Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69°E (around A?kale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?? and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M _W = 6.0 Elaz?? earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.     

The Effect of Hydraulic Gradient and Pattern of Conduit Systems on Tracing Tests: Bench-Scale Modeling

Tracer breakthrough curves provide valuable information about the traced media, especially in inherently heterogeneous karst aquifers. In order to study the effect of variations in hydraulic gradient and conduit systems on breakthrough curves, a bench scale karst model was constructed. The bench scale karst model contains both matrix and a conduit. Eight tracing tests were conducted under a wide range of hydraulic gradients from 1 to greater than 5 for branchwork and network-conduit systems. Sampling points at varying distances from the injection point were utilized. Results demonstrate that mean tracer velocities, tracer mass recovery and linear rising slope of the breakthrough curves were directly controlled by hydraulic gradient. As hydraulic gradient increased, both one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration decreased. The results demonstrate the variations in one half the time for peak concentration and one fifth the time for peak concentration of the descending limb for different sampling points under differing hydraulic gradients are mainly controlled by the interactions of advection with dispersion. The results are discussed from three perspectives: different conduit systems, different hydraulic-gradient conditions, and different sampling points. The research confirmed the undeniable role of hydrogeological setting (i.e., hydraulic gradient and conduit system) on the shape of the breakthrough curve. The extracted parameters (mobile-fluid velocity, tracer-mass recovery, linear rising limb, one half the time for peak concentration, and one fifth the time for peak concentration) allow for differentiating hydrogeological settings and enhance interpretations the tracing tests in karst aquifers.     

Impacts of Methane on Carbon Dioxide Storage in Brine Formations

In the context of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), carbon dioxide (CO₂) is often injected into deep formations saturated with a brine that may contain dissolved light hydrocarbons, such as methane (CH₄). In this multicomponent multiphase displacement process, CO₂ competes with CH₄ in terms of dissolution, and CH₄ tends to exsolve from the aqueous into a gaseous phase. Because CH₄ has a lower viscosity than injected CO₂, CH₄ is swept up into a ‘bank’ of CH₄‐rich gas ahead of the CO₂ displacement front. On the one hand, this may provide a useful tracer signal of an approaching CO₂ front. On the other hand, the emergence of gaseous CH₄ is undesirable because it poses a leakage risk of a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO₂ if the cap rock is compromised. Open fractures or faults and wells could result in CH₄ contamination of overlying groundwater aquifers as well as surface emissions. We investigate this process through detailed numerical simulations for a large‐scale GCS pilot project (near Cranfield, Mississippi) for which a rich set of field data is available. An accurate cubic‐plus‐association equation‐of‐state is used to describe the non‐linear phase behavior of multiphase brine‐CH₄‐CO₂ mixtures, and breakthrough curves in two observation wells are used to constrain transport processes. Both field data and simulations indeed show the development of an extensive plume of CH₄‐rich (up to 90 mol%) gas as a consequence of CO₂ injection, with important implications for the risk assessment of future GCS projects.     

Integration of aquifer geology,groundwater flow and arsenic distribution in deltaic aquifers – A unifying concept

Groundwater arsenic (As) presents a public health risk of great magnitude in densely populated Asian delta regions, most acutely in the Bengal Basin (West Bengal, India and Bangladesh). Research has focused on the sources, mobilisation, and heterogeneity of groundwater As, but a consistent explanation of As distribution from local to basin scale remains elusive. We show for the Bengal Aquifer System that the numerous, discontinuous silt‐clay layers together with surface topography impose a hierarchical pattern of groundwater flow, which constrains As penetration into the aquifer and controls its redistribution towards discharge zones, where it is re‐sequestered to solid phases. This is particularly so for the discrete periods of As release to groundwater in the shallow subsurface associated with sea level high‐stand conditions of Quaternary inter‐glacial periods. We propose a hypothesis concerning groundwater flow ( S ilt‐clay layers I mpose H ierarchical groundwater flow patterns constraining A rsenic progression [SIHA]), which links consensus views on the As source and history of sedimentation in the basin to the variety of spatial and depth distributions of groundwater As reported in the literature. SIHA reconciles apparent inconsistencies between independent, in some cases contrasting, field observations. We infer that lithological and topographic controls on groundwater flow, inherent to SIHA, apply more generally to deltaic aquifers elsewhere. The analysis suggests that groundwater As may persist in the aquifers of Asian deltas over thousands of years, but in certain regions, particularly at deeper levels, As will not exceed low background concentrations unless groundwater flow systems are short‐circuited by excessive pumping.     

