Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

Statistical Study and Prediction of Variability of Erythemal Ultraviolet Irradiance Solar Values in Valencia,Spain

The goal of this study was to statistically analyse the variability of global irradiance and ultraviolet erythemal (UVER) irradiance and their interrelationships with global and UVER irradiance, global clearness indices and ozone. A prediction of short-term UVER solar irradiance values was also obtained. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were included in the data set, as well as a time series of ultraviolet irradiance variability (UIV). The study period was from 2005 to 2014 and approximately 250,000 readings were taken at 5-min intervals. The effect of the clearness indices on global irradiance variability (GIV) and UIV was also recorded and bi-dimensional distributions were used to gather information on the two measured variables. With regard to daily GIV and UIV, it is also shown that for global clearness index (k_t) values lower than 0.6 both global and UVER irradiance had greater variability and that UIV on cloud-free days (k_t higher than 0.65) exceeds GIV. To study the dependence between UIV and GIV the χ² statistical method was used. It can be concluded that there is a 95% probability of a clear dependency between the variabilities. A connection between high k_t (corresponding to cloudless days) and low variabilities was found in the analysis of bi-dimensional distributions. Extreme values of UVER irradiance were also analyzed and it was possible to calculate the probable future values of UVER irradiance by extrapolating the values of the adjustment curve obtained from the Gumbel distribution.     

Fungal communities in PAH-impacted sediments of Genoa-Voltri Harbour (NW Mediterranean, Italy)

Organic matter (in terms of carbohydrates and proteins), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and bacterial density were investigated in the sediments of three stations in Genoa-Voltri Harbour (NW Mediterranean), and related to the sedimentary fungal community. Sites were significantly different in all investigated parameters (ANOVA, p<0.05), and a sharp gradient of impact in the area was found. All the 81 strains of filamentous fungi isolated, belonging to 7 genera, appeared to be linked with PAHs (p<0.05; r=0.95), whereas bacterial density was positively correlated with organic matter content (p<0.05; r=0.98). Within the fungal community, strains with a high capability to degrade xenobiotics were found. Among the genera identified, Penicillium, Mucor and Cladosporium showed the highest frequency in the sites where the heaviest concentrations of PAHs were recorded. This study suggests that fungal communities are important for in situ degradation of xenobiotics in impacted sediments.     

Temperate rainforest response to climate change and disturbance agents in northwestern Patagonia (41°S) over the last 2600 years

We present detailed pollen and charcoal records from Lago Pichilafquén (~ 41°S) to decipher the effects of climate change and varying disturbance regimes on the composition and structure of the vegetation on the Andean foothills of northwestern Patagonia during the last 2600 yr. Here, temperate rainforests have dominated the landscape since 2600 cal yr BP with variations ranging from cool-temperate and wet north Patagonian rainforests to relatively warm and summer-drought-resistant Valdivian rainforests. We interpret relatively warm/dry conditions between 1900–2600, 690–750 and 320–430 cal yr BP, alternating with cold/wet conditions between 1500–1900, 750–1100 and 430–690 cal yr BP. Rapid deforestation and spread of plants introduced by Europeans occurred at 320 and 140 cal yr BP. The record includes five tephras with ages of 2130, 1460, 1310, 1210, and 340 cal yr BP, all of which precede local fire events and increases in trees favored by disturbance by less than 100 yr. We conclude that centennial-scale changes in the southern westerlies were the primary driver of vegetation shifts in northwestern Patagonia over the last 2600 yr. Within this interval, local disturbance regimes altered the structure, composition, and dynamics of the lowland rainforest vegetation during several discrete, short-lived episodes.     

