, but an overall decline of storminess, particularly spring and summer storminess, around the end of the 19th century must also have contributed to the increasing inactivity of coastal dunes. The new OSL dates on aeolian sand movement agree well with historical data and data from topographic maps on dune movement. This agreement supports the observation from earlier work that OSL dating of recent aeolian sand movement is accurate over the last few decades to centuries. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large phreatomagmatic vent complex at Coombs Hills, Antarctica: Wet, explosive initiation of flood basalt volcanism in the Ferrar-Karoo LIP

The Mawson Formation and correlatives in the Transantarctic Mountains and South Africa record an early eruption episode related to the onset of Ferrar-Karoo flood basalt volcanism. Mawson Formation rocks at Coombs Hills comprise mainly (≥80% vol) structureless tuff breccia and coarse lapilli tuff cut by irregular dikes and sills, within a large vent complex (>30 km²). Quenched juvenile fragments of generally low but variable vesicularity, accretionary lapilli and country rock clasts within vent-fill, and pyroclastic density current deposits point to explosive interaction of basalt with groundwater in porous country rock and wet vent filling debris. Metre-scale dikes and pods of coherent basalt in places merge imperceptibly into peperite and then into surrounding breccia. Steeply dipping to sub-vertical depositional contacts juxtapose volcaniclastic rocks of contrasting componentry and grainsize. These sub-vertical tuff breccia zones are inferred to have formed when jets of debris + steam + water passed through unconsolidated vent-filling deposits. These jets of debris may have sometimes breached the surface to form subaerial tephra jets which fed subaerial pyroclastic density currents and fall deposits. Others, however, probably died out within vent fill before reaching the surface, allowing mixing and recycling of clasts which never reached the atmosphere. Most of the ejecta that did escape the debris-filled vents was rapidly recycled as vents broadened via lateral quarrying of country rock and bedded pyroclastic vent-rim deposits, which collapsed along the margins into individual vents. The unstratified, poorly sorted deposits comprising most of the complex are capped by tuff, lapilli tuff and tuff breccia beds inferred to have been deposited on the floor of the vent complex by pyroclastic density currents. Development of the extensive Coombs Hills vent-complex involved interaction of large volumes of magma and water. We infer that recycling of water, as well as recycling of pyroclasts, was important in maintaining water supply for phreatomagmatic interactions even when aquifer rock in the vent walls lay far from eruption sites as a consequence of vent-complex widening. The proportion of recycled water increased with vent-complex size in the same way that the proportion of recycled tephra did. Though water recycling leaves no direct rock record, the volcaniclastic deposits within the vent complex show through their lithofacies/structural architecture, lithofacies characteristics, and particle properties clear evidence for extensive and varied recycling of material as the complex evolved. Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan