Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River

Accurate prediction of the chemical constituents in major river systems is a necessary task for water quality management, aquatic life well-being and the overall healthcare planning of river systems. In this study, the capability of a newly proposed hybrid forecasting model based on the firefly algorithm (FFA) as a metaheuristic optimizer, integrated with the multilayer perceptron (MLP-FFA), is investigated for the prediction of monthly water quality in Langat River basin, Malaysia. The predictive ability of the MLP-FFA model is assessed against the MLP-based model. To validate the proposed MLP-FFA model, monthly water quality data over a 10-year duration (2001–2010) for two different hydrological stations (1L04 and 1L05) provided by the Irrigation and Drainage Ministry of Malaysia are used to predict the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen (DO). The input variables are the chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphate (PO₄), total solids, potassium (K), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N). The proposed hybrid model is then evaluated in accordance with statistical metrics such as the correlation coefficient (r), root-mean-square error, % root-mean-square error and Willmott’s index of agreement. Analysis of the results shows that MLP-FFA outperforms the equivalent MLP model. Also, in this research, the uncertainty of a MLP neural network model is analyzed in relation to the predictive ability of the MLP model. To assess the uncertainties within the MLP model, the percentage of observed data bracketed by 95 percent predicted uncertainties (95PPU) and the band width of 95 percent confidence intervals (d-factors) are selected. The effect of input variables on BOD and DO prediction is also investigated through sensitivity analysis. The obtained values bracketed by 95PPU show about 77.7%, 72.2% of data for BOD and 72.2%, 91.6% of data for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. The d-factors have a value of 1.648, 2.269 for BOD and 1.892, 3.480 for DO related to the 1L04 and 1L05 stations, respectively. Based on the values in both stations for the 95PPU and d-factor, it is concluded that the neural network model has an acceptably low degree of uncertainty applied for BOD and DO simulations. The findings of this study can have important implications for error assessment in artificial intelligence-based predictive models applied for water resources management and the assessment of the overall health in major river systems.     

Support vector machines and feed-forward neural networks for spatial modeling of groundwater qualitative parameters

The present study attempts to model the spatial variability of three groundwater qualitative parameters in Guilan Province, northern Iran, using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Data collected from 140 observation wells for the years 2002–2014 were used. Five variables, X and Y coordinates of the observation well, distance of the observation well from the shoreline, areal average 6-month rainfall depth, and groundwater level at the day of water quality sampling, were considered as primary input variables. In addition, nine qualitative variables were also considered as auxiliary input variables. Electrical conductivity (EC), sodium concentration (Na⁺), and sulfate concentration (SO₄ ^2?) of the groundwater in the region were estimated using ANNs and SVMs with different input combinations. The results showed that both ANNs and SVMs work well when the only primary input variable is the well location. The ANN yielded an RMSE of 1.03 mEq/l for SO₄ ^2?, 1.05 mEq/l for Na⁺, and 203.17 μS/cm for EC, using the X and Y coordinates of the observation wells in the study area. In the case of SVM, these values were, respectively, 0.87, 0.87, and 176.68. Considering the auxiliary input variables (pH, EC, and the concentrations of Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, and HCO₃ ^?) resulted in a significant decrease in the RMSE of both ANNs (0.22, 0.30, and 33.04) and SVMs (0.26, 0.34, and 36.23). Comparing these RMSE values with those of cokriging interpolation technique (0.59, 0.98, and 177.59) indicated that ANNs and SVMs produced more accurate estimates of the three qualitative parameters. The relative importance of auxiliary input variables was also determined using Gamma test. The output uncertainty of ANNs and SVMs were determined using p-factor and d-factor. The results showed that SVMs have less uncertainty than ANNs.     

