A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Use of targets to track 3D displacements in highly vegetated areas affected by landslides

Monitoring landslides with terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is currently a well-known technique. One problem often encountered is the vegetation that produces shadow areas on the scans. Indeed, the points behind a given obstacle are hidden and thus occluded on the point cloud. Thereby, locations monitored with terrestrial laser scanner are mostly rock instabilities and few vegetated landslides, being difficult or even impossible to survey vegetated slopes using this method with its classical non-full wave form. The Peney landslide (Geneva, Switzerland) is partially vegetated by bushes and trees, and in order to monitor its displacements during the drawdown of the Verbois reservoir located at its base, an alternative solution has been found. We combined LiDAR technique with 14 targets made of polystyrene placed at different locations inside and outside the landslide area. The obtained displacements were compared with classical measurement methods (total station and extensometer), showing good resemblance of results, indicating that the use of targets in highly vegetated areas could be an efficient alternative for mass movements monitoring.     

Possibilities of land use change analysis in a mountainous rural area: a methodological approach

Decreasing population density is a current trend in the European Union, and causes a lower environmental impact on the landscape. However, besides the desirable effect on the regeneration processes of semi-natural forest ecosystems, the lack of traditional management techniques can also lead to detrimental ecological processes. In this study we investigated the land use pattern changes in a micro-region (in North-Eastern Hungary) between 1952 and 2005, based on vectorised land use data from archive aerial photos. We also evaluated the methodology of comparisons using GIS methods, fuzzy sets and landscape metrics. We found that both GIS methods and statistical analysis of landscape metrics resulted in more or less the same findings. Differences were not as relevant as was expected considering the general tendencies of the past 60 years in Hungary. The change in the annual rate of forest recovery was 0.12%; settlements extended their area by an annual rate of 3.04%, while grasslands and arable lands had a net loss in their area within the studied period (0.60% and 0.89%, respectively). The kappa index showed a smaller similarity (~60%) between these dates but the fuzzy kappa and the aggregation index, taking into account both spatial and thematic errors, gave a more reliable result (~70–80% similarity). Landscape metrics on patch and class level ensured the possibility of a detailed analysis. We arrived at a similar outcome but were able to verify all the calculations through statistical tests. With this approach we were able to reveal significant (p < 0.05) changes; however, effect sizes did not show large magnitudes. Comparing the methods of revealing landscape change, the approach of landscape metrics was the most effective approach, as it was independent of spatial errors and ensuring a multiple way of interpretation.     

Effects of demand estimates on the evaluation and optimality of service centre locations

Public service systems, such as emergency health care, police or fire brigades, are critical for day-to-day functioning of the society. To design and operate these systems efficiently much data needs to be collected and properly utilised. Here, we use the OpenStreetMap (OSM) data to model the demand points (DPs), which approximate the geographical location of customers, and the road network, which is used to access or distribute services. We consider all inhabitants as customers, and therefore to estimate the demand, we use the available population grids. People are changing their location in the course of the day and thus the demand for services is changing accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how the used demand estimate affects the optimal design of a public service system. We calculate and compare efficient designs corresponding to two demand models, a night-time demand model when the majority of inhabitants rest at home and the demand model derived from the 24-hour average of the population density. We propose a simple measure to quantify the differences between population grids and we estimate how the size of differences affects the optimal structure of a public service system. Our analyses reveal that the efficiency of the service system is not only dependent on the placement strategy, but an inappropriate demand model has significant effects when designing a system as well as when evaluating its efficiency.     

Mid and late Holocene forest fires and deforestation in the subalpine belt of the Iberian range,northern Spain

The conversion of subalpine forests into grasslands for pastoral use is a well-knownphenomenon, although for most mountain areas the timing of deforestation has not been determined. The presence of charcoal fragments in soil profiles affected by shallow landsliding enabled us to date the occurrence of fires and the periods of conversion ofsubalpine forest into grasslands in the Urbión Mountains, Iberian Range, Spain. We found that the treeline in the highest parts of the northwestern massifs of the Iberian Range(the Urbión, Demanda, Neila, and Cebollera massifs) is currently between 1500 and 1600 m a.s.l., probably because of pastoral use of the subalpine belt, whereas in the past it would have reached almost the highest divides(at approximately 2100–2200 m a.s.l.). The radiocarbon dates obtained indicate that the transformation of the subalpine belt occurred during the Late Neolithic, Chalcolithic, Bronze Age, Iron Age, and Middle Ages. Forest clearing was probably moderate during fires prior to the Middle Ages, as the small size of the sheep herds and the local character of the markets only required small clearings, and therefore more limited fires. Thus, it is likely that the forest recovered burnt areas in a few decades; this suggests the management of the forest and grasslands following a slash-andburn system. During the Middle and Modern Ages deforestation and grassland expansion affected most of the subalpine belt and coincided with the increasing prevalence of transhumance, as occurred in other mountains in the Iberian Peninsula(particularly the Pyrenees). Although the occurrence of shallow landslides following deforestation between the Neolithic and the Roman Period cannot be ruled out, the most extensive shallow landsliding processes would have occurred from the Middle Ages until recent times.     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

