Is There Evidence for Solar Forcing of Climate in the GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Record?

Changes in solar constant over an 11 yr cycle suggest a certain, but limited, degree of solar forcing of climate. The high-resolution climate (oxygen isotope) record of the Greenland GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) ice core has been analyzed for solar (and volcanic) influences. The atmospheric¹⁴C record is used as a proxy of solar change and compared to the oxygen isotope profile in the GISP2 ice core. An annual oxygen isotope profile is derived from centimeter-scale isotope measurements available for the post-A.D. 818 interval. Associated extreme summer and winter isotope ratios were found to yield similar climate information over the last millennium. The detailed record of volcanic aerosols, converted to optical depth and volcanic explosivity change, was also compared to the isotope record and the oxygen isotope response calibrated to short-term volcanic influences on climate. This calibration shows that century-scale volcanic modulation of the GISP2 oxygen isotope record can be neglected in our analysis of solar forcing. The timing, estimated order of temperature change, and phase lag of several maxima in¹⁴C and minima in¹⁸O are suggestive of a solar component to the forcing of Greenland climate over the current millennium. The fractional climate response of the cold interval associated with the Maunder sunspot minimum (and¹⁴C maximum), as well as the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age temperature trend of the past millennium, are compatible with solar climate forcing, with an order of magnitude of solar constant change of 0.3%. Even though solar forcing of climate for the current millennium is a reasonable hypothesis, for the rest of the Holocene the century-scale events are more frequent in the oxygen isotope record than in the¹⁴C record and a significant correlation is absent. For this interval, oceanic/atmospheric circulation forcing of climate may dominate. Solar forcing during the surprisingly strong 1470 yr climate cycle of the 11,000–75,000 yr B.P. interval is rather hypothetical.     

GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Ratios

The GISP2 oxygen isotope record, with its high-resolution detail, yields crucial information on past climate change. The glacial δ¹⁸O oscillations of the GISP2 core, with their very fast onsets, are templates of a prototype oscillation of variable duration with an amplitude of 3.9‰. The halfway mark of the cold–warm transition is reached in 2 years; the top is reached in 50 years. The δ¹⁸O–time gradient of the leading front is about 7.8‰ per 100 yr. After reaching the top, δ¹⁸O slowly declines by −0.14‰ per 100 yr. The duration of δ¹⁸O decline varies from a couple of centuries for fast oscillations to about 4000 yr for slower ones. The subsequent δ¹⁸O downturn during the warm–cold transition has a δ¹⁸O–time gradient of −3.2‰ per 100 yr and lasts about 80 yr.     

Climate versus changes in 13C content of the organic component of lake sediments during the Late Quarternary

Several factors influence the long-term ¹³C record of the organic component in lake sediments. Two of the more predominant ones are changes in hardness of the water and changes in organic productivity. In general, during colder climatic episodes, ¹³C values are lower. Of 12 lakes studied, 4 have ¹³C records with large changes in ¹³C content that are to a certain degree correlative with climatic changes.     

Atmospheric14C changes resulting from fossil fuel CO2 release and cosmic ray flux variability

A high-precision tree-ring record of the atmospheric¹⁴C levels between 1820 and 1954 is presented. Good agreement is obtained between measured and model calculated 19th and 20th century atmospheric Δ¹⁴C levels when both fossil fuel CO₂ release and predicted natural variations in¹⁴C production are taken into account. The best fit is obtained by using a ?-diffusion model with an oceanic eddy diffusion coefficient of 3 cm²/s, a CO₂ atmosphere-ocean gas exchange rate of 21 moles m^?2 yr^?1 and biospheric residence time of 60 years.For trees in the state of Washington the measured 1949–1951 atmospheric Δ¹⁴C level was20.0±1.2%. below the 1855–1864 level. Model calculations indicate that in 1950 industrial CO₂ emissions are responsible for at least 85% of the Δ¹⁴C decline, whereas natural variability accounts for the remaining 15%.     

Wisconsinan and Holocene Climate History from an Ice Core at Taylor Dome, Western Ross Embayment, Antarctica

Geochemical data and geophysical measurements from a 554-m ice-core from Taylor Dome, East Antarctica, provide the basis for climate reconstruction in the western Ross Embayment through the entire Wisconsinan and Holocene. In comparison with ice cores from central East and West Antarctica, Taylor Dome shows greater variance of temperature, snow accumulation, and aerosol concentrations, reflecting significant variability in atmospheric circulation and air mass moisture content. Extreme aridity during the last glacial maximum at Taylor Dome reflects both colder temperatures and a shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet and accounts for regional alpine glacier retreats and high lake levels in the Dry Valleys. Inferred relationships between spatial accumulation gradients and ice sheet configuration indicate that advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet began in late marine isotope stage 5 or early stage 4. Precise dating of the Taylor Dome core achieved by trace-gas correlation with central Greenland ice cores shows that abrupt deglacial warming at Taylor Dome was near-synchronous with the ∼14.6 ka warming in central Greenland and lags the general warming trend in other Antarctic ice cores by at least 3000 years. Deglacial warming was following by a warm interval and transient cooling between 14.6 and 11.7 ka, synchronous with the Bølling/Allerød warming and Younger Dryas cooling events in central Greenland, and out of phase with the Antarctic Cold Reversal recorded in the Byrd (West Antarctica) ice core. Rapid climate changes during marine isotope stages 4 and 3 at Taylor Dome are similar in character to, and may be in phase with, the Northern Hemisphere stadial–interstadial (Dansgaard–Oeschger) events. Results from Taylor Dome illustrate the importance of obtaining ice cores from multiple Antarctic sites, to provide wide spatial coverage of past climate and ice dynamics.