Middle Miocene peralkaline ignimbrites in the Hermosillo region (Sonora, Mexico): Geodynamic implications

Scattered ignimbritic mesas crop out in the Hermosillo region (Sonora, Mexico). These rocks that have been dated at 12.5 Ma (Middle Miocene) have the petrography and chemical characteristics of comendites. Such a flare-up of peralkaline acidic volcanism, after a long period of subduction-related arc volcanism, emphasises an important change in the source of volcanism. It corresponds to the latest stage of continental extension prior to the marine invasion and the development of spreading centres in the Gulf of California. To cite this article: J. Vidal Solano et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Precise radiocarbon dating of Late-Glacial cooling in mid-latitude South America

Variability of atmospheric ¹⁴C content often complicates radiocarbon-based chronologies; however, specific features such as periods of constant ¹⁴C age or steep changes in radiocarbon ages can be useful stratigraphic markers. The Younger Dryas event in the Northern Hemisphere is one of those periods, showing conspicuous ¹⁴C wiggles. Although the origin of those variations is not fully understood, we can make practical use of them and determine: (i) whether the Younger Dryas was global in extent; if so, (ii) were the initial cooling and the final warming synchronous worldwide; and (iii) what are the implications of these similarities/differences? Here we report high-resolution AMS ¹⁴C chronologies from the mid-latitudes of South America that pinpoint a cool episode between 11,400 and 10,200¹⁴C yr B.P. The onset of the final cool episode of the Late Glacial in the southern mid-latitudes, i.e., the Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, preceded the onset of the Younger Dryas cold event by ∼550 calendar years. Both events ended during a radiocarbon-age plateau at ∼10,200¹⁴C yr B.P. Thus, the Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal encompasses the Younger Dryas, as well as a couple of short-term cool/warm oscillations that immediately preceded its onset in the North Atlantic region.     

Abrupt Vegetation and Climate Changes During the Last Glacial Maximumand Last Termination in The Chilean Lake District: A Case Study from Canal De La Puntilla (41°S)

ABSTRACT. Multiple overlapping and replicate pollen stratigraphies from Canal de la Puntilla (40°57’09”S, 72°54’18”W, 120 m elevation) reveal that a Nothofagus dombeyi-type parkland occupied the Valle Central of the Chilean Lake District during the portion of the Last Glacial Maximum between 20,200 and about 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP . Dominating this landscape was Nothofagus dombeyi-type and Gramineae, accompanied by taxa commonly found today in Subantarctic environments and above the Andean tree-line in the Lake District (Perezia-type, Valeriana, and Huperzia selago), along with cushion bog taxa characteristic of Magellanic Moorlands (Donatia fascicularis and Astelia pumila). Within this open landscape Nothofagus dombeyi-type expanded between 20,200 and 15,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , interrupted by a brief reversal between 19,200 and 18,800 ¹⁴ C yr BP and followed by a prominent increase in Gramineae pollen between 15,800 and about 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP . A major rise of Nothofagus dombeyi-type began at about 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by decline in non-arboreal taxa and a remarkable expansion of North Patagonian Rain Forest taxa in pulses centered at 14,200 and 13,000 ¹⁴C yr BP . Podocarpus nubigena expanded between 12,200 and 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP , along with increases in Misodendrum and Maytenus disticha-type between 11,000 and 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP. Paleovegetation records suggest that mean annual temperature was 6–7°C colder than at present during the coldest episodes between 20,200 and about 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP , with twice the modern annual precipitation between 20,200 and 13,000 ¹⁴C yr BP, suggesting a northward shift and intensification of westerly stormtracks. Slight climate warming occurred between 20,200 and 15,800 ¹⁴C yr BP , interrupted by cooling events at 19,200 and 15,800 ¹⁴C yr BP . The initial warming of the last termination started at 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by warming pulses at 14,200 and 13,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. These events brought glacial conditions to a cool-temperate climate, slightly cooler and wetter than modern climate, accounting for a total temperature recovery of ≥5°C by about 13,000 ¹⁴C yr BP . A general reversal in trend is inferred with cooling events at 12,200 and 11,000 ¹⁴C yr BP .     

Observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 around the Deep Impact event by the OSIRIS cameras onboard Rosetta

The OSIRIS cameras on the Rosetta spacecraft observed Comet 9P/Tempel 1 from 5 days before to 10 days after it was hit by the Deep Impact projectile. The Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) monitored the cometary dust in 5 different filters. The Wide Angle Camera (WAC) observed through filters sensitive to emissions from OH, CN, Na, and OI together with the associated continuum. Before and after the impact the comet showed regular variations in intensity. The period of the brightness changes is consistent with the rotation period of Tempel 1. The overall brightness of Tempel 1 decreased by about 10% during the OSIRIS observations. The analysis of the impact ejecta shows that no new permanent coma structures were created by the impact. Most of the material moved with . Much of it left the comet in the form of icy grains which sublimated and fragmented within the first hour after the impact. The light curve of the comet after the impact and the amount of material leaving the comet ( of water ice and a presumably larger amount of dust) suggest that the impact ejecta were quickly accelerated by collisions with gas molecules. Therefore, the motion of the bulk of the ejecta cannot be described by ballistic trajectories, and the validity of determinations of the density and tensile strength of the nucleus of Tempel 1 with models using ballistic ejection of particles is uncertain.     

Addressing uncertainty in reflectivity‐rainfall relations in mountain watersheds during summer convection

The use of precipitation estimates from weather radar reflectivity has become widespread in hydrologic predictions. However, uncertainty remains in the use of the nonlinear reflectivity–rainfall (Z‐R) relation, in particular for mountainous regions where ground validation stations are often lacking, land surface data sets are inaccurate and the spatial variability in many features is high. In this study, we assess the propagation of rainfall errors introduced by different Z‐R relations on distributed hydrologic model performance for four mountain basins in the Colorado Front Range. To do so, we compare spatially integrated and distributed rainfall and runoff metrics at seasonal and event time scales during the warm season when convective storms dominate. Results reveal that the basin simulations are quite sensitive to the uncertainties introduced by the Z‐R relation in terms of streamflow, runoff mechanisms and the water balance components. The propagation of rainfall errors into basin responses follows power law relationships that link streamflow uncertainty to the precipitation errors and streamflow magnitude. Overall, different Z‐R relations preserve the spatial distribution of rainfall relative to a reference case, but not the precipitation magnitude, thus leading to large changes in streamflow amounts and runoff spatial patterns at seasonal and event scales. Furthermore, streamflow errors from the Z‐R relation follow a typical pattern that varies with catchment scale where higher uncertainties exist for intermediate‐sized basins. The relatively high error values introduced by two operational Z‐R relations (WSR‐57 and NEXRAD) in terms of the streamflow response indicate that site‐specific Z‐R relations are desirable in the complex terrain region, particularly in light of other uncertainties in the modelling process, such as model parameter values and initial conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and related chemistry in the solar system. A guaranteed time key programme for Herschel

“Water and related chemistry in the Solar System” is a Herschel Space Observatory Guaranteed-Time Key Programme. This project, approved by the European Space Agency, aims at determining the distribution, the evolution and the origin of water in Mars, the outer planets, Titan, Enceladus and the comets. It addresses the broad topic of water and its isotopologues in planetary and cometary atmospheres. The nature of cometary activity and the thermodynamics of cometary comae will be investigated by studying water excitation in a sample of comets. The D/H ratio, the key parameter for constraining the origin and evolution of Solar System species, will be measured for the first time in a Jupiter-family comet. A comparison with existing and new measurements of D/H in Oort-cloud comets will constrain the composition of pre-solar cometary grains and possibly the dynamics of the protosolar nebula. New measurements of D/H in giant planets, similarly constraining the composition of proto-planetary ices, will be obtained. The D/H and other isotopic ratios, diagnostic of Mars’ atmosphere evolution, will be accurately measured in H₂O and CO. The role of water vapor in Mars’ atmospheric chemistry will be studied by monitoring vertical profiles of H₂O and HDO and by searching for several other species (and CO and H₂O isotopes). A detailed study of the source of water in the upper atmosphere of the Giant Planets and Titan will be performed. By monitoring the water abundance, vertical profile, and input fluxes in the various objects, and when possible with the help of mapping observations, we will discriminate between the possible sources of water in the outer planets (interplanetary dust particles, cometary impacts, and local sources). In addition to these inter-connected objectives, serendipitous searches will enhance our knowledge of the composition of planetary and cometary atmospheres.