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61.
Climate Dynamics - The potential link between decreasing Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winters in Europe is investigated using the enhanced resolution (horizontal atmospheric resolution of $$\sim...  相似文献   
62.
The Norwegian Channel between Skagerrak, in the southeast, and the continental margin of the northern North Sea, in the northwest, is the result of processes related to repeated ice stream activity through the last 1.1 m yr. In such periods the Skagerrak Trough (700 m deep) has acted as a confluence area for glacial ice from southeastern Norway, southern Sweden and parts of the Baltic. Possibly related to the threshold in the Norwegian Channel off Jæren (250 m deep), the ice stream, on a number of occasions over the last 400 ka, inundated the coastal lowlands and left an imprint of NW‐oriented ice directional features (drumlins, stone orientations in tills and striations). Marine interstadial sediments found up to 200 m a.s.l. on Jæren have been suggested to reflect glacial isostasy related to the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream (NCIS). In the channel itself, the ice stream activity is evidenced by mega‐scale glacial lineations on till surfaces. As a result of subsidence, the most complete sedimentary records of early phases of the NCIS are preserved close to the continental margin in the North Sea Fan region. The strongest evidence for ice stream erosion during the last glacial phase is found in the Skagerrak. On the continental slope the ice stream activity is evidenced by the large North Sea Fan, which is mainly a result of deposition of glacial‐fed debris flows. Northwards of the North Sea Fan, rapid deposition of meltwater plume deposits, possibly related to the NCIS, is detected as far north as the Vøring Plateau. The NCIS system offers a unique possibility to study ice stream related processes and the impact the ice stream development had on open ocean sedimentation and circulation.  相似文献   
63.
64.
Hypothesis testing about catchment functioning with conceptual hydrological models is affected by uncertainties in the model representation of reality as well as in the observed data used to drive and evaluate the model. We formulated a learning framework to investigate the role of observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing using conceptual models and applied it to the relatively data‐scarce tropical Sarapiqui catchment in Costa Rica. Observational uncertainties were accounted for throughout the framework that incorporated different choices of model structures to test process hypotheses, analyses of parametric uncertainties and effects of likelihood choice, a posterior performance analysis and (iteratively) formulation of new hypotheses. Estimated uncertainties in precipitation and discharge were linked to likely non‐linear near‐surface runoff generation and the potentially important role of soils in mediating the hydrological response. Some model‐structural inadequacies could be identified in the posterior analyses (supporting the need for an explicit soil‐moisture routine to match streamflow dynamics), but the available information about the observational uncertainties prevented conclusions about other process representations. The importance of epistemic data errors, the difficulty in quantifying them and their effect on model simulations was illustrated by an inconsistent event with long‐term effects. Finally we discuss the need for new data, new process hypotheses related to deep groundwater losses, and conclude that observational uncertainties need to be accounted for in hypothesis testing to reduce the risk of drawing incorrect conclusions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
65.
Even if mires have proven to be relatively reliable archives over the temporal trends in atmospheric mercury deposition, there are large discrepancies between sites regarding the magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution to the global mercury cycle. A number of studies have also revealed significant differences in mercury accumulation within the same mire area. This raises the question of which factors, other than mercury deposition, affect the sequestration of this element in peat. One such factor could be vegetation type, which has the potential to affect both interception and retention of mercury. In order to assess how small-scale differences in vegetation type can affect mercury sequestration we sampled peat and living plants along three transects on a northern Swedish mire. The mire has two distinctly different vegetation types, the central part consists of an open area dominated by Sphagnum whereas the surrounding fen, in addition to Sphagnum mosses, has an understory of ericaceous shrubs and a sparse pine cover. A few main patterns can be observed in our data; (1) Both peat and Sphagnum-mosses have higher mercury content (both concentration and inventory) in the pine-covered fen compared to the open Sphagnum area (100% and 71% higher for peat and plants, respectively). These differences clearly exceed the 33% difference observed for lead-210, which is considered as a good analogue for atmospheric mercury deposition. (2) The differences in mercury concentration between peat profiles within a single vegetation type can largely be attributed to differences in peat decomposition. (3) When growing side by side in the open Sphagnum area, the moss species Sphagnum subsecundum has significantly higher mercury concentrations compared to S. centrale (24 ± 3 and 18 ± 2 ng Hg g−1, respectively). Based on these observations we suggest that species composition, vegetation type and decomposition can affect the mercury sequestration in a peat record, and that any changes in these properties over time, or space, have the potential to modify the mercury deposition signal recorded in the peat.  相似文献   
66.
