The role of hyperparameters in predicting rainfall using n-hidden-layered networks

Natural Hazards - Weather prediction is one of the challenging issues around the world. It is necessary to determine the effective use of water resources and forecasting weather-related disasters....     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

Impacts of gold mine waste disposal on deepwater fish in a pristine tropical marine system

Little is known about the impacts of mine waste disposal, including deep-sea tailings, on tropical marine environments and this study presents the first account of this impact on deepwater fish communities. The Lihir gold mine in Papua New Guinea has deposited both excavated overburden and processed tailings slurry into the coastal environment since 1997. The abundances of fish species and trace metal concentrations in their tissues were compared between sites adjacent to and away from the mine. In this study (1999-2002), 975 fish of 98 species were caught. Significantly fewer fish were caught close to the mine than in neighbouring regions; the highest numbers were in regions distant from the mine. The catch rates of nine of the 17 most abundant species were lowest, and in three species were highest, close to the mine. There appears to be limited contamination in fish tissues caused by trace metals disposed as mine waste. Although arsenic (several species) and mercury (one species) were found in concentrations above Australian food standards. However, as in the baseline (pre-mine) sampling, it appears they are accumulating these metals mostly from naturally-occurring sources rather than the mine waste.     

A strong vortex in Saturn's South Pole

Saturn's southern pole was observed at high resolution by the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) during the spacecraft insertion orbit in July 2004. Cloud tracking of individual features on images taken at a wavelength of 938 nm reveal the existence of a strong polar vortex enclosed by a jet with maximum speed of relative to System III rotation frame, and peak at 87 °S planetographic latitude. Radiative transfer models of the reflected light, based on the Cassini images complemented by Hubble Space Telescope images from March 2004, indicate that the aerosol particles in the vortex are structured vertically in three detached layers. We find two hazes and one dense cloud distributed in altitude between ∼500 mbar (top of the dense cloud) and few mbar (top of the stratospheric haze), spanning a vertical altitude range of ∼200 km. The vortex area coincides with a thermal hot spot recently reported, indicating that winds decrease with altitude above polar clouds.     

The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the climate system at hemispheric and global scales. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position through an ice-age cycle have been proposed as important drivers of global climate change due to their influence on deep-ocean circulation and changes in atmospheric CO₂. The position, intensity, and associated climatology of the southern westerlies during the last glacial maximum (LGM), however, is still poorly understood from empirical and modelling standpoints. Here we analyse the behaviour of the southern westerlies during the LGM using four coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations carried out by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). We analysed the atmospheric circulation by direct inspection of the winds and by using a cyclone tracking software to indicate storm tracks. The models suggest that changes were most significant during winter and over the Pacific ocean. For this season and region, three out four models indicate decreased wind intensities at the near surface as well as in the upper troposphere. Although the LGM atmosphere is colder and the equator to pole surface temperature gradient generally increases, the tropospheric temperature gradients actually decrease, explaining the weaker circulation. We evaluated the atmospheric influence on the Southern Ocean by examining the effect of wind stress on the Ekman pumping. Again, three of the models indicate decreased upwelling in a latitudinal band over the Southern Ocean. All models indicate a drier LGM than at present with a clear decrease in precipitation south of 40°S over the oceans. We identify important differences in precipitation anomalies over the land masses at regional scale, including a drier climate over New Zealand and wetter over NW Patagonia.     

Tracking provenance of earth science data

Tremendous volumes of data have been captured, archived and analyzed. Sensors, algorithms and processing systems for transforming and analyzing the data are evolving over time. Web Portals and Services can create transient data sets on-demand. Data are transferred from organization to organization with additional transformations at every stage. Provenance in this context refers to the source of data and a record of the process that led to its current state. It encompasses the documentation of a variety of artifacts related to particular data. Provenance is important for understanding and using scientific datasets, and critical for independent confirmation of scientific results. Managing provenance throughout scientific data processing has gained interest lately and there are a variety of approaches. Large scale scientific datasets consisting of thousands to millions of individual data files and processes offer particular challenges. This paper uses the analogy of art history provenance to explore some of the concerns of applying provenance tracking to earth science data. It also illustrates some of the provenance issues with examples drawn from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Data Processing System (OMIDAPS) (Tilmes et al. 2004) run at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center by the first author.     

CMIP3 projected changes in the annual cycle of the South American Monsoon

Nine models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3 dataset are employed to examine projected changes in the South American Monsoon System annual cycle by comparing the 20th Century and SRES A2 scenarios. The following hypotheses are examined: (1) the warm season climate responses in the Southeast, Continental South Atlantic Convergence Zone (CSACZ) and Monsoon regions are related by regional circulation and moisture transport changes which, in turn, must be consistent with robust large-scale changes in the climate system, and (2) an increased threshold for convection in a warmer world may affect the timing of warm season rains. The present analysis reaffirms that the Southeast region is likely to experience increased precipitation through the warm season. Additional results exhibit more uncertainty due to large inter-model variance and disagreement in the A2 scenarios. Nevertheless several statistically significant results are found. In the Monsoon and to a lesser extent in the CSACZ region, the multi-model median suggests reduced precipitation during spring (Sep–Nov). These continental precipitation changes are accompanied by a southward shift of the maximum precipitation in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Changes in circulation include a poleward displaced South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAAC) and enhanced moisture transport associated with a strengthened northerly low level flow east of the Andes during spring. Moisture transport divergence calculations indicate unchanged divergence in the Monsoon region during spring and increased convergence in the Southeast throughout the warm season. The circulation and moisture transport changes suggest the increased precipitation in the Southeast during spring may be related to changes in the SALLJ and SAAC, which both enhance moisture transport to the Southeast. The seasonally dry Monsoon region is further affected by an increased threshold for convection in the warmer, more humid and stable climate of the 21st century, which combined with the circulation changes may weaken the onset of the rainy season. Although there is substantial variability among the models, and the results are represented by small changes compared with the multi-model variance, their statistical significance combined with their consistency with expected robust large scale changes provides a measure of confidence in otherwise tentative results. Further testing of the relationships presented here will be required to fully understand projected changes in the South American Monsoon.     

Economic evaluation of available processes for treating oxide-copper ores

Several alternatives are available for processing low-grade copper ores. These include in-situ, heap, vat and agitation leaching, and may involve the conventional cementation step or the newly developed solvent extraction—electrowinning system. Each of these techniques have their inherent economic and operating advantages and disadvantages, and the selection of the optimum process for a given copper ore is solely based on economic evaluation of the applicable processes. In this paper, efforts have been made to provide engineering feasibility estimates for the above processes under varying operational conditions, such as ore grade and price of copper.     

Qal’eh hasan ali maars,central Iran

A group of craters 120 km southeast of Kerman, the largest 1200 m across and 300 m deep, are typical maars, excavated depression with rims of bedded pyroclastic debris. Most of the crater rims are composed entirely of country rock clasts, but the largest crater yields tephrite, composed of phenocrysts of phlogopite, clinopyroxene, and olivine in a groundmass of anorthoclase, analcime, hauyne, clinopyroxene and magnetite, and a cumulate of phlogopite and clinopyroxene with highly potassic glass. The occurrence of hauyne as a ground mass mineral is a rare or unique feature. The maar field lies in the projection to the south of the Nayband fault and, with some flows near that fault, represents a province of Quaternary alkali basalt volcanism.