Wrench tectonics of Abu Gharadig Basin,Western Desert,Egypt: a structural analysis for hydrocarbon prospects

Mapping based on the interpreted seismic data covering the Abu Gharadig Basin in the northern Western Desert has revealed that the deposition of the Upper Cretaceous succession was controlled by dextral wrench tectonics. This dextral shear accompanied NW movement of the African Plate relative to Laurasian Plate. Structural depth maps of the Cenomanian Bahariya Formation and the Turonian-Coniacian D and A members of Abu Roash Formation display a clear NE-SW anticline dissected by NW-SE normal faults. This anticline represents one of the en echelon folds characterizing the wrench compressional component. The interpreted normal faults reflect the extensional T-fractures associated with the wrenching tectonics. The interaction between the aforementioned NE-SW anticline with the NW-SE extensional faults further confirms the effect of the Upper Cretaceous dextral wrench tectonic. However, the influence of this wrench tectonics was gradually diminishing from the Cenomanian up to the Coniacian times. The NW-SE compressional stress of the dextral wrench compressional component during the Cenomanian up to Coniacian age was greater in NW direction than the SE direction. Three mapped structural closures which are predicted to be potential hydrocarbon traps belonging to the Bahariya Formation and Abu Roash D Member, and are recommended to be drilled in the study area, with potential reservoirs. The regularity of the en echelon array of both anticlines and normal faults within the wrench zones suggests additional closures may be located elsewhere beside the study area.     

Applying an optimized proxy-based workflow for fast history matching

History matching is still one of the main challenging parts of reservoir study especially in giant brown oil fields with lots of wells. In these cases, history matching with conventional manual technique needs many runs and takes months to get a match. In this work, an innovative approach was suggested for fast history matching in a real brown field. The workflow was employed based on an optimized proxy model for history matching of a field consisting of 14 active wells with multiple responses (which are production rate and pressure data) in the south part of Iran. The main important features of the proposed algorithm were defining a proxy model which is response surface method in which 21 model parameters were incorporated based on cubic centered face method. The proxy model was then optimized by one of the most famous algorithms which is genetic algorithm. Proxy model was successfully performed using 256 samples leading into p- value of 0.531 and R ² of 0.91 dataset. As a result, the proposed workflow and algorithm showed good and acceptable results for history matching of studied real model.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment in the new urban area of Diriyah Governorate,Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Nine seismic refraction profiles were conducted and processed to study the near-surface sediments in the new urban area of Diriyah. The 2D geoseismic models illustrate two layers: a surface layer of soft sediments and weathered to hard limestone bedrock. Moreover, microtremor measurements were performed at 38 sites for 40 min using three-component seismographs and processed to assess the peak spectral amplitude and the corresponding fundamental resonance frequency. The seismic vulnerability index at each measurement site was estimated. These results correlate well with the geotechnical borehole data. The north-western zone is highly vulnerable due to the great thickness of the soft sediments.     

Denoising and improving the quality of seismic data using combination of DBM filter and FX deconvolution

Seismic data denoising, random noise attenuation (RNA) and spike-like noise suppression, is a main consideration for improving the quality of records. RNA could increase signal to noise ratio (S/N) to avoid misinterpretation of seismic data. In this research, a novel method is created by using the combination of frequency-offset deconvolution (FXD) and decision-based median (DBM) filter for RNA from seismic data. The method is applied in two main phases; FXD is focused to remove the Gaussian noise and DBM filter is focused to attenuate the impulsive noise and spikes. To implement and verify the method, three types of data are used: two synthetic models (a model with linear events and a model with hyperbolic events) and an observed seismic section. The ability of the proposed method (FXD-DBM) in comparison of applying each in seismic RNA application is proven. The noise level is reduced obviously, and hence, the S/N of all examined seismic records is increased considerably after denoising by the combination of FX deconvolution and DBM filter. About the real seismic section, suppressing random noise and spikes show up improving the seismic reflector continuity and hence enhancing the interpretability of data. Moreover, some masked events by random noise are clarified in different parts of data after denoising using the planned method.     

