不受地理位置限制的地热和太阳能联合发电系统

为解决能源问题,开发可再生能源,利用闭式循环将地热系统和太阳能系统联合起来发电.发电系统可以避免因大规模开发利用地热水资源可能造成的地震、地面沉降、地热水资源衰减、地热水有害成分污染、热污染等环境问题,也可以克服地热发电和太阳能发电受地理位置限制的缺点.地热系统地下部分由两垂深3～5km的井在井底由一5～7km的水平井连接而成,水平井中流体温度可达150℃左右,适合于ORC发电.太阳能系统采用槽式聚光镜集热,集热流体可选水或油,最高温度可达350℃以上.ORC一级循环工质为水,二级循环工质为异丁烷;ORC发电效率,白天最大为20%,晚上最大为12%.系统采用化学储能,储能密度为显热储能和潜热储能的10倍以上.钻井和完井、太阳能热能转换、载热流体、ORC和储能等技术的研究结果证明该系统是可行的.     

Identifying Key Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections

What sources of uncertainty shouldbe included in climate change projections and whatgains can be made if specific sources of uncertaintyare reduced through improved research?DIALOGUE, anintegrated assessment model, has been used to answerthese questions. Central in the approach of DIALOGUEis the concept of parallel modeling, i.e., for eachstep in the chain from emissions to climate change anumber of equivalent models areimplemented. The followingconclusions are drawn:The key source of uncertainty in global temperatureprojections appears to be the uncertainty inradiative forcing models. Within this group ofmodels uncertainty within aerosol forcing models isabout equal to the total forcing of greenhouse gasmodels. In the latter group CO₂ is dominant.The least important source of uncertainty appears tobe the gas cycle models. Within this group of modelsthe role of carbon cycle models is dominant.Uncertainty in global temperature projections hasnot been treated consistently in the literature.First, uncertainty should be calculated as a productof all uncertainty sources. Second, aparticular choice of a base year for global warmingcalculations influences the ranking of uncertainty.Because of this, a comparison of ranking resultsacross different studies is hampered. We argue that`pre-Industrial' is the best choice for studies onuncertainty.There is a linear relationship between maximumuncertainty in the year 2100 and cumulativeemissions of CO₂ over the period 1990–2100:higher emissions lead to more uncertainty.     

Major shoreline retreat and sediment starvation following Snowball Earth

While cap dolostones are integral to the Snowball Earth hypothesis, the current depositional model does not account for multiple geological observations. Here we propose a model that rationalises palaeomagnetic, sequence‐stratigraphic and sedimentological data and supports rapid deglaciation with protracted cap dolostone precipitation. The Snowball Earth hypothesis posits that a runaway ice‐albedo can explain the climate paradox of Neoproterozoic glacial deposits occurring at low palaeolatitudes. This scenario invokes volcanic degassing to increase atmospheric greenhouse gases to a critical threshold that overcomes the albedo effect and brings the planet back from the ice‐covered state. Once this occurs, Earth should shift rapidly from a snowball to an extreme greenhouse. However, cap dolostone units overlying glacial sediments, typically interpreted as transgressive deposits, exhibit multiple magnetic reversals indicating they accumulated in >10⁵ years. By reviewing modern post‐glacial systems, sequence stratigraphic concepts and principles of sedimentology, we suggest that cap dolostones are not restricted to the transgression but rather represent sediment starvation following a major landward shoreline migration associated with the demise of Snowball Earth. Thus, the duration in which cap dolostone accumulated is not directly coupled to the timescale of the Snowball Earth deglaciation.     

‘Intermittent’ solar periodicities

The signal from a stable periodicity can seem to be intermittent when it is partially masked by an unmodelled window function or when the data set is too short to resolve closely spaced periodicities. By taking this into account, short-lived periodicities in solar data can be reinterpreted as evidence for continuously periodic behavior. The periodic sources are located in the solar interior and caused by global oscillation modes. The convective envelope acts as the window for these sources. Recent reports of seven periodicities from 100 to 1000 days are compared with this model. Precise long-term values for the periodicities are predicted and they agree closely with observations. Some elements are suggested that might explain the well-documented 155-day periodicity. Conventional filtering methods to suppress effects of the 11-year cycle are criticized as inadequate.     

