The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the climate system at hemispheric and global scales. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position through an ice-age cycle have been proposed as important drivers of global climate change due to their influence on deep-ocean circulation and changes in atmospheric CO₂. The position, intensity, and associated climatology of the southern westerlies during the last glacial maximum (LGM), however, is still poorly understood from empirical and modelling standpoints. Here we analyse the behaviour of the southern westerlies during the LGM using four coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations carried out by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). We analysed the atmospheric circulation by direct inspection of the winds and by using a cyclone tracking software to indicate storm tracks. The models suggest that changes were most significant during winter and over the Pacific ocean. For this season and region, three out four models indicate decreased wind intensities at the near surface as well as in the upper troposphere. Although the LGM atmosphere is colder and the equator to pole surface temperature gradient generally increases, the tropospheric temperature gradients actually decrease, explaining the weaker circulation. We evaluated the atmospheric influence on the Southern Ocean by examining the effect of wind stress on the Ekman pumping. Again, three of the models indicate decreased upwelling in a latitudinal band over the Southern Ocean. All models indicate a drier LGM than at present with a clear decrease in precipitation south of 40°S over the oceans. We identify important differences in precipitation anomalies over the land masses at regional scale, including a drier climate over New Zealand and wetter over NW Patagonia.     

Failure and size effect for notched and unnotched concrete beams

Modelling failure in geomaterials, concrete or other quasi‐brittle materials and proper accounting for size effect, geometry and boundary effects are still pending issues. Regularised failure models are capable of describing size effect on specimens with a specific geometry, but extrapolations to other geometries are rare, mostly because experimental data presenting size effect for different geometries and for the same material are lacking. Three‐point bending fracture tests of geometrically similar notched and unnotched specimens are presented. The experimental results are compared with numerical simulations performed with an integral‐type non‐local model. Comparisons illustrate the shortcomings of this classical formulation, which fails to describe size effect over the investigated range of geometries and sizes. Finally, experimental results are also compared with the universal size effect law. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

Tracking provenance of earth science data

Tremendous volumes of data have been captured, archived and analyzed. Sensors, algorithms and processing systems for transforming and analyzing the data are evolving over time. Web Portals and Services can create transient data sets on-demand. Data are transferred from organization to organization with additional transformations at every stage. Provenance in this context refers to the source of data and a record of the process that led to its current state. It encompasses the documentation of a variety of artifacts related to particular data. Provenance is important for understanding and using scientific datasets, and critical for independent confirmation of scientific results. Managing provenance throughout scientific data processing has gained interest lately and there are a variety of approaches. Large scale scientific datasets consisting of thousands to millions of individual data files and processes offer particular challenges. This paper uses the analogy of art history provenance to explore some of the concerns of applying provenance tracking to earth science data. It also illustrates some of the provenance issues with examples drawn from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Data Processing System (OMIDAPS) (Tilmes et al. 2004) run at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center by the first author.     

Saturn's cloud morphology and zonal winds before the Cassini encounter

Analyses of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of Saturn obtained from August 2003 to March 2004, with extensive support from ground-based telescopes, have been used to characterize the cloud morphology and motions in its atmosphere few months before the Cassini encounter. We present data on the major meteorological features as potential targets for Cassini observations. We extend our previous measurements of the zonal winds during the 1996-2002 period (A. Sánchez-Lavega et al., 2003, Nature, 423, 623-625), confirming the strong change in the equatorial jet, and the high hemispheric symmetry of the zonal wind pattern.     

The radiation force on small particles

A more complete expression for the radiation force on a small particle in the solar system is given which includes the effect of asymmetry of the thermal reradiation and also of inelastic scattering such as fluorescence. Both the Poynting-Robertson drag and the Yarkovsky effect are affected by such asymmetries and are incorporated into the formalism. For non-spherical particles the direction of the radiation force will no longer coincide with the solar irradiation.     

Dynamic analysis of dams with nonlinear slipjoints

A nonlinear, slip-joint element for analyzing the effect of discontinuities on a concrete, arch dam's seismic response is developed. The joint element has been incorporated into a finite-element-based, solution for predicting dynamic structural response. This joint model, plus the numerical procedure incorporated into the incremental solution, models inter-element impact across a joint when adjacent, structural elements separate and later collide. Collision is incorporated into the incremental analysis by calculating the exchange of momentum and energy with the equations describing eccentric, rigid-body impact. Joint material's force-deflection relations are multi-linear with hysteresis. Coulomb friction is also modeled. The joint element and numerical procedure have been tested with two models. The first is a segmented arch of seven, straight beam elements connected to one another. The arch dam has been experimentally tested. Analytical results are compared with experimental results from the sealed model. Second is a rectangular plate model subject to lateral base accelerations. One horizontal edge is fixed and the opposite edge is free. The vertical edges may be fixed or connected to the base by joint elements.     

Debris flow affecting the Cubatão Oil Refinery,Brazil

On February 6, 1994, a large debris flow developed because of intense rains in a 800-m-high mountain range called Serra do Cubatão, the local name for the Serra do Mar, located along the coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It affected the Presidente Bernardes Refinery, owned by Petrobrás, in Cubatão. The damages amounted to about US $40 million because of the muck cleaning, repairs, and 3-week interruption of the operations. This prompted Petrobrás to conduct studies, carried out by the authors, to develop protection works, which were done at a cost of approximately US $12 million. The paper describes the studies conducted on debris flow mechanics. A new criteria to define rainfall intensities that trigger debris flows is presented, as well as a correlation of slipped area with soil porosity and rain intensity. Also presented are (a) an actual grain size distribution of a deposited material, determined by laboratory and a large-scale field test, and (b) the size distribution of large boulders along the river bed. Based on theory, empirical experience and back-analysis of the events, the main parameters as the front velocity, the peak discharge and the volume of the transported sediments were determined in a rational basis for the design of the protection works. Finally, the paper describes the set of the protection works built, emphasizing their concept and function. They also included some low-cost innovative works.