Comparison of derivative-free optimization methods for groundwater supply and hydraulic capture community problems

Management decisions involving groundwater supply and remediation often rely on optimization techniques to determine an effective strategy. We introduce several derivative-free sampling methods for solving constrained optimization problems that have not yet been considered in this field, and we include a genetic algorithm for completeness. Two well-documented community problems are used for illustration purposes: a groundwater supply problem and a hydraulic capture problem. The community problems were found to be challenging applications due to the objective functions being nonsmooth, nonlinear, and having many local minima. Because the results were found to be sensitive to initial iterates for some methods, guidance is provided in selecting initial iterates for these problems that improve the likelihood of achieving significant reductions in the objective function to be minimized. In addition, we suggest some potentially fruitful areas for future research.     

Data-resolution Matrix and Model-resolution Matrix for Rayleigh-wave Inversion Using a Damped Least-squares Method

Inversion of multimode surface-wave data is of increasing interest in the near-surface geophysics community. For a given near-surface geophysical problem, it is essential to understand how well the data, calculated according to a layered-earth model, might match the observed data. A data-resolution matrix is a function of the data kernel (determined by a geophysical model and a priori information applied to the problem), not the data. A data-resolution matrix of high-frequency (≥2 Hz) Rayleigh-wave phase velocities, therefore, offers a quantitative tool for designing field surveys and predicting the match between calculated and observed data. We employed a data-resolution matrix to select data that would be well predicted and we find that there are advantages of incorporating higher modes in inversion. The resulting discussion using the data-resolution matrix provides insight into the process of inverting Rayleigh-wave phase velocities with higher-mode data to estimate S-wave velocity structure. Discussion also suggested that each near-surface geophysical target can only be resolved using Rayleigh-wave phase velocities within specific frequency ranges, and higher-mode data are normally more accurately predicted than fundamental-mode data because of restrictions on the data kernel for the inversion system. We used synthetic and real-world examples to demonstrate that selected data with the data-resolution matrix can provide better inversion results and to explain with the data-resolution matrix why incorporating higher-mode data in inversion can provide better results. We also calculated model-resolution matrices in these examples to show the potential of increasing model resolution with selected surface-wave data.     

Paleoecology of a >90,000-year lacustrine sequence from Fog Lake, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

A 137 cm sediment core from Fog Lake, a small upland basin that was not glaciated during the Late Wisconsinan, reveals the following stratigraphic succession: (I) basal diamicton, (II) laminated silts, (III) compacted dewatered gyttja, (IV) stratified minerogenic sediments, and (V) overlying gyttja. Units I–III, and most of unit IV, were deposited prior to the Holocene; unit V represents approximately the last 8000 ¹⁴C years. Alternate luminescence dating techniques (TL and IRSL) place unit III in latter oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 5, >74,000 years BP. A suite of 20 AMS ¹⁴C dates suggests that much of the post-OIS 5 paleoenvironmental record is characterized by either extremely low continuous sediment accumulation, or by one or more episodes of more rapid sedimentation. Diverse pollen and spore assemblages have concentrations that are unexpectedly high throughout the pre-Holocene sediments (>10,000 grains cm⁻³), by comparison to the Holocene (5000 grains cm⁻³). Exceedingly low sediment accumulation rates appear to have resulted in the concentration of atmospherically derived pollen and spores. Diatom assemblages record the evolution of the lake's chemistry and past algal production. Several abrupt changes occurred synchronously in both the terrestrial and aquatic components of the system, and these appear to represent ecological responses to pre-Holocene climatic variability. The sediments of Fog Lake provide the first integrated paleoecological record older than Holocene for a vast region of the Canadian Arctic, thereby refining our understanding of long-term arctic ecosystem ontogeny.     

Tectonometamorphic Cycles in Different Geodynamic Conditions

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The added value of participatory modelling in fisheries management – what has been learnt?