On the normal gravity formulae

The determination of the normal gravity according to the formula

Distinguishing strongly rheomorphic tuffs from extensive silicic lavas

High-temperature silicic volcanic rocks, including strongly rheomorphic tuffs and extensive silicic lavas, have recently been recognized to be abundant in the geologic record. However, their mechanisms of eruption and emplacement are still controversial, and traditional criteria used to distinguish conventional ash-flow tuffs from silicic lavas largely fail to distinguish the high-temperature versions. We suggest the following criteria, ordered in decreasing ease of identification, to distinguish strongly rheomorphic tuffs from extensive silicic lavas: (1) the character of basal deposits; (2) the nature of distal parts of flows; (3) the relationship of units to pre-existing topography; and (4) the type of source. As a result of quenching against the ground, basal deposits best preserve primary features, can be observed in single outcrops, and do not require knowing the full extent of a unit. Lavas commonly develop basal breccias composed of a variety of textural types of the flow in a finer clastic matrix; such deposits are unique to lavas. Because the chilled base of an ashflow tuff generally does not participate in secondary flow, primary pyroclastic features are best preserved there. Massive, flow-banded bases are more consistent with a lava than a pyroclastic origin. Lavas are thick to their margins and have steep, abrupt flow fronts. Ashflow tuffs thin to no more than a few meters at their distal ends, where they generally do not show any secondary flow features. Lavas are stopped by topographic barriers unless the flow is much thicker than the barrier. Ash-flow tuffs moving at even relatively slow velocities can climb over barriers much higher than the resulting deposit. Lavas dominantly erupt from fissures and maintain fairly uniform thicknesses throughout their extents. Tuffs commonly erupt from calderas where they can pond to thicknesses many times those of their outflow deposits. These criteria may also prove effective in distinguishing extensive silicic lavas from a postulated rock type termed lava-like ignimbrite. The latter have characteristics of lavas except for great areal extents, up to many tens of kilometers. These rocks have been interpreted as ash-flow tuffs that formed from low, boiling-over eruption columns, based almost entirely on their great extents and the belief that silicic lavas could not flow such distances. However, we interpret the best known examples of lava-like ignimbrites to be lavas. This interpretation should be tested through additional documentation of their characteristics and research on the boiling-over eruption mechanism and the kinds of deposits it can produce. Flow bands, flow folds, ramps, elongate vesicles, and probably upper breccias occur in both lavas and strongly rheomorphic tuffs and are therefore not diagnostic. Pumice and shards also occur in both tuffs and lavas, although they occur throughout ash-flow tuffs and generally only in marginal breccias of lavas. Dense welding, secondary flow, and intense alteration accompanying crystallization at high temperature commonly obliterate primary textures in both thick, rheomorphic tuffs and thick lavas. High-temperature silicic volcanic rocks are dominantly associated with tholeiitic flood basalts. Extensive silicic lavas could be appropriately termed flood rhyolites.     

Ar/Ar dating of the Bandelier Tuff and San Diego Canyon ignimbrites, Jemez Mountains, New Mexico: Temporal constraints on magmatic evolution

The Jemez Mountains volcanic field (JMVF), located in north-central New Mexico, has been a site of basaltic to rhyolitic volcanism since the mid-Miocene with major caldera forming eruptions occurring in the Pleistocene. Eruption of the upper Bandelier Tuff (UBT) is associated with collapse of the Valles Caldera, whereas eruption of the lower Bandelier Tuff (LBT) resulted in formation of the Toledo Caldera. These events were previously dated by K-Ar at 1.12 ± 0.03 Ma and 1.45 ± 0.06 Ma, respectively. Pre-Bandelier explosive eruptions produced the San Diego Canyon (SDC) ignimbrites. SDC ignimbrite “B” has been dated at 2.84 ± 0.07 Ma, whereas SDC ignimbrite “A”, which underlies “B”, has been dated at 3.64 ± 1.64 Ma. Both of these dates are based on single K-Ar analyses.⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of single sanidine crystals from these units indicates revision of the previously reported dates. Isochron analysis of 26 crystals from the UBT gives a common trapped ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar component of 304.5, indicating the presence of excess ⁴⁰Ar in this unit, and defines an age of 1.14 ± 0.02 Ma. Isochron analysis of 26 crystals from the LBT indicates an atmospheric trapped component and an age of 1.51 ± 0.03 Ma. An age of 1.78 ± 0.04 Ma, based on the weighted mean of 5 individual analyses, is indicated for SDC ignimbrite “B”, whereas 3 analyses from SDC ignimbrite “A” give a weighted mean age of 1.78 ± 0.07 Ma. Evidence for xenocrystic contamination in the SDC ignimbrites comes from analyses of a correlative air-fall pumice unit in the Puye Formation alluvial fan giving ages of 1.75 ± 0.08 and 3.50 ± 0.09 Ma. The presence of xenocrysts in bulk separates used for the original K-Ar analyses could account for the significantly older ages reported.Geochemical data indicate that SDC ignimbrites are early eruptions from the magma chamber which evolved to produce the LBT, as compositions of SDC ignimbrite “B” are virtually identical to least evolved LBT samples. Differentiation during the 270-ka interval between eruption of SDC ignimbrite “B” and the LBT produced an array of high-silica rhyolite compositions which were erupted to form the LBT. Mixed pumices associated with eruption of the LBT indicated an influx of more mafic magma into the system which produced shifts in some incompatible trace-element ratios. Lavas and tephras of the Cerro Toledo Rhyolite record the geochemical evolution of the Bandelier magma system during the 370-ka interval between eruption of the LBT and the UBT.The combined geochronologic and geochemical data place the establishment and evolution of the Bandelier silicic magma system within a precise temporal framework, beginning with eruption of the SDC ignimbrites at 1.78 Ma, and define a periodicity of 270–370 ka to ash-flow eruptions in the JMVF. These intervals are comparable to those in other multicyclic caldera complexes and are a measure of the timescales over which substantial fractionation of large silicic magma bodies occur.     

Contextualizing vulnerability assessment: a support to geo-risk management in central Africa

European Union directives as well as national legislation are placing great emphasis on the inclusion of stakeholder perspectives in the governance of risks from natural hazards. This should help decision makers formulate better policies. However, to date, there is little information on stakeholders’ perspectives with respect to landslide risk governance. This paper addresses the gap by reporting on research in Nocera Inferiore, Italy. The research is based on a documentary analysis, 43 semi-structured interviews and a survey submitted to 373 residents. The political instability, the unfairness of national funding allocation across municipalities and the residents’ lack of knowledge about risk assessment and emergency planning are some of the main barriers to effective risk governance. Moreover, there are divergent, sometimes even opposite, stakeholders’ views on several issues, such as the relevance of illegal development in risky areas. The results highlight the importance of addressing these divergent views and including the plurality of voices as a prerequisite for inclusive risk governance. The research provided essential background information for a participatory process, which was designed to support decisions on landslide risk mitigation measures in Nocera Inferiore (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. this issue). The methodology will be of more general interest to researchers and policymakers intent upon including stakeholder perspectives in natural risk governance.