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41.
A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Feng?Shi Quansheng?GeEmail author Bao?Yang Jianping?Li Fengmei?Yang Fredrik?Charpentier?Ljungqvist Olga?Solomina Takeshi?Nakatsuka Ninglian?Wang Sen?Zhao Chenxi?Xu Keyan?Fang Masaki?Sano Guoqiang?Chu Zexin?Fan Narayan?P.?Gaire Muhammad?Usama?Zafar 《Climatic change》2015,131(4):663-676
To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400. 相似文献
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Abdur Rehman Cheema Regina Scheyvens Bruce Glavovic Muhammad Imran 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):2207-2229
The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in disaster management by documenting and analysing its role in rural settings in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. The study examines the role of the mosque in relation to key actors from the state, civil society and private sector during response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation phases of the Pakistan earthquake. Using qualitative research methods and a case study design, this article analyses primary data collected through 5 months of fieldwork (in 2009 and 2010). The findings demonstrate the multifaceted and distinct contribution of the mosque in cultural, economic, social and political aspects of the lives of the earthquake-affected communities. Possible challenges to engagement with the mosque, both gender inclusiveness and political controversy around its role, are also raised. This research suggests that state, civil society and private sector actors involved in disaster management need to understand complex relationships involving people and their religious institutions, and their impact on the social dimension of recovery. The findings of the study contribute to the scarce knowledge about the role of community-based religious institutions including churches, mosques, synagogues and temples and call for engagement: that is, acknowledging and valuing their role for building a synergy between secular and religious efforts for disaster risk reduction and post-disaster recovery. 相似文献
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ISLAM Muhammad RAZZAQ Abdul ZUBAIR Muhammad HASSAN Sawsan AHMAD Sarfraz GUL Shamim RISCHKOWSKY Barbara LOUHAICHI Mounir 《山地科学学报》2022,(1):46-57
Scrub rangelands support livestock grazing and provide ecosystem services to their inhabitants.The present study was conducted in Chakwal,an important tract of ... 相似文献
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Ishfaq Ahmad Umer Saeed Muhammad Fahad Asmat Ullah M. Habib ur Rahman Ashfaq Ahmad Jasmeet Judge 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(10):1701-1711
Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R2 of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool. 相似文献
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Comparative analysis of bacterial contamination in tap and groundwater: A case study on water quality of Quetta City,an arid zone in Pakistan 下载免费PDF全文
Water is an essential element on earth, which provides human a variety of services in domestic use, agriculture, or industries. However, some serious health risks of drinking water are associated with microbial contamination, particularly with fecal matter. Therefore, microbial quality assessment is considered to be a necessary component of water quality assessment. This study investigates microbial contamination of water distributary system around the city by comparing groundwater (GW) and tap water (TW) quality in Quetta city. 31 GW samples and 31 TW samples were collected in the study area during the months of September, October, and November. Fecal coliform test was carried out in laboratory and their average total coliform contamination was computed. Results showed that the TW sample were all contaminated by coliform except for Chiltan town, hence are not considered suitable for drinking without any treatment according to WHO drinking water quality standards. The average coliform concentrations were 12 in Quetta main city, 11.6 in Jinnah town, 5.3 in Satallite town, 10 in Shahbaz town and 5 in Brewery town (0/100 mL CFU) and the TW samples from the three towns were even more contaminated with E.coli. Whereas among the GW, average microbial concentrations were 1.8 in Quetta main city, 2 in Satallite town, 1.4 in Shahbaz town, and 0.4 in Chiltan town (0/100 mL CFU), respectively, which shows that the contamination is occurring within the water distributary pipeline system when the water flows through the pipelines. Moreover, this research will be valuable for researchers and administrative authorities to conduct elaborative studies, and develop new policies to prevent further deterioration of drinking water in the water distribution system by pathogenic microorganisms and ensure safe drinking water to the public of Quetta city. 相似文献
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Li Zhenya Ali Zulfiqar Cui Tong Qamar Sadia Ismail Muhammad Nazeer Amna Faisal Muhammad 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(1):547-566
Natural Hazards - The increase of frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change gives evidence of severe challenges faced by infrastructure systems. Among them, the... 相似文献
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