In impure chalk, the elastic moduli are not only controlled by porosity but also by contact‐cementation, resulting in relatively large moduli for a given porosity, and by admixtures of clay and fine silica, which results in relatively small moduli for a given porosity. Based on a concept of solids suspended in pore fluids as well as composing the rock frame, we model P‐wave and S‐wave moduli of dry and wet plug samples by an effective‐medium Hashin–Shtrikman model, using chemical, mineralogical and textural input. For a given porosity, the elastic moduli correspond to a part of the solid (the iso‐frame value) forming the frame of an Upper Hashin–Shtrikman bound, whereas the remaining solid is modelled as suspended in the pore fluid. The iso‐frame model is thus a measure of the pore‐stiffness or degree of cementation of the chalk. The textural and mineralogical data may be assessed from logging data on spectral gamma radiation, density, sonic velocity and water saturation in a hydrocarbon zone, whereas the iso‐frame value of a chalk may be assessed from the density and acoustic P‐wave logs alone. The iso‐frame concept may thus be directly used in conventional log‐analysis and is a way of incorporating sonic‐logging data. The Rigs‐1 and Rigs‐2 wells in the South Arne field penetrate the chalk at the same depth but differ in porosity and in water saturation although almost the entire chalk interval has irreducible water saturation. Our model, combined with petrographic data, indicates that the difference in porosity is caused by a higher degree of pore‐filling cementation in Rigs‐1. Petrographic data indicate that the difference in water saturation is caused by a higher content of smectite in the pores of Rigs‐1. In both wells, we find submicron‐size diagenetic quartz.  相似文献   
67.
This paper presents a new statistical method for assimilating precipitation data from different sensors operating over a range of scales. The technique is based on a scale-recursive estimation algorithm which is computationally efficient and able to account for the nested spatial structure of precipitation fields. The version of the algorithm described here relies on a static multiplicative cascade model which relates rainrates at different scales. Bayesian estimation techniques are used to condition rainrate estimates on measurements. The conditioning process is carried out recursively in two sweeps: first from fine to coarse scales and then from coarse to fine scales. The complete estimation algorithm is similar to a fixed interval smoother although it processes data over scale rather than time. We use this algorithm to assimilate radar and satellite microwave data collected during the tropical ocean–global atmosphere coupled ocean–atmosphere response experiment (TOGA-COARE). The resulting rainrate estimates reproduce withheld radar measurements to within the level of accuracy predicted by the assimilation algorithm.  相似文献   
68.
High-arctic fan delta recording deglaciation and environment disequilibrium   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Study of a Holocene fan delta in Adventfjorden, Spitsbergen, provides new insight into the nature of high‐arctic coastal sedimentation and deglaciation dynamics. The fjord‐side, gravelly Gilbert‐type fan delta began to form at the local marine limit c. 10 ka BP, supplied seasonally with sediment by meltwater from a cirque glacier left behind by the retreating Late Weichselian ice sheet. Relative sea level had fallen by 63 m, and the fan delta reached a radius of c. 1 km by 6 ka BP, when the relic glacier eventually melted down and fluvial activity declined. A strong influence of marine processes is recorded by the fan‐delta foreset facies, overlain by alluvium. Supplied with sediment by longshore drift, the fan‐delta front continued to advance at a lower rate, while relative sea level fell further by 5 m and ceased to fall around 5·4 ka BP. The following transgression was countered by longshore sediment supply until 4·7 ka BP, when the delta‐front beach aggraded and a spit platform began to climb onto the delta plain, recording a relative sea‐level rise of 4 m. The subsequent regression was initially non‐depositional, with the relative sea level falling by > 4 m in 200 years, outpacing fluvial supply, and the re‐emerging fan delta being swept by longshore currents. A regressive beach began to form c. 4·3 ka BP, while relative sea level gradually reached its present‐day position. The feeder braided stream was wandering across the delta plain during this time, but incised once the fan‐delta shoreline began to retreat by wave erosion and turned into a receding modern escarpment. The stream has since been adjusting its profile by gradually eroding the pre‐existing alluvium and distributing the coarse sediment supplied from catchment slopes by debrisflows and snow avalanches. Modern snowflows have also spread debris onto the abandoned fan surface. The erosional retreat of the fan delta has been accompanied by lateral shoreline accretion on both its sides. The study has important regional implications and demonstrates that Holocene fan deltas can provide a valuable record of the deglaciation history in high‐arctic terrains, where glacial deposits are scarcely preserved on land.  相似文献   
69.
The propagation of slip along a pre-existing frictional plane is formulated for the faults containing interstitial fluid. When normal and shear stresses satisfy the effective frictional law, a frictional sliding occurs stably or unstably, depending on the inhomogeneities of the surface. For a slip to rapidly sweep the surface, the pore pressure of fluid must exceed the critical value that is related to the physical or geometrical irregularities of the surface. If this condition fails, stable sliding is expected, analogous to a seismic fault creep. This prediction makes the role of water in seismic faulting more clear.  相似文献   
70.
The compressibility of an individual ion is examined, in comparison with a known set of data for the alkali halides. A simple extrapolation of ionic radius to high pressure is not acceptable, because the pressure derivative of ionic radius changes for different salts. According to the classical concept of an elastic ion, the repulsive potential energy between the ions i and j is specified by the nature of each ion as:
i + ρ j) exp[i + ρj ? r)i + ρj)]
as a function of the interionic distance r. In this expression, qi and ρi are the ionic radius and ionic compressibility, respectively, in a suitably modified meaning. Such a form of the repulsive potential fits well to the data of lattice constants and bulk moduli. The parameters qi and ρi are evaluated for alkali and halogen ions, and an anion turns out to be much more compressible than a cation. The present treatment may be usefully applied to the minerals in the Earth's mantle, which contain only a few major ions.  相似文献   
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