Changing human-environment interactions in medium mountains: the Apuseni Mts (Romania) as a case study

The study of human-environment relationships in mountain areas is important for both theoretical and practical reasons, as many mountain areas suffer similar problems, such as depopulation, unemployment and natural hazards. Medium mountains constitute a special case within mountains, because they are more populated but less attractive as tourist destinations than high mountains. In this context, the Apuseni Mts (Romania) are considered as a case study. In this paper, we apply GIS-based, quantitative methods to characterize the strength and dynamics of human-environment interactions, taking into consideration some environmental factors (elevation, relative height, slope, river distance, lithology, land cover, natural attractions) as well as historical population and recent tourism data. We found that population density has strong (r ²>0.8) relationships with all relief factors (elevation, relative height, slope, river distance), and that best-fit functions are nonlinear. We outlined the varying demographic scenarios by elevation zones and interpreted the historically switching sign of population change versus elevation relationship. We demonstrated that lithology also has an impact on the spatial distribution of population, although it is not independent from the relief effect. The land cover of the mainly cultural landscape is very strongly correlated with relief parameters (especially slope), which suggests good adaptation. We pointed out the dominance of karst objects in the natural tourism potential of the Apuseni Mts and also explored further components of real tourism (spas, heritage, towns). Finally, we concluded that the environmental settings investigated do in fact constrain the spatial framework of society, but socio-economic changes in history can be explained from the side of society, which conforms to the theory of cultural possibilism.     

Sequence hierarchy in a Mesoproterozoic interior sag basin: from basin fill to reservoir scale,the Tombador Formation,Chapada Diamantina Basin,Brazil

The Tombador Formation exhibits depositional sequence boundaries placed at the base of extensive amalgamated fluvial sand sheets or at the base of alluvial fan conglomeratic successions that indicate basinward shifts of facies. The hierarchy system that applies to the Tombador Formation includes sequences of different orders, which are defined as follows: sequences associated with a particular tectonic setting are designated as ‘first order’ and are separated by first‐order sequence boundaries where changes in the tectonic setting are recorded; second‐order sequences represent the major subdivisions of a first‐order sequence and reflect cycles of change in stratal stacking pattern observed at 10² m scales (i.e., 200–300 m); changes in stratal stacking pattern at 10¹ m scales indicate third‐order sequences (i.e., 40–70 m); and changes in stratal stacking pattern at 10⁰ m scales are assigned to the fourth order (i.e., 8–12 m). Changes in palaeogeography due to relative sea level changes are recorded at all hierarchical levels, with a magnitude that increases with the hierarchical rank. Thus, the Tombador Formation corresponds to one‐first‐order sequence, representing a distinct intracratonic sag basin fill in the polycyclic history of the Espinhaço Supergroup in Chapada Diamantina Basin. An angular unconformity separates fluvial‐estuarine to alluvial fan deposits and marks the second‐order boundary. Below the angular unconformity the third‐order sequences record fluvial to estuarine deposition. In contrast, above the angular unconformity these sequences exhibit continental alluvial successions composed conglomerates overlain by fluvial and eolian strata. Fourth‐order sequences are recognized within third‐order transgressive systems tract, and they exhibit distinct facies associations depending on their occurrence at estuarine or fluvial domains. At the estuarine domain, they are composed of tidal channel, tidal bar and overlying shoreface heterolithic strata. At the fluvial domain the sequences are formed of fluvial deposits bounded by fine‐grained or tidal influenced intervals. Fine grained intervals are the most reliable to map in fourth‐order sequences because of their broad laterally extensive sheet‐like external geometry. Therefore, they constitute fourth‐order sequence boundaries that, at the reservoir approach, constitute the most important horizontal heterogeneity and, hence, the preferable boundaries of production zones. The criteria applied to assign sequence hierarchies in the Tombador Formation are based on rock attributes, are easy to apply, and can be used as a baseline for the study of sequence stratigraphy in Precambrian and Phanerozoic basins placed in similar tectonic settings.