How can uncertain fisheries science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing fisheries management legitimacy and effectiveness? Reducing the uncertainties around scientific models has long been perceived as the cure of the fisheries management problem. There is however increasing recognition that uncertainty in the numbers will remain. A lack of transparency with respect to these uncertainties can damage the credibility of science. The EU Commission's proposal for a reformed Common Fisheries Policy calls for more self-management for the fishing industry by increasing fishers' involvement in the planning and execution of policies and boosting the role of fishers' organisations. One way of higher transparency and improved participation is to include stakeholders in the modelling process itself. The JAKFISH project (Judgment And Knowledge in Fisheries Involving StakeHolders) invited fisheries stakeholders to participate in the process of framing the management problem, and to give input and evaluate the scientific models that are used to provide fisheries management advice. JAKFISH investigated various tools to assess and communicate uncertainty around fish stock assessments and fisheries management. Here, a synthesis is presented of the participatory work carried out in four European fishery case studies (Western Baltic herring, North Sea Nephrops, Central Baltic Herring and Mediterranean swordfish), focussing on the uncertainty tools used, the stakeholders' responses to these, and the lessons learnt. It is concluded that participatory modelling has the potential to facilitate and structure discussions between scientists and stakeholders about uncertainties and the quality of the knowledge base. It can also contribute to collective learning, increase legitimacy, and advance scientific understanding. However, when approaching real-life situations, modelling should not be seen as the priority objective. Rather, the crucial step in a science–stakeholder collaboration is the joint problem framing in an open, transparent way.     

Multidimensional modelling of X-ray spectra for AGN accretion disc outflows

We use a multidimensional Monte Carlo code to compute X-ray spectra for a variety of active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc–wind outflow geometries. We focus on the formation of blueshifted absorption features in the Fe K band and show that line features similar to those which have been reported in observations are often produced for lines of sight through disc–wind geometries. We also discuss the formation of other spectral features in highly ionized outflows. In particular, we show that, for sufficiently high wind densities, moderately strong Fe K emission lines can form and that electron scattering in the flow may cause these lines to develop extended red wings. We illustrate the potential relevance of such models to the interpretation of real X-ray data by comparison with observations of a well-known AGN, Mrk 766.     

The Monitor project: the search for transits in the open cluster NGC 2362

We present the results of a systematic search for transiting planets in a ∼5 Myr open cluster, NGC 2362. We observed ∼1200 candidate cluster members, of which ∼475 are believed to be genuine cluster members, for a total of ∼100 h. We identify 15 light curves with reductions in flux that pass all our detection criteria, and six of the candidates have occultation depths compatible with a planetary companion. The variability in these six light curves would require very large planets to reproduce the observed transit depth. If we assume that none of our candidates are, in fact, planets then we can place upper limits on the fraction of stars with hot Jupiters (HJs) in NGC 2362. We obtain 99 per cent confidence upper limits of 0.22 and 0.70 on the fraction of stars with HJs ( f _p) for 1–3 and 3–10 d orbits, respectively, assuming all HJs have a planetary radius of 1.5 R _Jup. These upper limits represent observational constraints on the number of stars with HJs at an age ≲10 Myr, when the vast majority of stars are thought to have lost their protoplanetary discs. Finally, we extend our results to the entire Monitor project, a survey searching young, open clusters for planetary transits, and find that the survey as currently designed should be capable of placing upper limits on f _p near the observed values of f _p in the solar neighbourhood.     

Magma–ice–sediment interactions and the origin of lava/hyaloclastite sequences in the Síða formation, South Iceland

Products of subglacial volcanism can illuminate reconstructions of paleo-environmental conditions on both local and regional scales. Competing interpretations of Pleistocene conditions in south Iceland have been proposed based on an extensive sequence of repeating lava-and-hyaloclastite deposits in the Síða district. We propose here a new eruptive model and refine the glacial environment during eruption based on field research and analytical data for the Síða district lava/hyaloclastite units. Field observations from this and previous studies reveal a repeating sequence of cogenetic lava and hyaloclastite deposits extending many kilometers from their presumed eruptive source. Glasses from lava selvages and unaltered hyaloclastites have very low H₂O, S, and CO₂ concentrations, indicating significant degassing at or close to atmospheric pressure prior to quenching. We also present a scenario that demonstrates virtual co-emplacement of the two eruptive products. Our data and model results suggest repeated eruptions under thin ice or partially subaerial conditions, rather than eruption under a thick ice sheet or subglacial conditions as previously proposed.