Earthquake relocation in the Central Alborz region of Iran using a non-linear probabilistic method

In this study, we calculate accurate absolute locations for nearly 3,000 shallow earthquakes (≤20 km depth) that occurred from 1996 to 2010 in the Central Alborz region of northern Iran using a non-linear probabilistic relocation algorithm on a local scale. We aim to produce a consistent dataset with a realistic assessment of location errors using probabilistic hypocenter probability density functions. Our results indicate significant improvement in hypocenter locations and far less scattering than in the routine earthquake catalog. According to our results, 816 earthquakes have horizontal uncertainties in the 0.5–3.0 km range, and 981 earthquakes are relocated with focal-depth errors less than 3.0 km, even with a suboptimal network geometry. Earthquake relocated are tightly clustered in the eastern Tehran region and are mainly associated with active faults in the study area (the Mosha and Garmsar faults). Strong historical earthquakes have occurred along the Mosha and Garmsar faults, and the relocated earthquakes along these faults show clear north-dipping structures and align along east–west lineations, consistent with the predominant trend of faults within the study region. After event relocation, all seismicity lies in the upper 20 km of the crust, and no deep seismicity (>20 km depth) has been observed. In many circumstances, the seismicity at depth does not correlate with surface faulting, suggesting that the faulting at depth does not directly offset overlying sediments.     

PM10 Source Apportionment in Ahvaz,Iran, Using Positive Matrix Factorization

Source apportionment of particulate matter <10 µm in diameter (PM₁₀), having considerable impacts on human health and the environment, is of high priority in air quality management. The present study, therefore, aimed at identifying the potential sources of PM₁₀ in an arid area of Ahvaz located in southwest of Iran. For this purpose, we collected 24‐h PM₁₀ samples by a high volume air sampler. The samples were then analyzed for their elemental (Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Se, Si, Sn, Sr, Li, Ti, V, Zn, Mo, and Sb) and ionic (NH, Cl^?, NO, and SO) components using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and ion chromatography instruments, respectively. Eight factors were identified by positive matrix factorization: crustal dust (41.5%), road dust (5.5%), motor vehicles (11.5%), marine aerosol (8.0%), secondary aerosol (9.5%), metallurgical plants (6.0%), petrochemical industries and fossil fuel combustion (13.0%), and vegetative burning (5.0%). Result of this study suggested that the natural sources contribute most to PM₁₀ particles in the area, followed closely by the anthropogenic sources.     

Probabilistic analysis of soil‐structure interaction effects on the seismic performance of structures

This paper revisits the phenomenon of dynamic soil‐structure interaction (SSI) with a probabilistic approach. For this purpose, a twofold objective is pursued. First, the effect of SSI on inelastic response of the structure is studied considering the prevailing uncertainties. Second, the consequence of practicing SSI provisions of the current seismic design codes on the structural performance is investigated in a probabilistic framework. The soil‐structure system is modeled by the sub‐structure method. The uncertainty in the properties of the soil and the structure is described by random variables that are input to this model. Monte Carlo sampling analysis is employed to compute the probability distribution of the ductility demand of the structure, which is selected as the metrics for the structural performance. In each sample, a randomly generated soil‐structure system is subjected to a randomly selected and scaled ground motion. To comprehensively model the uncertainty in the ground motion, a suite of 3269 records is employed. An extensive parametric study is conducted to cover a wide range of soil‐structure systems. The results reveal the probability that SSI increases the ductility demand of structures designed based on the conventional fixed‐based assumption but built on flexible soil in reality. The results also show it is highly probable that practicing SSI provisions of modern seismic codes increase the ductility demand of the structure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic evaluation of rocking structures through performance assessment and fragility analysis

Numerical studies have been conducted for low- and medium-rise rocking structures to investigate their efficiency as earthquake-resisting systems in comparison with conventional structures. Several non-linear time-history analyses have been performed to evaluate seismic performance of selected cases at desired ground shaking levels, based on key parameters such as total and flexural story drifts and residual deformations. The Far-field record set is selected as input ground motions and median peak values of key parameters are taken as best estimates of system response. In addition, in order to evaluate the probability of exceeding relevant damage states, analytical fragility curves have been developed based on the results of the incremental dynamic analysis procedure. Small exceedance probabilities and acceptable margins against collapse, together with minor associated damages in main structural members, can be considered as superior seismic performance for medium-rise rocking systems. Low-rise rocking systems could provide significant performance improvement over their conventional counterparts notwithstanding certain weaknesses in their seismic response.     

Regional Variations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">ω</Emphasis>-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (M_max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M₁₀₀) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M_{K ? S}^max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.