Seismic and well logging interpretation for evaluation of the lower Bahariya reservoir,southwest Qarun (SWQ) Field,Gindi Basin,Egypt

This paper focuses on seismic and well log interpretations for evaluating the sandstones of the Cenomanian Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field, Gindi Basin, northern Western Desert of Egypt. The seismic profiles display a clear anticlinal structure intersected by reverse faults in the study area. This faulted anticline has been interpreted to be one of the Syrian arc system folds formed by Upper Cretaceous tectonic inversion, which resulted from the NW movement of the African Plate relative to Laurasia. This anticline has been recommended as a target for exploration by the present work as it may represent a structural trap for hydrocarbon accumulation. The sandstones of the Lower Bahariya Formation in the southwest Qarun Field display good reservoir characteristics. The interpretation of the available well log data for the SWQ-21 and SWQ-25 wells for the Lower Bahariya Formation reflects a good reservoir quality for oil production in its topmost part. This reservoir possesses low S_W (<50%), high porosity (16%), low S_W/S_XO and low BVW (<0.09) which all reflect a high potential for oil production.     

The Relationship between Fe Mineralization and Magnetic Basement Faults using Multifractal Modeling in the Esfordi and Behabad Areas (BMD), Central Iran

Multifractal modeling is a mathematical method for the separation of a high potential mineralized background from a non-mineralized background. The Concentration-Distance to Fault structures (C-DF) fractal model and the distribution of the known iron (Fe) deposits/mines seen in the Esfordi and Behabad 1:100,000 sheets from the Bafq region of central Iran are used to distinguish Fe mineralization based on their distance to magnetic basement structures and surface faults, separately, using airborne geophysical data and field surveys. Application of the C-DF fractal model for the classification of Fe mineralizations in the Esfordi and Behabad areas reveals that the main ones show a correlation with their distance from magnetic basement structures. Accordingly, the distances of Fe mineralizations with grades of Fe higher than 55% )43% < Fe ≤ 60%) are located at a distance of less than 1 km, whereas for surfacial faults with grades of 43% ≤ Fe ≤ 60%, the distances are 3162< DF ≤ 4365 m from the faults. Thus, there is a positive relationship between Fe mineralization and magnetic basement structures. Also, the proximity evidence of Precambrian high-grade Fe mineralization related to magnetic basement structures indicates syn-rifting tectonic events. Finally, this C-DF fractal model can be used for exploration of magmatic and hydrothermal ore deposits.     

Application of diffracted wave analysis to time‐lapse seismic data for CO2 leakage detection

Time‐lapse seismic analysis is utilized in CO₂ geosequestration to verify the CO₂ containment within a reservoir. A major risk associated with geosequestration is a possible leakage of CO₂ from the storage formation into overlaying formations. To mitigate this risk, the deployment of carbon capture and storage projects requires fast and reliable detection of relatively small volumes of CO₂ outside the storage formation. To do this, it is necessary to predict typical seepage scenarios and improve subsurface seepage detection methods. In this work we present a technique for CO₂ monitoring based on the detection of diffracted waves in time‐lapse seismic data. In the case of CO₂ seepage, the migrating plume might form small secondary accumulations that would produce diffracted, rather than reflected waves. From time‐lapse data analysis, we are able to separate the diffracted waves from the predominant reflections in order to image the small CO₂ plumes. To explore possibilities to detect relatively small amounts of CO₂, we performed synthetic time‐lapse seismic modelling based on the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) Otway project data. The detection method is based on defining the CO₂ location by measuring the coherency of the signal along diffraction offset‐traveltime curves. The technique is applied to a time‐lapse stacked section using a stacking velocity to construct offset‐traveltime curves. Given the amount of noise found in the surface seismic data, the predicted minimum detectable amount of CO₂ is 1000–2000 tonnes. This method was also applied to real data obtained from a time‐lapse seismic physical model. The use of diffractions rather than reflections for monitoring small amounts of CO₂ can enhance the capability of subsurface monitoring in CO₂ geosequestration projects.